Knowledge that Transforms

Abstract We show theoretically and empirically that the cross-section of stock return idiosyncratic volatilities contains useful information about the ICAPM. We construct a proxy cross-sectional bivariate idiosyncratic volatility (CBIV) for the covariance risk between the market and the unobserved hedge portfolio under the ICAPM. Consistent with the ICAPM pricing relation, CBIV is a robust and significant predictor of the equity risk premium. We further show that the return predictability of the tail index in Kelly and Jiang (2014) can be explained by the ICAPM covariance risk.

Abstract We examine whether location within a dense regional cluster of interconnected businesses affected firm performance during the Great Recession and the subsequent recovery. Firms in denser regional clusters experienced faster sales growth than their rivals in less dense clusters, especially firms operating in more competitive industries and those more able to reap agglomeration benefits. They also faced lower uncertainty, invested more in both physical capital and intangible capital, and maintained higher employment growth. Their greater resiliency and agility led to significant increases in their valuations. These results suggest that regional clusters provide competitive advantages during turbulent times.

Abstract One-third of deals in the venture capital (VC) market involve a founder and investor from the same university. Venture capitalists are more likely to invest in and place larger bets on startups with founders from their alma mater. These deals are also more likely to lead to IPOs postfunding. Tests using VC partner turnover confirm a direct link between education ties and funding likelihood. Taken together, our results suggest that university connections facilitate improved deal-making and outcomes, rather than diverting funds toward lower-quality startups.

Abstract Consistent with theories on the equilibrium matching between capital structure and employee job risk aversion, we find a robust, positive association between a firm’s leverage and its employees’ family labor income diversification. Higher-Leverage firms also recruit new employees with greater income diversification. For identification, we exploit two policy shocks that exogenously change employee income diversification and firm leverage, respectively. Individual employee-level tests further reveal that workers with differential risk attitudes adjust their job choices and household labor income portfolios in response to significant shifts in their employers’ leverage. Finally, human bankruptcy costs contribute to the general level of corporate risk-taking.

Abstract Order flow segmentation prevents direct interactions between U.S. retail and institutional investors. Using the imbalance in observable internalized retail trades, we show wholesalers use retail flow to provide liquidity to institutional investors, especially when liquidity is scarce. Our institutional liquidity cost ( $ ILC $ ) measures average absolute retail trade imbalances, positing that institutions holding stocks with greater such averages more often resort to the expensive wholesaler-provided liquidity. $ ILC $ is correlated with expected institutional price impacts. Unlike existing illiquidity measures, $ ILC $ has economically meaningful relations with institutional holding horizons and yields annualized liquidity premia of 2.7%–3.2% post-2010, even after excluding microcap stocks.

Abstract This paper documents that 56% of nonprofessional social media investment analysts (SMAs) are skilled and declare beliefs that generate positive abnormal returns (ABRs), while 44% produce negative ABRs. 13% of all SMAs are high-skill type and produce a 1-week 3-factor alpha of 61 bps, while the remaining 87% generate only 6 bps. The distinctive features of high-skill SMAs are primarily firm and industry specializations. Although SMAs tend to extrapolate and herd, their expectations are not systematically wrong. For higher-skilled SMAs compared to the less-skilled ones, extrapolation fades more quickly, and herding is lower, consistent with theory.

Abstract We examine whether intellectual property protection facilitates the greater incorporation of firm-specific information into the stock price. Employing the staggered, country-level adoption of the Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS), we find that after adoption, stock prices become less synchronous, consistent with more firm-specific information being impounded into the stock price. We further show that this effect is more pronounced for more innovative firms, firms in countries with stronger law enforcement, and firms with more financial analyst coverage. Finally, we document that TRIPS induces a richer information environment characterized by more management forecasts and media coverage.

Abstract We document that firms with greater product similarity to their peers exhibit lower rates of financial fraud. We show that peer similarity is associated with better information environments, which is consistent with monitors’ enhanced ability to benchmark against other firms. The negative relation between product similarity and fraud remains after controlling for alternative mechanisms including incentive compensation structures, competition, and internal and external governance characteristics. Overall, our findings suggest that greater peer similarity increases the marginal cost of fraud, and therefore, ex ante disincentivizing managers from committing fraud.

Abstract Existing portfolio combination rules that optimize the out-of-sample performance under parameter uncertainty assume multivariate normally distributed returns. However, we show that this assumption is not innocuous because fat tails in returns lead to poorer out-of-sample performance of the sample mean–variance and sample global minimum-variance (GMV) portfolios relative to normality. Consequently, when returns are fat-tailed, portfolio combination rules should allocate less to the sample mean–variance and sample GMV portfolios, and more to the risk-free asset, than the normality assumption prescribes. Empirical evidence shows that accounting for fat tails in the construction of optimal portfolio combination rules significantly improves their out-of-sample performance.

Abstract We document significant increases in the suspension of ongoing drug projects following the passage of the Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act of 2007 (FDAAA), which mandates that pharmaceutical companies publicly disclose detailed clinical study results. Our results suggest a causal interpretation through difference-in-differences analyses that exploit variations in pre-FDAAA information environments. We also show evidence that fewer new projects are initiated after the FDAAA. Drug developers’ learning from peer failures is the primary mechanism, further amplified by financial constraints. We also examine the consequences of enhanced information disclosure, including changes in firm investment efficiency, drug quality, and disease morbidity.