Abstract We investigate intraday return dynamics in currency markets around FOMC announcements. Using comprehensive high-frequency exchange rate data, we reveal that post-FOMC announcement returns are significantly low, cancelling out approximately 65% of positive pre-FOMC announcement drifts. These post-announcement reversals mainly result from uncertainty resolution and are mostly realized between 12 and 24 hours after FOMC announcements. This return behavior is significantly related to the negative jump volatilities driven by FOMC announcements. Our findings suggest that our signed jump volatility measures capture informational shocks and uncertainty resolutions and tend to be high under illiquid market conditions. (JEL G14, G15)

Abstract Speculative language in corporate disclosures can convey valuable information about firms’ fundamentals. We evaluate this idea by developing a measure for speculative statements based on sentences marked with the “weasel tag” on Wikipedia. In the 16-week test period after filing, greater use of speculative statements in 10-Ks predicts higher and nonreverting abnormal returns, more insider and informed buying, and higher news sentiment. These findings imply that managers’ usage of speculative language in 10-Ks reflects voluntary disclosure of their private information about the positive prospects of events when market implications of the events are uncertain and thus have room for (re)interpretation. (JEL D82, G14, G12)

Abstract Discretionary income smoothing has been argued to increase bank opacity and degrade financial system stability by making banks more difficult to monitor. However, no direct empirical association between discretionary smoothing and opacity has been established to date. We argue that smoothing could reflect either the opportunistic exercise of discretion that disconnects loan loss provisions (LLPs) from changes in underlying credit quality, consistent with smoothing increasing opacity, or an informative exercise of discretion to communicate forward‐looking information about loan losses. We examine the association between discretionary smoothing and the informativeness of LLPs for a sample of banks from 1994 to 2019 and find that discretionary smoothing is, on average, associated with more informative LLPs. However, this association is nuanced, with cross‐sectional differences and changes over time. We find evidence that an intervention by the SEC into bank LLP practices in the late 1990s curbed opportunistic smoothing via provisioning for homogeneous loans. Subsequently, smoothing is associated with more informative provisions, including for banks with both more homogeneous and more heterogeneous loan portfolios. Our findings are inconsistent with the notion that smoothing may be associated with greater opacity.

Abstract We provide an economics-based review of the pros and cons of ESG disclosures, emphasizing environmental disclosures from an investor-centric perspective. Our survey intends to guide corporate management and regulators in navigating the ESG disclosure terrain. Rather than summarizing the vast and growing ESG literature, we assess the economic arguments for ESG disclosure regulation and the form of this disclosure. We discuss investors’ demand for ESG information and its supply by publicly traded firms. We analyze the case for and against mandatory ESG disclosure. Finally, we weigh the efficiency of disclosure requirement characteristics, assuming mandatory ESG disclosure is warranted. We intend to be positive rather than prescriptive, providing a line of reasoning readers can employ to reach their own conclusions about what we ought to do.

Abstract This article examines whether agency conflicts introduced by securitization affect servicers’ asset liquidation decisions. We find securitized loans are 25.4–28.5 percent less likely to be liquidated via short sales than portfolio loans. Securitized loan servicers’ bias against short sales does not represent an agency conflict if short sale and real estate owned (REO) liquidations are equally efficient. However, we find REOs have significantly lower average liquidation prices, higher average liquidation expenses, and longer average liquidation times than short sales. Although short sales benefit investors, securitized loan servicers have a financial incentive to pursue REOs.

Bank adoption of external application programming interfaces (APIs) enables bank customers to share their data more efficiently and securely with other third-party financial institutions and FinTechs, thus enabling open banking and bank data portability. Analyzing determinants of API adoption by U.S. banks from 2007 to 2022, we show that banks that adopt APIs tend to be larger and face lower competitive pressures. The announcement of President Biden’s executive order in July 2021 encouraged increased bank data portability and led to an acceleration in bank API adoption. Banks that adopt APIs experience an increase in Return on Assets ( ROA ) and Tobin’s Q and a decrease in loan loss provisions, particularly after President Biden’s executive order. We find that APIs’ ability to facilitate data access and sharing improves bank information flows and supports banks’ loan and deposit services which form the foundation of notable improvements in bank performance. Overall, our results on the determinants and implications of API adoption have important policy implications for the discussion on open banking regulation and bank data portability.

This paper shows theoretically and empirically that the decision to disclose a short-term earnings forecast can reveal managers’ private information about long-term performance. Consistent with the predictions of our model, we find that the decision to disclose a short-term earnings forecast predicts long-term performance for up to three years. The relation strengthens when current period performance is poor, when managers have longer horizons, and when competitive threats are lower. Endogenizing the proprietary costs of disclosure, our analysis suggests that––despite the short horizon––the decision to provide an earnings forecast contains significant information about long-term performance and thus can entail proprietary costs.

Abstract This paper proposes that strong institutions provide comparative advantage in clean industries, and thereby improve a country’s environmental quality. I study financial, judicial, and labour market institutions. Five complementary tests evaluate and assess implications of this hypothesis. First, industries that depend on institutions are clean. Second, strong institutions increase relative exports in clean industries. Third, an industry’s complexity helps explain the link between institutions and clean goods. Fourth, cross-country differences in the composition of output between clean and dirty industries explain an important share of the global distribution of emissions. Fifth, a quantitative general equilibrium model indicates that strengthening a country’s institutions decreases its pollution through relocating dirty industries abroad, though increases pollution in other countries. The comparative advantage that strong institutions provide in clean industries gives one under-explored reason why developing countries have relatively high pollution levels.

We demonstrate that a persistent pattern exists in the evolution of the MTB ratio from 1999 to 2023, wherein firms with high (low) MTB ratios tend to maintain those levels over time. The persistence of the MTB ratio is independent of industry effects and cannot be well explained by accounting performance. Intangible investment plays a crucial role in determining the MTB ratio, and its persistence is primarily maintained through continued internal intangible investment rather than external mergers and acquisitions. Moreover, although U.S. firms have increased their investment in intangible assets over the past 25 years, the gap between high- and low-MTB firms in intangible investment has widened. Our results suggest that the basis of stock value has shifted from tangible to intangible investments over time.

Abstract We use unique disclosures in the insurance industry to examine whether client-engaged specialists (i.e., external actuaries) affect opportunism within the claim loss reserve. Using a fixed-effects approach, we find that external actuaries significantly affect the opportunism in the claim loss reserve, approaching half the effect of the auditor. With respect to actuary characteristics, we find a positive (negative) association between actuary permissiveness (actuary size) and opportunism in the claim loss reserve. In additional analyses, we find that the relation between actuary permissiveness and claim loss reserve opportunism is stronger when insurers have incentives to opportunistically manage the claim loss reserve. This relation continues to persist in the presence of high-quality auditors. Overall, we provide evidence suggesting that client-engaged external actuaries can be used to support opportunistic claim loss reserve estimates.