Knowledge that Transforms

We examine methods used to survey firms on their management and organizational practices. We contrast the strengths and weaknesses of “open ended questions” (like the World Management Survey) with “closed questions” (like the MOPS). For this type of data, open ended questions give higher quality responses, but are more costly than closed question-based surveys.

We present a novel theory of the employment relationship. A manager can invest in attention technology to recognize good worker performance. The technology may break and is costly to replace. We show that as time passes without recognition, the worker's belief about the manager's technology worsens and his effort declines. The manager responds by investing, but this investment is insufficient to stop the decline in effort and eventually becomes decreasing. The relationship therefore continues deteriorating, and a return to high performance becomes increasingly unlikely. These deteriorating dynamics do not arise when recognition is of bad performance or independent of effort.

Recent evidence indicates that boys and girls are differently affected by the quantity and quality of family inputs received in childhood. We assess whether this is also true for schooling inputs. Using matched Florida birth and school administrative records, we estimate the causal effect of school quality on the gender gap in educational outcomes by contrasting opposite-sex siblings who attend the same sets of schools--thereby purging family heterogeneity--and leveraging within-family variation in school quality arising from family moves. Investigating middle school test scores, absences and suspensions, we find that boys benefit more than girls from cumulative exposure to higher quality schools.

In a recent contribution to the AER, Koopman, Wang, and Wei (2014) proposed a decomposition of a country's gross exports into value-added components and double-counted terms. It is motivated by complex manipulation of basic accounting identities. In this comment we provide an alternative framework based on “hypothetical extraction.” This parsimonious approach provides a clear definition of domestic value added in exports and has a natural extension into decompositions of bilateral export flows.

A microeconomics principles course employing random assignment across three sections with different teaching models is used to explore learning outcomes as measured by a cumulative final exam for students who participate in traditional face-to-face classroom instruction, blended face-to-face and online instruction with reduced instructor contact time, and a purely online instructional format. Evidence indicates learning outcomes were reduced for students in the purely online section relative to those in the face-to-face format by 5 to 10 points on a cumulative final exam. No statistically significant differences in outcomes are observed for students in the blended relative to the face-to-face section.

Consumers' enrollment decisions in Medicare Part D can be explained by Abaluck and Gruber’s (2011) model of utility maximization with psychological biases or by a neoclassical version of their model that precludes such biases. We evaluate these competing hypotheses by applying nonparametric tests of utility maximization and model validation tests to administrative data. We find that 79 percent of enrollment decisions from 2006 to 2010 satisfied basic axioms of consumer theory under the assumption of full information. The validation tests provide evidence against widespread psychological biases. In particular, we find that precluding psychological biases improves the structural model's out-of-sample predictions for consumer behavior.

Many have argued that a deviation from good economic policy has been a cause of the poor U.S. economic performance of the past decade and that policy reforms are needed to restore strong growth. Yet others argue that the recent stagnation is secular or that the possibility of a rapid recovery is long gone without more fiscal stimulus. Here I show that unusual economic conditions leave plenty of room for a reform-induced rebound. Taking demographics and the growth of capital services into account, labor force participation and productivity growth are unusually low. Hence, policy reforms could generate a post-recession-like acceleration as well as sustained growth and stability.

We compare single round versus runoff elections under plurality rule, allowing for partly endogenous party formation. Under runoff elections, the number of political candidates is larger, but the influence of extremist voters on equilibrium policy, and hence policy volatility, is smaller because the bargaining power of the political extremes is reduced compared to single round elections. The predictions on the number of candidates and on policy volatility are confirmed by evidence from a regression discontinuity design in Italy, where cities above 15,000 inhabitants elect the mayor with a runoff system, while those below hold single round elections.

In June 2015, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees announced a landmark event in the history of his organization. UNHCR estimated that there were more refugees and displaced persons than it had counted since its establishment in 1950--almost 60 million who fled conflict and persecution. While certainly large in its own right, the number actually underestimates displacement in today's world. Many millions more are displaced each year and cumulatively from a much broader range of life-threatening humanitarian crises than captured by UNHCR's figures. An average of 26.4 million were displaced annually by acute natural hazards since 2008 and an unknown but sizeable number from gang and cartel violence, electoral and communal violence, nuclear and industrial accidents, and a range of other human made disasters. This paper argues for new legal, institutional and operational frameworks to more effectively address the situation of the totality of displaced persons.

Regional shocks are an important feature of the US economy. Households' ability to self-insure against these shocks depends on how they affect local interest rates. In the United States, most borrowing occurs through the mortgage market and is influenced by the presence of government-sponsored enterprises (GSE). We establish that despite large regional variation in predictable default risk, GSE mortgage rates for otherwise identical loans do not vary spatially. In contrast, the private market does set interest rates which vary with local risk. We use a spatial model of collateralized borrowing to show that the national interest rate policy substantially affects welfare by redistributing resources across regions.