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The institutional memory hypothesis and the procyclicality of bank lending behavior

Journal of Financial Intermediation 2004 13(4), 458-495 open access
We test a new hypothesis that may help explain the procyclicality of bank lending. The institutional memory hypothesis is driven by deterioration in the ability of loan officers over the bank's lending cycle that results in an easing of credit standards. We test this hypothesis using data from individual US banks over 1980–2000: over 200,000 bank-level observations on commercial loan growth, over 2,000,000 loan-level observations on interest rate premiums, and over 2000 bank-level observations on credit standards and loan spreads from bank management survey responses. The empirical analysis supports the hypothesis, although there are differences by bank size class.

Explaining the dramatic changes in performance of US banks: technological change, deregulation, and dynamic changes in competition

Journal of Financial Intermediation 2003 12(1), 57-95
We investigate the effects of technological change, deregulation, and dynamic changes in competition on the performance of US banks. Our most striking result is that during 1991–1997, cost productivity worsened while profit productivity improved substantially, particularly for banks engaging in mergers. The data are consistent with the hypothesis that banks tried to maximize profits by raising revenues as well as reducing costs. Banks appeared to provide additional or higher quality services that raised costs but also raised revenues by more than the cost increases. The results suggest that methods that exclude revenues when assessing performance may be misleading.

Financial intermediation services and competition analyses: Review and paths forward for improvement

Journal of Financial Intermediation 2024 57, 101072 open access
Financial intermediation has distinct value from transforming financial claims to create liquidity and mitigate risks. However, research and policy competition analyses often neglect this value or minimally account for it. We review findings to better incorporate this value. We suggest shifting the mix of individual services analyzed to better represent the distinct value, focusing more on topics closely aligned with the distinct value concept beyond individual services, and accounting for the multimarket nature of financial intermediation. We recommend attention on future competition with digital FinTech, BigTech, and DeFi firms and policies to best preserve the distinct value of financial intermediation.

Reexamining the empirical relation between loan risk and collateral: The roles of collateral liquidity and types

Journal of Financial Intermediation 2016 26, 28-46 open access
This paper offers a possible explanation for the conflicting results in the literature concerning the empirical relation between collateral and loan risk. We posit that differences in collateral characteristics, such as liquidity, may be associated with the empirical dominance of different risk-collateral relations implied by economic theory. Using credit registry data and a novel identification strategy to control for borrower and lender selection effects allows us to differentiate between the ex ante and ex post theories of collateral. We find that collateral overall is associated with lower risk premiums and higher default rates. The results indicate an important role for collateral in mitigating losses and reducing risk-taking incentives, consistent with ex post theories. Liquid collateral is associated with especially low risk premiums, and these loans perform better than those with illiquid collateral or no collateral. We also find that individual collateral types exhibit significant variation in terms of risk-collateral relations, with some consistent with ex ante theories and others with ex post theories. Our results suggest that the conflicting results in the literature may occur because different samples may be dominated by different types of collateral with different economic characteristics.

Whose bailout is it anyway? The roles of politics in PPP bailouts of small businesses vs. banks

Journal of Financial Intermediation 2023 56, 101044
We address whether politics played important roles in allocating Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) bailout funds, and whether PPP allocations effectively bailed out small businesses vs. banks. Our econometric evidence suggests that politicians/other government agents at national and local levels effectively steered PPP funds toward small businesses and banks based on their locations to try to influence election outcomes. We also uncover evidence that some PPP funds were effectively allocated by lobbying efforts of certain banks. Findings are confirmed by a novel mediation analysis and numerous robustness checks. We also find banks profited from PPP through multiple channels, adding to extant findings, and suggesting that PPP may have effectively bailed out banks as well as small businesses, but through different political influences.

Banking on deforestation: the cost of nonenforcement

Journal of Financial Intermediation 2026 67, 101211 open access
Despite surging environmental laws, how their enforcement influences banks' management of climate risks remains underexplored.Using the Brazilian Amazon as a laboratory, we examine the impact of a shock to environmental law enforcement capacity on bank management of risks arising from deforestation-a significant but understudied climate risk.After enforcement declined, Brazilian banks significantly altered their priorities to more short-term profitability over longerterm risk concerns.Banks greatly increased lending to agribusinesses engaged in deforestation and actively shifted resources to regions with higher deforestation potential.Results suggest that without rigorous enforcement, banks may fail to fully internalize deforestation risks, despite existing environmental laws.

Conglomeration versus Strategic Focus: Evidence from the Insurance Industry

Journal of Financial Intermediation 2000 9(4), 323-362 open access
We provide evidence on the validity of the it conglomeration hypothesis versus the strategic focus hypothesis for financial institutions using data on U.S. insurance companies. We distinguish between the hypotheses using profit scope economies, which measure the relative efficiency of joint versus specialized production, taking both costs and revenues into account. The results suggest that the conglomeration hypothesis dominates for some types of financial service providers and the strategic focus hypothesis dominates for other types. This may explain the empirical puzzle of why joint producers and specialists both appear to be competitively viable in the long run. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: G22, G28, G34, L23, L89.

Did TARP reduce or increase systemic risk? The effects of government aid on financial system stability

Journal of Financial Intermediation 2020 43, 100810
Theory suggests that government aid to banks may either reduce or increase systemic risk. We are the first to address this issue empirically, analyzing the Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP). Analysis suggests that TARP significantly reduced contributions to systemic risk, particularly for larger and safer banks, and those in better local economies. This occurred primarily through a capital cushion channel that reduced market leverage by increasing the value of common equity. Results are robust to endogeneity and selection bias checks. Findings yield policy conclusions about whether to aid banks, the best targets for future assistance, and short-term versus long-term effects.

Bank ownership type and banking relationships

Journal of Financial Intermediation 2008 17(1), 37-62
We formulate and test hypotheses about the role of bank ownership type—foreign, state-owned, and private domestic banks—in banking relationships. Our application uses data from India, an important developing nation. The empirical results are consistent with all of our hypotheses with regard to foreign banks. First, these banks tend to establish relationships with relatively transparent firms. Second, firms that have relationships with foreign banks are more likely to enter into multiple banking relationships and to maintain a larger number of such relationships. Finally, firms banking with foreign banks are more likely than others to diversify relationships across bank ownership types. The data are also consistent with the hypotheses that firms with relationships with state-owned banks are relatively unlikely to maintain multiple banking relationships, tend to interact with a smaller number of banks, and less often diversify across ownership types.