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Managerial succession and firm performance

Journal of Financial Economics 2004 74(2), 237-275
We examine CEO turnover and firm financial performance. Accounting measures of performance relative to other firms deteriorate prior to CEO turnover and improve thereafter. The degree of improvement is positively related to the level of institutional shareholdings, the presence of an outsider-dominated board, and the appointment of an outsider (rather than an insider) CEO. Turnover announcements are associated with significantly positive average abnormal stock returns, which are in turn significantly positively related to subsequent changes in accounting measures of performance. This suggests that investors view turnover announcements as good news presaging performance improvements.

Why constrain your mutual fund manager?

Journal of Financial Economics 2004 73(2), 289-321
We examine the form, adoption rates, and economic rationale for various mutual fund investment restrictions. A sample of U.S. domestic equity funds from 1994 to 2000 reveals systematic patterns in investment constraints, consistent with an optimal contracting equilibrium in the fund industry. Restrictions are more common when (i) boards contain a higher proportion of inside directors, (ii) the portfolio manager is more experienced, (iii) the fund is managed by a team rather than an individual, and (iv) the fund does not belong to a large organizational complex. Low- and high-constraint funds produce similar risk-adjusted returns, also consistent with an optimal contracting equilibrium.

Cross-country determinants of mergers and acquisitions

Journal of Financial Economics 2004 74(2), 277-304
We study the determinants of mergers and acquisitions around the world by focusing on differences in laws and regulation across countries. We find that the volume of M&A activity is significantly larger in countries with better accounting standards and stronger shareholder protection. The probability of an all-cash bid decreases with the level of shareholder protection in the acquirer country. In cross-border deals, targets are typically from countries with poorer investor protection than their acquirers’ countries, suggesting that cross-border transactions play a governance role by improving the degree of investor protection within target firms.

Predicting returns with financial ratios

Journal of Financial Economics 2004 74(2), 209-235
This article studies whether financial ratios like dividend yield can predict aggregate stock returns. Predictive regressions are subject to small-sample biases, but the correction used by prior studies can substantially understate forecasting power. I show that dividend yield predicts market returns during the period 1946–2000, as well as in various subsamples. Book-to-market and the earnings-price ratio predict returns during the shorter sample 1963–2000. The evidence remains strong despite the unusual price run-up in recent years.

U.S. cross-listings and the private benefits of control: evidence from dual-class firms

Journal of Financial Economics 2004 72(3), 519-553
Non-U.S. firms that cross-list on U.S. exchanges have voting premiums that are 43% lower than non-U.S. firms that do not cross-list. The difference in voting premiums is statistically significant after controlling for firm and country characteristics and the difference is larger for firms from countries that provide poor protection to minority investors. When a U.S. listing is announced, both the high- and low-voting share classes benefit, although the low-voting class benefits relatively more. The evidence supports the bonding hypothesis: cross-listing in the U.S. improves the protection afforded to minority investors and decreases the private benefits of control.