Knowledge that Transforms

When should a government provide a service in-house, and when should it contract out provision? We develop a model in which the provider can invest in improving the quality of service or reducing cost. If contracts are incomplete, the private provider has a stronger incentive to engage in both quality improvement and cost reduction than a government employee has. However, the private contractor's incentive to engage in cost reduction is typically too strong because he ignores the adverse effect on noncontractible quality. The model is applied to understanding the costs and benefits of prison privatization.

What determines the allocative efficiency of markets? Why are double auctions, even with untrained human traders, allocationally efficient? We provide a simple explanation for these complex phenomena by showing how externally observable rules that define a market cause high allocative efficiency when individuals remain within the confines of these rules. We also show how the oft-ignored shape of extramarginal demand and supply affects efficiency by influencing the inverse relationship between the magnitude of efficiency loss and its probability.

Spatial separation of racial and ethnic groups may theoretically have positive or negative effects on the economic performance of those groups. We examine the effects of segregation on outcomes for blacks in schooling, employment, and single parenthood. We find that blacks in more segregated areas have significantly worse outcomes than blacks in less segregated areas. We control for the endogeneity of location choice using instruments based on political factors, topographical features, and residence before adulthood. A one standard deviation decrease in segregation would eliminate one-third of the black-white differences in most of our outcomes.

This paper develops an approach to the study of democratic policy-making where politicians are selected by the people from those citizens who present themselves as candidates for public office. The approach has a number of attractive features. First, it is a conceptualization of a pure form of representative democracy in which government is by, as well as of, the people. Second, the model is analytically tractable, being able to handle multidimensional issue and policy spaces very naturally. Third, it provides a vehicle for answering normative questions about the performance of representative democracy.

Hyperbolic discount functions induce dynamically inconsistent preferences, implying a motive for consumers to constrain their own future choices. This paper analyzes the decisions of a hyperbolic consumer who has access to an imperfect commitment technology: an illiquid asset whose sale must be initiated one period before the sale proceeds are received. The model predicts that consumption tracks income, and the model explains why consumers have asset-specific marginal propensities to consume. The model suggests that financial innovation may have caused the ongoing decline in U. S. savings rates, since financial innovation increases liquidity, eliminating commitment opportunities. Finally, the model implies that financial market innovation may reduce welfare by providing “too much” liquidity.

Life-cycle models of labor supply predict a positive relationship between hours supplied and transitory changes in wages. We tested this prediction using three samples of wages and hours of New York City cabdrivers, whose wages are correlated within days but uncorrelated between days. Estimated wage elasticities are significantly negative in two out of three samples. Elasticities of inexperienced drivers average approximately −1 and are less than zero in all three samples (and significantly less than for experienced drivers in two of three samples). Our interpretation of these findings is that cabdrivers (at least inexperienced ones): (i) make labor supply decisions “one day at a time” instead of intertemporally substituting labor and leisure across multiple days, and (ii) set a loose daily income target and quit working once they reach that target.

Two of the most interesting facts of the postwar international growth experience are (1) the conditional convergence finding that, after controlling for measures of education and government policies, poor countries tend to grow faster than rich ones; and (2) a small group of export-oriented economies in East Asia have been able to grow at rates that are so high that they defy historical comparisons. This paper shows that it is possible to explain these facts by combining a weak form of the factor-price-equalization theorem of international trade with the Ramsey model of economic growth.

The term “money illusion” refers to a tendency to think in terms of nominal rather than real monetary values. Money illusion has significant implications for economic theory, yet it implies a lack of rationality that is alien to economists. This paper reviews survey questions regarding people's reactions to variations in inflation and prices, designed to shed light on the psychology that underlies money illusion. We propose that people often think about economic transactions in both nominal and real terms, and that money illusion arises from an interaction between these representations, which results in a bias toward a nominal evaluation.

Does the period over which individuals evaluate outcomes influence their investment in risky assets? Results from this study show that the more frequently returns are evaluated, the more risk averse investors will be. The results are in line with the behavioral hypothesis of “myopic loss aversion,” which assumes that people are myopic in evaluating outcomes over time, and are more sensitive to losses than to gains. The results have relevance for the equity premium puzzle, and also for the marketing strategies of fund managers.

This paper develops a model of the breakup or unification of nations. In each nation the decision to separate is taken by majority voting. A basic trade-off between the efficiency gains of unification and the costs in terms of loss of control on political decisions is highlighted. The model emphasizes political conflicts over redistribution policies. The main results of the paper are i) when income distributions vary across regions and the efficiency gains from unification are small, separation occurs in equilibrium; and ii) when all factors of production are perfectly mobile, all incentives for separation disappear.