Knowledge that Transforms

ABSTRACT We document large, longer term, joint regime shifts in asset valuations and the real federal funds rate‐ spread. To interpret these findings, we estimate a novel macrofinance model of monetary transmission and find that the documented regimes coincide with shifts in the parameters of a policy rule, with long‐term consequences for the real interest rate. Estimates imply that two‐thirds of the decline in the real interest rate since the early 1980s is attributable to regime changes in monetary policy. The model explains how infrequent changes in the stance of monetary policy can generate persistent changes in asset valuations and the equity premium.

Maintaining economic output during the COVID-19 pandemic results in benefits for firm shareholders but comes at a potential cost to public health. Using store-level data, we examine how a CEO's political leaning impacts this trade-off. We document that firms with a Republican-leaning CEO experience a relative increase in store visits compared to firms with a Democratic-leaning CEO. The increase in store visits is associated with higher sales and positive abnormal stock returns. However, we also document higher COVID-19 transmission rates and more employee safety complaints in communities where establishments with higher store traffic are managed by a Republican-leaning CEO.

ABSTRACTUsing historical data on postwar financial crises around the world, we show that the combination of rapid credit and asset price growth over the prior three years, whether in the nonfinancial business or the household sector, is associated with a 40% probability of entering a financial crisis within the next three years. This compares with a roughly 7% probability in normal times, when neither credit nor asset price growth is elevated. Our evidence challenges the view that financial crises are unpredictable “bolts from the sky” and supports the Kindleberger‐Minsky view that crises are the byproduct of predictable, boom‐bust credit cycles. This predictability favors policies that lean against incipient credit‐market booms.

ABSTRACT We develop a flexible and bias‐adjusted approach to jointly examine skill, scalability, and value‐added across individual funds. We find that skill and scalability (i) vary substantially across funds, and (ii) are strongly related, as great investment ideas are difficult to scale up. The combination of skill and scalability produces a value‐added that (i) is positive for the majority of funds, and (ii) approaches its optimal level after an adjustment period (possibly due to investor learning). These results are consistent with theoretical models in which funds are skilled and able to extract economic rents from capital markets.

ABSTRACT We provide plausibly identified evidence for the role of investor disagreement in asset pricing. Our natural experiment exploits the staggered implementation of the Electronic Data Gathering, Analysis, and Retrieval (EDGAR) system, which induces a reduction in investor disagreement. Consistent with models of investor disagreement, EDGAR inclusion helps resolve disagreement around information events, leading to stock price corrections. The reduction in disagreement following EDGAR inclusion also reduces stock price crash risk, especially among stocks with binding short‐sale constraints and high investor optimism.

ABSTRACT We analyze how individuals reinvest realized capital gains and losses exploiting plausibly exogenous sales due to mutual fund liquidations. Individuals reinvest 83% if a forced sale results in a gain relative to the initial investment; but reinvest only 40% in the event of a loss. This difference is statistically significant for more than six months and arises because many individuals forced to realize a loss choose not to reinvest anything and some even exit the stock market altogether. Individuals treat realized losses differently from paper losses and are discouraged from investing more and participating in the stock market.

ABSTRACT We examine how the payment processing role of banks affects their lending activity. In our model, banks operate in separate zones, and issue claims to entrepreneurs who purchase some inputs outside their own zone. Settling bank claims across zones incurs a cost. In equilibrium, a liquidity externality arises when zones are sufficiently different in their outsourcing propensities—a bank may restrict its own lending because it needs to hold liquidity against claims issued by another bank. Our work highlights that the disparate motives for interbank borrowing (investing in productive projects and managing liquidity) can have different effects on efficiency.

ABSTRACT This paper uses surveys to document CFO perspectives on corporate planning, investment, capital structure, payout, and shareholder versus stakeholder focus. Comparing policy decisions today to those 20 years ago, I find that companies employ decision rules that are conservative, sticky, and geared to time the market; rely on internal forecasts that are miscalibrated and considered reliable only two years ahead; and emphasize corporate objectives that focus increasingly on stakeholders and revenues. These practice of corporate finance themes can discipline academic models toward better explaining outcomes. Models of satisficing decision‐making or costly managerial biases align with many of the themes.