Knowledge that Transforms

This paper studies the role of trust in incumbent lenders (banks) as an entry barrier to emerging FinTech lenders in credit markets. The empirical setting exploits the outbreak of the Wells Fargo scandal as a negative shock to borrowers’ trust in banks. Using a difference-in-differences framework, I find that increased exposure to the Wells Fargo scandal leads to an increase in the probability of borrowers using FinTech as mortgage originators. Utilizing political affiliation to proxy for the magnitude of trust erosion in banks in a triple-differences specification, I find that, conditional on the same exposure to the scandal, a county experiencing a greater erosion of trust has a larger increase in FinTech share relative to a county experiencing less of an erosion of trust. Estimating treatment effect heterogeneity using generic machine learning inference suggests that borrowers with the greatest decrease in trust in banks and the greatest increase in FinTech adoption have similar characteristics.

We examine the effect of undiagnosed memory disorders on credit outcomes using individually-matched nationally representative credit reporting and Medicare data. We find effects of early stage disease, years before diagnosis, on a wide range of financial outcomes, including credit card account payment delinquency and amount of delinquent balance, credit utilization among credit card account holders, mortgage delinquency and delinquent balance amount, and credit scores. Effects are pervasive, affecting seniors in single and coupled households, racial/ethnic minorities and non-minorities, and older adults living in areas with higher and lower education levels. Early stage effects are greater among singles and Black individuals.

This paper uses hand-collected historical data to provide empirical evidence on the strategic trading behavior of insiders and its consequences for outsiders. Specifically, we collect all equity trades of all insiders and outsiders in an era without legal restrictions on insider trading and a market where trading is non-anonymous. We find that access to private information creates a significant gap between the post-trade returns of insiders and outsiders. Consistent with theory, insiders capitalize on their information advantage by hiding their identity and timing their trades. Both experienced and inexperienced outsiders face expected losses due to this strategic insider trading.

The change in the cost of capital that results from a divestiture strategy can be closely approximated by a simple function of three parameters: (1) the fraction of socially conscious capital, (2) the fraction of targeted firms in the economy and (3) the return correlation between the targeted firms and the rest of the stock market. When calibrated to current data, we demonstrate that the impact on the cost of capital is too small to meaningfully affect real investment decisions. We then derive the conditions that would be required for the strategy to have a meaningful impact. We empirically corroborate our theoretical results by studying firm changes in ESG status and are unable to detect an impact of ESG divestiture strategies on the cost of capital of treated firms. Our results suggest that to have impact, instead of divesting, socially conscious investors should invest and exercise their rights of control to change corporate policy.

This paper assesses the contributions of Michael C. Jensen to financial economics and to American business. His work on agency theory is the cornerstone of modern corporate finance. He influenced how American business operates by helping make the internal and external governance of firms more efficient. He changed how knowledge in financial economics is diffused both through the founding of the Journal of Financial Economics and of the Social Science Research Network. I question the claim made by some that he recanted his ideas in the 2000s.

We study whether exit policies by financial institutions have financial and real consequences on the firms they target, using bank coal exit policies as a laboratory. In contrast to theories assuming high capital substitutability, we find large effects of these policies. Bank exit policies negatively affect both the financing and operation of coal assets. Substitution to other sources and providers of capital appears to be limited. Coal power plants owned by firms exposed to exit policies are more likely to retire, translating into lower CO2 emissions. Exit policies have reduced CO2e emissions from energy production by an estimated 0.62 gigaton.

We estimate financial institutions’ portfolio tilts related to U.S. stocks’ environmental, social, and governance (ESG) characteristics. From 2012 to 2023, ESG-related tilts consistently total about 6% of the investment industry’s assets and rise from 17% to 27% of institutions’ total portfolio tilts. Significant ESG tilts arise from the choice of stocks held and, especially, the weights on stocks held. The largest institutions tilt increasingly toward green stocks, while other institutions and households tilt increasingly brown. Divestment from brown stocks is typically partial rather than full, even for individual mutual funds. UNPRI signatories and European institutions tilt greener; banks tilt browner.

We study how information technology (IT) affects lender competition, entrepreneurs’ investment, and welfare in a spatial model. The effects of an IT improvement depend on whether it weakens the influence of lender–borrower distance on monitoring costs. If it does, it has a hump-shaped effect on entrepreneurs’ investment and social welfare. If not, competition intensity does not vary, improving lender profits, entrepreneurs’ investment, and social welfare. When entrepreneurs’ moral hazard problem is severe, IT-induced competition is more likely to reduce investment and welfare. We also find that lenders’ price discrimination is not welfare-optimal. Our results are consistent with received empirical work on lending to SMEs.

Classical asset pricing models predict that optimizing investors exhibit extremely high demand elasticities, while empirical estimates are significantly lower—by three orders of magnitude. To reconcile this disparity, we introduce a novel decomposition of investor demand elasticity into two key components: “price pass-through”, which captures how price movements forecast returns, and “unspanned returns”, reflecting a stock’s lack of perfect substitutes. In a factor model framework, we show that unspanned returns become significant when models include “weak factors”. Classical models overestimate demand elasticity by assuming both very low unspanned returns and high price pass-throughs, assumptions that are inconsistent with empirical evidence.

We explore whether Quantitative Easing (QE) negatively affected the functioning of the treasury market. Focusing on the arbitrage between European sovereign bonds and their futures contracts, we show that the scarcity of treasuries created by QE led to a disconnect between the prices of identical assets. We identify three channels: reduced bond market liquidity, increased funding costs in the repo market, and a higher cost of carry. A change in a policy instrument allows us to identify scarcity as the main driver and rule out alternatives, such as balance sheet costs. Our results extend to other arbitrage relations involving treasuries.