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Destabilizing Financial Advice: Evidence from Pension Fund Reallocations

Review of Financial Studies 2018 31(10), 3720-3755
We document a novel channel through which coordinated trading exerts externalities on financial markets. We study the impact of a financial advisory firm that recommends frequent reallocations between equity and bond funds to Chilean pension investors. The recommendations generate large and coordinated fund flows that are exacerbated by the strategic complementarity arising from fund trading restrictions. The recommendations generate significant price pressure and increased volatility in the stock market. In response to these large trade flows, pension funds shift their allocations to more liquid securities. Our findings suggest that giving retirement savers unconstrained reallocation opportunities can destabilize financial markets. Received March 11, 2016; editorial decision July 8, 2017 by Editor Itay Goldstein.

Fiscal Policy, Consumption Risk, and Stock Returns: Evidence from U.S. States

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2018 53(1), 109-136
We find that consumption risk is lower in states that implement countercyclical fiscal policies. Moreover, firms with an investor base that is concentrated in countercyclical states have lower stock returns, along with firms that relocate their headquarters to a countercyclical state. Therefore, countercyclical fiscal policies lower the consumption risk of investors and, consequently, their required equity return premium. This conclusion is confirmed by smaller declines in market participation during recessions in countercyclical states. Overall, the location of a firm’s investor base enables state-level fiscal policy to influence stock returns.