Knowledge that Transforms

This paper investigates the wage returns to schooling and actual early work experiences and how these returns have changed over the past 20 years. Using the NLSY surveys, we develop and estimate a dynamic model of the joint schooling and work decisions that young men make in early adulthood and quantify how they affect wages using a generalized Mincerian specification. Our results highlight the need to account for dynamic selection and changes in composition when analyzing changes in wage returns. In particular, we find that ignoring the selectivity of accumulated work experiences results in overstatement of the returns to education.

We estimate turnover costs in small retail sales teams using daily sales data and an advance notice requirement to address endogeneity concerns. In addition to short-staffing and onboarding costs, we identify two less familiar sources of turnover costs: incumbent workers’ recruitment activities and reductions in team morale after a departure is announced. Our estimates of total turnover costs are relatively modest, however: 10% higher turnover is about as costly as a 0.6% wage increase. We attribute these low costs to a set of complementary personnel policies that ensure that only 25% of departures result in a short-staffing spell.

Recent research suggests that the share of US households living on less than $2/person/day is high and rising. We reexamine such extreme poverty by linking SIPP and CPS data to administrative tax and program data. We find that more than 90% of those reported to be in extreme poverty are not, once we include in-kind transfers, replace survey reports of earnings and transfer receipt with administrative records, and account for ownership of substantial assets. More than half of all misclassified households have incomes from the administrative data above the poverty line, and many have middle-class measures of material well-being.

We document that individuals who grow up in high firm density areas are more likely to become entrepreneurs, given firm density in their current location, and to run businesses in the sector with the highest density when young. Firm density at an entrepreneur’s young age drives current firm profitability and is more important than current density for business performance. Results hold in a sample of movers, which allows addressing endogeneity concerns. These results are consistent with entrepreneurial skills being partly learnable through social contacts. Accordingly, entrepreneurs who grow up in high firm density areas adopt better managerial practices.

We study the impact of trade exposure on the job biographies of 2.4 million manufacturing workers in Germany. Rising export opportunities lead to two equally important sources of earnings gains: on the job and employer switches within the same industry. Highly skilled workers benefit the most. Import shocks mostly hurt low-skilled workers, especially when they possess lots of industry-specific human capital. They also destroy workers’ rents when separating from high-wage plants, and they leave strongly scarring effects in the event of a mass layoff. We connect our results to the growing theoretical literature on the labor market effects of trade.

This paper exploits county-level variation in exposure to news about labor markets impacted by fracking to show that access to information about employment opportunities affects migration. Exposure to newspaper articles about fracking increased migration to areas mentioned in the news by 2.4% on average, concentrated among young, unmarried, less educated men. Commuting also increased, sentiment of the news matters, and TV news has an impact. Google searches for “fracking” and names of states specifically mentioned spike after news broadcasts about fracking. Counties experiencing weak labor markets are the most responsive, suggesting that these areas see large benefits to information provision.

Good information on self-employment is needed to inform the ongoing discussion of the rise of the gig economy and its implications for workers. Tax data show significant growth in self-employment not captured in the Annual Social and Economic Supplement to the Current Population Survey (CPS-ASEC). The growing gap reflects both self-employment in tax data missing from the CPS-ASEC and self-employment misreported as wage and salary work. We document consistent patterns in the discrepancies between the tax and survey data but are able to explain only a modest share of the growing disagreement between them.

Deciding which field to study is one of the most consequential decisions college students make, but most research on the topic focuses on students attending four-year colleges. To understand how students attending community colleges make field of study decisions, the author links administrative educational records of recent high school graduates with local mass layoff and plant closing announcements. He finds that declines in local employment deter students from entering closely related community college programs and instead induce them to enroll in other vocationally-oriented programs. He further documents that students predominantly shift enrollment between programs that lead to occupations requiring similar skills.

This paper establishes five new facts about instructional costs in higher education using department-level data from a broad range of institutions. Costs vary widely across fields, ranging from electrical engineering (90% higher than English) to math (25% lower). This pattern is largely explained by differences in class size and faculty pay. Some STEM fields experienced steep declines in expenditures over the past 17 years, while others saw increases. Changes in class size and teaching loads alongside a shift toward contingent faculty explain these trends. Finally, the association between online instruction and instructional costs is statistically indistinguishable from zero.

Building on earlier work that shows that the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) has a substantial positive effect on maternal labor supply, we show that labor supply effects are concentrated among mothers with children under age 3, with only moderate effects of the EITC on the labor supply of mothers with teenagers. These increases in labor supply are coupled with large increases in the use and cost of child care among mothers with children under age 3. Results highlight the importance of considering heterogeneous treatment effects of policy and have implications for child care policy and other family policy.