Knowledge that Transforms

It is shown that the class of elliptical distributions extend the Tobin [14] separation theorem, Bawa's [2] rules of ordering uncertain prospects, Ross's [12] mutual fund separation theorems, and the results of the CAPM to non‐normal distributions, which are not necessarily stable. Further, the mean‐covariance matrix framework is generalized to a mean‐characteristic matrix framework in which the characteristic matrix is the basis for a spread or risk measure, and a generalized equilibrium pricing equation is arrived at. The implications to empirical testing of the CAPM and modeling the empirical distribution of speculative prices are discussed.

This study develops a model based on current corporate finance theories which explains stock returns associated with the announcement of issuer exchange offers. The major independent variables are changes in leverage multiplied by senior security claims outstanding and changes in debt tax shields. Parameter estimates are statistically significant and consistent in sign and relative magnitude with model predictions. Overall, 55 percent of the variance in stock announcement period returns is explained. The evidence is consistent with tax‐based theories of optimal capital structure, a positive debt level information effect, and leverage‐induced wealth transfers across security classes.

This paper investigates the relation between common stock returns and inflation in twenty‐six countries for the postwar period. Our results do not support the Fisher Hypothesis, which states that real rates of return on common stocks and expected inflation rates are independent and that nominal stock returns vary in one‐to‐one correspondence with expected inflation. There is a consistent lack of positive relation between stock returns and inflation in most of the countries.

This paper demonstrates that deviations from purchasing power parity reveal a remarkable and possibly startling consistency with martingale behavior during both fixed and flexible rate periods, for a wide variety of countries, and in both monthly and annual data. Since this pattern appears to be much more general than one would expect on the basis of models founded on international commodity arbitrage, the paper proposes an alternative explanation which instead relies on financial arbitrage in bonds as the underlying mechanism.

Introduction: Multinational Enterprise and Multinational Financial Management. PART ONE: ENVIRONMENT OF INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT. The Determination of Exchange Rates. The International Monetary System. The Balance of Payments and International Economic Linkages. The Foreign Exchange Market. Currency Futures and Options Markets. Parity Conditions in International Finance and Currency Forecasting. PART TWO: FOREIGN EXCHANGE RISK MANAGEMENT. Measuring Accounting Exposure. Managing Accounting Exposure. Measuring Economic Exposure. Managing Economic Exposure. PART THREE: MULTINATIONAL WORKING CAPITAL MANAGEMENT. Financing Foreign Trade. Current Asset Management. Managing the Multinational Financial System. PART FOUR: FINANCING FOREIGN OPERATIONS. International Financing and International Financial Markets. Special Financing Vehicles. International Banking Trends and Strategies. The Cost of Capital for Foreign Investments. PART FIVE: FOREIGN INVESTMENT ANALYSIS. International Portfolio Investment. Corporate Strategy and Foreign Direct Investment. Capital Budgeting for the Multinational Corporation. The Measurement and Management of Political Risk. Glossary of Key Words and Terms in International Finance.

The behavior of competing dealers in securities markets is analyzed. Securities are characterized by stochastic returns and stochastic transactions. Reservation bid and ask prices of dealers are derived under alternative assumptions about the degree to which transactions are correlated across stocks at a given time and over time in a given stock. The conditions for interdealer trading are specified, and the equilibrium distribution of dealer inventories and the equilibrium market spread are derived. Implications for the structure of securities markets are examined.

Contrary to economic theory and common sense, stock returns are negatively related to both expected and unexpected inflation. We argue that this puzzling empirical phenomenon does not indicate causality. Instead, stock returns are negatively related to contemporaneous changes in expected inflation because they signal a chain of events which results in a higher rate of monetary expansion. Exogenous shocks in real output, signalled by the stock market, induce changes in tax revenue, in the deficit, in Treasury borrowing and in Federal Reserve “monetization” of the increased debt. Rational bond and stock market investors realize this will happen. They adjust prices (and interest rates) accordingly and without delay. Although expected inflation seems to have a negative effect on subsequent stock returns, this could be an empirical illusion, since a spurious causality is induced by a combination of: (a) a reversed adaptive inflation expectations model and (b) a reversed money growth/stock returns model. If the real interest rate is not a constant, using nominal interest proxies for expected inflation is dangerous, since small changes in real rates can cause large and opposite percentage changes in stock prices.

An individual who chooses to serve as a market‐maker is assumed to optimize his position by setting a bid‐ask spread which maximizes the difference between expected revenues received from liquidity‐motivated traders and expected losses to information‐motivated traders. By characterizing the cost of supplying quotes, as writing a put and a call option to an information‐motivated trader, it is shown that the bid‐ask spread is a positive function of the price level and return variance, a negative function of measures of market activity, depth, and continuity, and negatively correlated with the degree of competition. Thus, the theory of information effects on the bid‐ask spread proposed in this paper is consistent with the empirical literature.

J. G. Kallberg, A Generalized Cash Flow Approach to Short-Term Financial Decisions: Discussion, The Journal of Finance, Vol. 38, No. 2, Papers and Proceedings Forty-First Annual Meeting American Finance Association New York, N.Y. December 28-30, 1982 (May, 1983), pp. 385-387