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Land-Price Dynamics and Macroeconomic Fluctuations
We argue that positive co-movements between land prices and business investment are a driving force behind the broad impact of land-price dynamics on the macroeconomy. We develop an economic mechanism that captures the co-movements by incorporating two key features into a DSGE model: We introduce land as a collateral asset in firms' credit constraints, and we identify a shock that drives most of the observed fluctuations in land prices. Our estimates imply that these two features combine to generate an empirically important mechanism that amplifies and propagates macroeconomic fluctuations through the joint dynamics of land prices and business investment.
The productivity effect of digital financial reporting
Reputation acquisition and abnormal performance in IPO underwriting
We examine how an underwriter's reputation accumulates upon each attempt to take a firm public, conditional on the bank demonstrating abnormal performance bringing—or failing to bring—the offering to market. We develop a novel measure of abnormal underwriting performance by weighing the ex-ante difficulty of completing the offering against the actual outcome. We show this measure positively associates with future changes in the underwriter's market share and issuing volume. The effect manifests as access to more offerings and is prominent when difficult offerings are completed, for abnormal performance demonstrated in midmarket (20–100 million) and large IPOs, and for both the primary lead and co‑lead underwriters. Abnormal performance is associated with a higher underwriting spread and aggressive IPO pricing.
Do Underwriters Price Up IPOs to Prevent Withdrawal?
We examine whether underwriters price up weakly demanded initial public offerings (IPOs) to prevent withdrawal. Our empirical strategy exploits a discontinuity in the distribution of IPO prices around the low boundary of the filing range. Offerings with a high ex ante withdrawal probability that are priced at this boundary are likely priced up to meet issuers’ reservation prices. We compare the aftermarket returns of these IPOs to the returns of other weakly demanded offerings where issuers’ reservation prices were likely not binding, and we identify a negative 8.4-percentage-point differential attributable to the aggressive pricing inherent in setting the price at the low boundary when withdrawal risk is high.
Why Does the Cyclical Behavior of Real Wages Change Over Time?
The cyclical behavior of real wages has evolved from mildly countercyclical during the interwar period to modestly procyclical in the postwar era. This paper presents a general-equilibrium business-cycle model that helps explain the evolution. In the model, changes in the real wage cyclicality arise from interactions between nominal wage and price rigidities and an evolving input-output structure.
Gone with the wind: An externality of earnings pressure
We investigate an externality of earnings pressure from capital markets. We define earnings pressure as managers’ incentives to meet or beat earnings expectations. Using detailed establishment-level sulfur dioxide emission data from China covering 2003 to 2012, we find that firms with earnings pressure have higher intensity sulfur dioxide emissions. This effect is more pronounced when the strength of monitoring and regulatory enforcement is weak, when litigation risk is low, and when the public firm is not mandated to issue a corporate social responsibility report. Our study sheds light on how financial goals may conflict with environmental goals, and has important implications for academics, regulators and society.