Knowledge that Transforms

This paper proposes a new measure of the disincentive cost of unemployment insurance (UI): the ratio of the behavioral cost (BC) to the mechanical cost (MC) of a UI reform. This measure represents the labor supply distortion relative to the additional (mechanical) transfer from the UI reform. We show the BC/MC ratio naturally arises from a model of optimal UI and can be readily computed and compared across different types of reforms and labor market contexts. We summarize the evidence regarding the BC/MC ratio for existing studies and relate it to typical measures of employment effects of UI.

We discuss an underutilized dataset to examine the causes of migration. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees publishes annual binational asylum applications and the resulting decisions. Asylum is granted to protect individuals from persecution. They are a small part of overall migration patterns: one-tenth of overall migration flows into OECD countries. The European Union receives the largest share of asylum applicants and has a low acceptance rate, but the rate increases when source countries have positive deviations from historic trends. Countries outside the EU and OECD receive almost all of the applications from neighbors with a contiguous land border.

Jurisdictions across the United States have adopted “ban the box” (BTB) policies preventing employers from conducting criminal background checks until late in the job application process. Their primary goal is to increase employment for those with criminal records. If individuals with criminal records view these policies as improving their labor market opportunities, they might move to BTB-adopting places in search of employment. In this paper, we consider BTB's effects on the demographic composition of labor markets and the likelihood that residents report recently moving from other labor markets. We find no evidence that BTB affects migration.

We document four similarities between American human healthcare and American pet care: (i) rapid growth in spending as a share of GDP over the last two decades; (ii) strong income-spending gradient; (iii) rapid growth in the employment of healthcare providers; and (iv) similar propensity for high spending at the end of life. We speculate about possible implications of these similar patterns in two sectors that share many common features but differ markedly in institutional features, such as the prevalence of insurance and of public sector involvement.

A structural economic model is one where the structure of decision making is incorporated in the model specification. Structural models aim to identify three distinct, but related, objects: (i) structural “deep” parameters; (ii) underlying mechanisms; (iii) policy counterfactuals. The ability to provide counterfactual predictions sets structural models apart from reduced-form models. The focus is on studies that allow a better understanding of the mechanisms underlying observed behavior and that provide reliable insights about policy counterfactuals. Emphasis is given to models that minimize assumptions on the structural function and on unobserved heterogeneity and approaches that align structural and “reduced form” moments.

We introduce a framework of matching with flexible allotments that can be used to model firms with cross-division hiring restrictions. Our framework also allows us to nest some prior models of matching with distributional constraints. Building upon our recent work on observable substitutability, we show that multi-division choice functions with flexible allotments enable stable and strategy-proof matching; these results illustrate the value of clearly mapping when stable and strategy-proof matching is possible.

Since the early 1990s, recoveries from recessions in the US have been plagued by weak employment growth. One possible explanation for these "jobless" recoveries is rooted in technological change: middle-skill jobs, often involving routine tasks, are lost during recessions, and the displaced workers take time to transition into other jobs (Jaimovich and Siu, 2014). But technological replacement of middle-skill workers is not unique to the US – it also takes place in other developed countries (Goos, Manning, and Salomons, 2014). So if jobless recoveries in the US are due to technology, we might expect to also see them elsewhere in the developed world. We test this possibility using data on recoveries from 71 recessions in 28 industries and 17 countries from 1970-2011. We find that though GDP recovered more slowly after recent recessions, employment did not. Industries that used more routine tasks, and those more exposed to robotization, did not recently experience slower employment recoveries. Finally, middle-skill employment did not recover more slowly after recent recessions, and this pattern was no different in routine-intensive industries. Taken together, this evidence suggests that technology is not causing jobless recoveries in developed countries outside the US.

Is coachability a usable concept for startups? Using a dataset on high-growth startups in a prominent university incubator, we show that firm characteristics do predict which firms are likely to follow advice but that these “coachable” firms are not more likely to achieve positive outcomes. The reason is that advice may be rejected either because the firm is stubborn and uncoachable, or because the firm possesses capabilities related to the advice which is hard for outsiders to observe.

Although school choice programs are common, we know little about the underlying decision-making processes. In this study, we randomly assigned 900 junior high schools in Ghana, a country with universal secondary school choice, to 1 of 3 treatment arms: (1) information to students, (2) information to students and guardians, and (3) control group. We observe changes in beliefs, behaviors, and the decision maker's identity through a survey of guardians. Our intervention increased the likelihood that guardians were involved with and informed about the school selection process. Moreover, specifically targeting guardians led to significantly larger changes for most outcomes.

Most approaches to entrepreneurship assume that entrepreneurial control over their inventions is critical for success and, in turn, for incentives. Such control is usually supported by regulations that protect intellectual property including patents, copyrights, and trade secrets. Each give the entrepreneurs control over who can appropriate value from their activities. However, we note that another, distinct path exists for appropriation by entrepreneurs' execution. Execution forgoes the formal protection from control instead of a more rapid approach to market in the pursuit of capabilities that will allow entrepreneurs to compete with others in the future rather than block their activities per se. We characterize the conditions under which one path is preferred to another and present evidence from university startups delineating the tradeoffs at the heart of our theoretical approach.