Knowledge that Transforms

Public audit oversight bodies have become ubiquitous following the establishment of the U.S. PCAOB in 2002. However, despite their cost and prominence, little is known of their economic implications, if any. We examine the relation between establishment of public audit oversight bodies (POBs) and cross-border investment. Using a difference-in-differences design, we find that after a country establishes a POB, the country attracts more foreign capital. Our results suggest that total foreign portfolio investment (FPI) increases by approximately $11 billion for the average country that establishes a POB. The impact of POBs on foreign investment is dependent on the effectiveness of the POB in improving audit quality and the strength of a country’s existing institutional environment. Our study provides evidence of real economic effects of public audit oversight around the world, which adds to the literature on auditor oversight and to the broader literature on economic consequences of regulation. Data Availability: Data are available from the public sources cited in the text.

A growing literature has examined the benefits and costs of implementing new disclosure regulations. However, little is known about the consequences when regulators fail to take action. Using IFRS adoption in 2005 as the setting, we examine the costs of regulatory inactions among non-adopting countries. We find that firms located in non-adopting countries with a higher overlap of common investors with firms in IFRS-adopting countries experience a significant decline in liquidity. Employing a within-firm-time design, we further demonstrate that analysts and institutional investors shift their attention from non-IFRS firms when other firms in their portfolios adopt IFRS. Moreover, the decline in liquidity and the associated reduction in information production by analysts and institutional investors are particularly pronounced in non-adopting countries with weak reporting enforcement actions and increasing accounting distance from IFRS standards. Overall, our findings highlight the potential costs of regulatory inaction. Valuable information production resources are diverted to the new regime, resulting in a worsened information environment for companies in the old regime.

Using regression discontinuity and difference-in-differences designs to compare prices of California homes across a new wildfire risk zone boundary, I identify null effects in the immediate vicinity of the new risk zone boundary. In contrast, prices of homes newly assigned to a riskier zone drop by 5.7% further away from the new risk zone boundary. These findings suggest that households do not respond to the risk salience triggered by the new risk zone assignment. Instead, they update their risk beliefs in response to rezoning in a way that is consistent with the actual wildfire risk.

We show that investors extrapolate from recent stock returns of locally headquartered firms when forming beliefs about aggregate stock market outcomes. While it may be optimal to rely on local information, these effects are unrelated to how informative local returns are on predictions of aggregate outcomes. Evidence from a sample of retail investors suggests this belief extrapolation is driven by investors’ own holdings of local firms. Our findings suggest that beliefs about information contained in public signals vary systematically with geography, and are an important component of local biases in equity markets.

We measure investors’ short- and long-term stock-return expectations using both options and survey data. These expectations at different horizons reveal what investors think their own short-term expectations will be in the future, or forward return expectations. Across data sources, investors’ forward return expectations are countercyclical, especially when measured as forward risk premiums. This countercyclical variation is, however, excessive, as changes in forward return expectations are too large relative to subsequent realized short-term expectations. The excess variation in forward return expectations can help account for a meaningful share of the stock-price declines during the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 crisis.

We consider an informed large shareholder who can choose between making a takeover bid herself and initiating a sale to another acquirer. Such takeover activism complements direct takeovers because the very choice mitigates the asymmetric information problem, thereby improving efficiency. As more investors enter the market for corporate control, takeover activism increasingly replaces direct takeovers as the prevailing mode of disciplinary control change, matching the evolution in practice. Our model shows how this evolution, characterized by a symbiotic relationship between investor activism and private equity, arises to overcome asymmetric information and collective action problems through intermediated transactions.

The recent inflation surge brought inflation back on people's minds. I quantify when and how much attention to inflation changes and derive the macroeconomic implications of these attention changes. I estimate an attention threshold at an inflation rate of 4 percent, that attention doubles when inflation exceeds this threshold, and that supply shocks have stronger and more persistent effects on inflation in times of high attention. Developing a model featuring the attention threshold, I show that attention changes offer a joint explanation for inflation surges, inflation's co-movement with inflation expectations, and a long last mile of disinflation.

This paper considers how far private adaptation may reduce future vulnerability to climate risks. Using data on monthly firm-to-firm transactions from Pakistan, we find that flood-affected firms are more likely to relocate to safer ground and shift purchases toward suppliers in less flood-prone regions and reached via less flood-prone roads. The results indicate that firms are imperfectly informed about flood risk and update their beliefs following floods. We quantify aggregate impacts using a spatial model of endogenous production network formation. The findings suggest that firms' learning will shape the economic impact of increasingly frequent climate-related disasters.

Schools across the U.S. have sharply restricted student use of phones during the school day. We evaluate one type of restriction—lockable phone pouches—using nationwide data combining a large-scale teacher survey, GPS pings, standardized test scores, and school administrative records, along with sales records from the largest pouch provider. Using a staggered difference-in-differences design, we find that pouch adoption substantially reduces phone use as measured by GPS pings and teacher reports. In the first year after adoption, disciplinary incidents increase, and we find suggestive evidence that student subjective well-being falls, consistent with short-term disruption. However, disciplinary effects fade, while the estimated effects on well-being appear to recover and become positive in later years. For academic achievement, average effects on test scores are consistently close to zero. High schools see modest positive effects, particularly in math, while middle schools see small negative effects. We find little evidence of effects on school attendance and no clear evidence of improvements in self-reported classroom attention or perceived online bullying.