Knowledge that Transforms

Abstract This article extends the rare disaster framework by introducing a model with a time-varying disaster recovery feature. The model yields closed-form pricing formulas for stocks and dividend strips. Calibrated using international disaster data, it quantitatively captures both the unconditional and conditional term structures of equity risk premia. It replicates key empirical patterns, including a downward-sloping unconditional term structure of one-period returns and a countercyclical conditional slope, and generates novel predictions for capital asset pricing model beta, alpha, and price.

Abstract This article explores a new channel through which exchange-traded funds (ETFs) can affect underlying asset prices. In over-the-counter markets, daily disclosure of ETF portfolio holdings increases price transparency and therefore retail investors’ bargaining power. I show that ETF-held municipal bonds have significantly lower dealer markups than observationally similar non-ETF-held bonds. This effect cannot be explained by bond selection or ETFs’ own trading activity. Rather, ETFs’ disclosure of end-of-day bond pricing is associated with lower retail markups by 5–9 basis points.

Abstract How can managers be incentivized to create both financial and social value? Since managers can anticipate how their decisions impact social performance metrics, they may game a compensation scheme based on these measures. Nevertheless, the optimal compensation contract still incorporates social performance metrics when the board’s preferred level of social investment exceeds the level that maximizes the stock price. In this case, gaming distorts social investments, and the sensitivity of pay to social performance is reduced to mitigate this effect. When multiple independent social performance measures are available, the inefficiencies caused by gaming can be alleviated. Our findings suggest that efforts to harmonize social performance measurement may have unintended negative consequences.

Abstract We investigate the importance of time-varying discount rates for commodity prices using an index based on twenty-three commodities for the period 1959–2024. We show that in commodities markets, unlike other financial markets, time variation in discount rates plays a much smaller role. Instead, prices forecast cash flows as well as discount rates. A high price for a commodity today, measured as a low percentage net convenience yield, forecasts both a high future convenience yield and a low expected return. For longer horizons, variation in percentage net convenience yields seems mainly driven by net convenience yield growth, making commodities much closer to the classical textbook view of price changes representing news about cash flows.

Abstract We construct tradable risk factors using combinations of large and liquid mutual funds (long leg) and ETFs (exchange-traded funds) (long and short legs), based on their holdings, for both retail and institutional investors. Exploiting a novel dataset, our tradable factors take into account ETF shorting costs. Assessing the performance of our tradable factors against standard “on-paper” factors, we uncover an implementation shortfall of 2–4 percent annually. Shorting fees and transaction costs contribute to 58 percent of the performance differential between tradable and “on-paper” factors, assigning a non-trivial role to the opportunity cost of not trading the exact “on-paper” portfolio.

Abstract We explore the effects of a blockchain-based environmental monitoring technology on emissions. Our model of firm competition in the presence of regional regulators reveals that blockchain adoption reduces industrial pollution but triggers business relocation, creating trade-offs between local emission reduction and economic contraction. When pollution-induced social losses are highly dispersed across cities, a partial-adoption equilibrium fails to mitigate aggregate emissions because of the pollution leakage. We further present the first piece of empirical evidence corroborating model predictions, by taking advantage of a recent regulation change in China. The concentrations of SO2, NO2, and CO in blockchain-adopting cities are on average 16.6 percent, 7.9 percent, and 4.6 percent, respectively, lower than other cities. However, blockchain-based monitoring disproportionately hurts the industrial sector, and the average economic growth are 1.8–2.6 percent lower than other cities. Firms in adopting cities open more non-local plants to avoid regulation.

Abstract Institutional investors affected by hurricanes subsequently support environmental proposals in non-affected firms even if they never voted for similar initiatives. Affected investors raise their holdings in firms where their pro-environment votes are consequential. The increased voting support after hurricanes has real effects as environmental proposals endorsed by more hurricane-afflicted investors are more likely to pass. Moreover, both market capitalization and analysts’ recommendations decline after firms pass environmental proposals. Our evidence suggests that natural disasters raise institutional investors’ concerns about the environment and about potential fund flow disruptions. These concerns, in turn, influence environmental activism, corporate policies, and firm performance.

Abstract Using unique data on Italian households from 2011 to 2015, we examine how investor demand-side and bank supply-side characteristics relate to households’ holdings of bonds issued by their own bank. Households with a higher concentration of own bank bonds tend to have a lower education level, a shorter investment horizon, and less wealth. Controlling for investment and investor attributes, households exhibit high bank bond concentration when the issuing bank has high funding needs, low profitability, or a high branch market share. Furthermore, we show that a buy-and-hold strategy on bank bonds yields lower returns than one on government bonds over the same period. These findings offer insights into retail bond issuance, an important source of funding for banks in times of market stress.

Abstract This article highlights a novel channel through which the level of deposits matters for bank fragility and efficiency. We augment a global-game model of bank runs with a consumption-saving choice that determines deposit size in the initial period. We derive two key results. First, depositors’ incentives to run increase with the amount of savings held as bank deposits. Second, a saving externality emerges because individual depositors fail to internalize the impact of their deposit decisions on the likelihood of a bank run. This leads to depositors’ over-saving and inefficient bank liquidity provision, as well as excessive bank fragility. Finally, we characterize the optimal policy to implement the efficient allocation.

Abstract In a tender offer by a value-increasing raider, voting shareholders face a free-rider problem. However, when they are not atomistic, they do not completely free-ride. In contrast, non-voting shareholders, who are never pivotal for the success of the offer, are absolute free-riders. Hence, in this case there is a gain from departing from one share/one vote. This departure also has a cost; there is an increased vulnerability to value-decreasing raiders, and the optimal governance structure balances the cost and the gain.