Knowledge that Transforms

Abstract Investors face reduced incentives to finance technological change that devalues their legacy investments. We formalize this “asset overhang” and apply our framework to the climate-banking nexus. Leveraging (1) firm-level data on green innovation and diffusion and (2) the sets of product and technology market peers, we implement a shift-share design that identifies banks’ credit facilities impacted by green firm activities. We find that green firms imposing an asset overhang across all lenders are 3 to 7 percentage points more likely to report tight credit supply conditions. The presence of legacy-free investors mitigates the asset overhang problem, thereby facilitating technological change.

Abstract We document that judges’ political affiliations are strongly associated with the level of judicial penalties levied against companies. For example, Republican-appointed judges impose larger fines for hiring illegal immigrants, while Democrat-appointed judges impose larger fines for pollution- and environment-related violations. Time-series variation suggests that political partisanship, not fixed ideological differences, drives these findings. The differences become amplified when higher-court judicial vacancies exist and in the months before national elections. Our findings highlight the importance of political polarization for U.S. companies and illustrate how judicial composition can affect firms’ incentive to avoid violating laws connected to partisan issues.

Abstract We examine how macroeconomic expectations affect consumer decisions, using an experiment with 2,872 credit card customers at a large commercial bank. In the experiment, participants are randomized into receiving expert forecasts of inflation and the nominal exchange rate. We find that forecasts shift inflation and exchange rate expectations, but do not change spending or self-reported consumption plans as predicted by standard models of intertemporal choice. Results from a supplementary survey experiment suggest that consumers are sophisticated enough to anticipate nominal rigidities and reduce spending on durables for precautionary reasons, counteracting the effects predicted by standard models of intertemporal optimization.

Abstract We study the effects of underquoting, the practice of setting listing prices below sellers’ reservation values, on housing auctions. Laws introduced in Australia to deter underquoting lead to higher listing prices, but also to declines in sales prices and sales probabilities. We develop a quantitative model to formalize predictions under different assumptions about bidders’ information and rationality. The effects of the laws are matched by a version of the model in which participating bidders overbid. While both behavioral biases arising during the auction and switching costs can explain overbidding, empirical and survey evidence points to behavioral biases as the main mechanism.

Abstract I study the yield curve dynamics in a general equilibrium model with financial intermediaries facing financing constraints. When constraints bind, intermediaries reallocate their portfolios, causing deadweight losses in aggregate consumption, thus affecting savers’ marginal utility. Because the yield curve is a forecast of marginal utility, intermediaries’ constraints show up, via general equilibrium forces, in long-term yields. I show that the mechanism connecting intermediaries’ constraints and long-term yields produces highly nonlinear interest rate dynamics and a positive real term premium in equilibrium. I extend the analysis to the nominal yield curve using a simple Taylor rule.

Abstract We introduce a present-value identity relating a firm’s market value to expected future markups, output growth, discount rates, and investments. Distinguishing current from expected markups reveals five empirical facts: (1) Expected markups account for half the rise in U.S. firm values since 1980. (2) The rise in aggregate expected markups reflects market-share reallocation toward high-expected-markup firms and within-firm increases. (3) Expected markups are linked to intangible investments. (4) They relate negatively to discount rates over time but (5) positively to abnormal returns across firms. Finally, variation in long-term expected markups is primarily associated with asset prices rather than current markups.

Abstract We study the efficacy of remote arrangements between CEOs and firms. Such arrangements attract executive talent and overcome labor market segmentation but introduce frictions. Remote arrangements are associated with lower operating performance, firm valuation, and insider reviews. Using the private costs from uprooting the CEO’s spouse as an instrument for the CEO’s decision to seek remote work, we find similar negative effects. The performance decline increases for CEOs who live further away and who cross multiple time zones. The mechanisms include the CEO’s loss of information, short-termism, and consumption of leisure, such as recreational boats and beach homes.

Abstract We combine administrative data with a life cycle structural model that exploits the unique features of the U.K. mortgage market to analyze the sources of inaction and to estimate borrowers’ nonpecuniary remortgaging costs. The utility costs needed to generate a given level of inaction depend on monetary gains from remortgaging and on the importance of those monetary gains for agents, which in turn depend on the (endogenously determined) marginal utility of consumption. The model results reveal significant nonpecuniary costs of action that, when measured as a proportion of borrower income, are larger for the young and for lower-income households.

Abstract We study the importance of production networks for the transmission of monetary policy using the stock market reaction as laboratory. We attribute 55% to 85% of the overall response to network effects. Large network effects are a robust feature of the data; we document similar patterns in realized fundamentals. Matching sparsity and the first two outdegrees industry-by-industry can explain large network effects. A simple model with intermediate inputs predicts the reaction of stock returns follows a spatial autoregression, which we exploit for our empirical strategy. Our results suggest production networks are an important mechanism for transmitting monetary policy shocks.

Abstract Mortgage cramdown enabled bankruptcy judges to discharge the underwater portion of a mortgage in a chapter 13 bankruptcy until the Supreme Court disallowed this practice in 1993. We investigate the impact of mortgage cramdown on household distress exploiting the random assignment of cases to judges. The impact of bankruptcy protection on foreclosures is reduced by more than half after the Supreme Court disallowed cramdown. Our results suggest that large principal reductions considerably decrease homeowners’ distress by reducing debt overhang.