Knowledge that Transforms

We integrate a widely accepted version of the separation of ownership and control—Michael Jensen's (1986) free cash flow theory—into a dynamic equilibrium model, and study the effect of imperfect corporate control on asset prices and investment. Aggregate free cash flow of the corporate sector is an important state variable in explaining asset prices, investment, and the cyclical behavior of interest rates and the yield curve. The financial friction causes cash-flow shocks to affect investment, and causes otherwise i.i.d. shocks to be transmitted from period to period. The shocks propagate through large firms and during booms.

We provide a formal analysis of the notion that conglomerates are more ‘entrenched’ as they have ‘deeper pockets’. Using the financial contracting model of Bolton and Scharfstein (1990), we can isolate two effects that confirm this conjecture: the pooling of cash flows, which allows to smooth out repayments, and the ability to obtain better credit terms. For less profitable business segments, the internal capital market operated in a conglomerate may, however, work in the opposite direction, increasing the sensitivity of operations to own cash flows and increasing the likelihood of exit.

We show that extrinsic or nonfundamental uncertainty influences markets in a controlled environment. This work provides the first direct evidence of sunspot equilibria. These equilibria require a common understanding of the semantics of the sunspot variable, and they appear to be sensitive to the flow of information. Sunspots always occur in a closed-book call market, but they happen only occasionally in a double auction, where inframarginal bids and offers are observable.

Farley W. Grubb's recent papers on the early U.S. monetary system would be important contributions to the common currency area literature were not most of their historical assertions questionable and their key assumption—that the medium of exchange can be inferred from the unit of account—dubious. We contend that after 1781 most Americans eschewed government paper money in favor of fullbodied coins and convertible bank liabilities and that, contrary to Grubb's claim, bankers did not foist the constitutional clause banning state emissions onto an unsuspecting public.

Version of Record

We report results of an Internet experiment designed to test the theory of informational cascades in financial markets (Christopher Avery and Peter Zemsky, 1998). More than 6,400 subjects, including a subsample of 267 consultants from an international consulting firm, participated in the experiment. We find that the presence of a flexible market price prevents herding. The presence of contrarian behavior distorts prices, however, and even after 20 decisions, convergence to the fundamental value is rare. We also report some interesting differences with respect to subjects' fields of study. Reassuringly, the behavior of the consultants turns out to be not significantly different from that of the remaining subjects.

While there is an extensive literature on the theory of infinitely repeated games, empirical evidence on how “the shadow of the future” affects behavior is scarce and inconclusive. I simulate infinitely repeated prisoner's dilemma games in the lab with a random continuation rule. The experimental design represents an improvement over the existing literature by including sessions with finite repeated games as controls and a large number of players per session (which allows for learning without contagion effects). I find that the shadow of the future matters not only by significantly reducing opportunistic behavior, but also because its impact closely follows theoretical predictions.

Can you think of an instance in which your teaching enhanced your research? We have had several such experiences and wondered if it was a common phenomenon among economists. We asked several eminent economists if they could cite a specific study that emanated directly from their teaching. The original goal was to report some examples of how teaching could play a positive role in research. We expanded our goal, however, when we were swamped with examples. We found that (i) teaching plays a far more important role in enhancing research than the existing literature suggests, (ii) this influence is recognized by a large fraction of active researchers, and (iii) this positive effect of teaching on research occurs through a wide variety of channels.

Distributional and Efficiency Impacts of Gasoline Taxes: An Econometrically Based Multi-market Study by Antonio M. Bento, Lawrence H. Goulder, Emeric Henry, Mark R. Jacobsen and Roger H. von Haefen. Published in volume 95, issue 2, pages 282-287 of American Economic Review, May 2005

An Investigation of the Effects of Alcohol Consumption and Alcohol Policies on Youth Risky Sexual Behaviors by Sara Markowitz, Robert Kaestner and Michael Grossman. Published in volume 95, issue 2, pages 263-266 of American Economic Review, May 2005