Knowledge that Transforms

We employ a novel machine learning technique to classify analysts’ forecast revisions into five types based on how the revision weighs publicly available signals. We label these forecast types as quant, sundry, contrarian, herder, and independent forecasts. Our tests reveal that a greater diversity of forecast types within the consensus is associated with increased consensus dispersion and improved consensus accuracy. Additionally, consensus diversity is associated with an improved information environment for firms, as reflected in reduced earnings announcement information asymmetry and volatility, higher earnings response coefficients, and faster price formation. Our study sheds light on how analysts revise their forecasts and documents capital market benefits associated with different analyst forecasting approaches.

Using a unique hand-collected dataset of purchase obligations, we find that customers’ financial reporting quality is positively associated with future supply contracts, indicating that suppliers are more willing to contract with customers who provide them with better information. Further, the association between customers’ financial reporting quality and future supply contracts is stronger for customers with strong bargaining power, which is consistent with suppliers relying more on financial reports when they have less access to customers’ private information. Collectively, our results suggest that customers’ financial reporting quality plays an important role in influencing suppliers’ decisions to contract with customers for the future supply of goods and services. Data Availability: Data for dependent variable are manually collected and data for all other variables are available from public sources cited in the text.

We provide the first evidence after Regulation G on firms’ non-GAAP EPS denominator choices and whether they are informative or opportunistic. From 2013 to 2019, 17 percent of annual non-GAAP EPS numbers use denominators different from that of GAAP diluted EPS, which makes denominator adjustments among the most prevalent individual types of non-GAAP adjustments. For firms reporting GAAP and non-GAAP profits or GAAP losses and non-GAAP profits, we provide evidence consistent with denominator adjustments increasing non-GAAP EPS informativeness. Our evidence also suggests that opportunism in denominator choices is concentrated in firms reporting GAAP losses and non-GAAP profits and failing to adjust the denominator. Such nonadjustment is inconsistent with SEC requirements to report non-GAAP EPS “on a diluted basis” because the EPS denominator for a GAAP loss excludes dilutive claims. Although the SEC largely overlooks such firms, they are more likely, on average, to report non-GAAP EPS that analysts consider inflated.

We examine the effects of stock market access, and in particular trading hours, on retail investment performance. Using discontinuities around time zone borders, we find that plausibly exogenous decreases in waking trading hours are associated with meaningful increases in retail investors’ capital gains, as reported on tax returns for the U.S. population. Our results indicate that limiting trading hours curbs active retail trading, leading to improvements in portfolio performance. Our findings identify one negative effect of decreasing barriers to entry for retail investors in trading markets.

Tax aggressiveness presents nontax risks to firms’ cash flow. Evaluating these risks requires information beyond the accounting function’s expertise, resulting in high processing costs to acquire and integrate risk information relevant to tax strategies. Managers can rationally adapt by making assumptions about risk information, potentially resulting in decision biases when evaluating the risk-reward tradeoff of tax aggressiveness. Using a novel regulatory setting in the U.S. insurance industry, I examine whether the adoption of mandated enterprise risk assessments updates managers’ prior beliefs about the nontax risks of tax aggressiveness. I find that as regulation requires managers to accept processing costs to acquire and integrate risk information, managers learn about previously underestimated nontax risks and significantly reduce tax aggressiveness. Results suggest that absent firm-wide internal risk information, managers can use aggressive tax positions without fully considering nontax risks. Data Availability: Data used in this study are available from public sources identified in the paper.

Research indicates that auditors have an impoverished understanding of trial preparation factors that, independent of audit quality, can significantly elevate audit litigation risk. As the scholarly literature sheds little insight about the nature and implications of these factors, we identify what factors audit litigators consider in trial preparation, how they expect these factors to affect litigation outcomes, and how they attempt to leverage these factors. To do so, we interview 39 audit litigators, who identify factors germane to trial venues, jury pools, and case arguments. Guided by the elaboration likelihood model, we construct a framework that predicts these factors influence litigation outcomes by changing jurors’ motivation and/or capability to elaborate. Importantly, we find that litigators who defend (sue) auditors strategically maneuver these factors to increase (decrease) the likelihood of higher juror elaboration, because higher elaboration is favorable to auditors. We discuss implications of our results for practice and research.

This study documents that M&A delistings are associated with a deterioration in the quality of analysts’ information environment for industry peer firms, measured by an increase in analysts’ absolute forecast errors and dispersion. This effect persists for six quarters and is larger when the delisting target firm contributes relatively more to the industry information environment. Further, we find that, among analysts forecasting earnings for an industry peer firm, those who also followed the delisted target firm in the pre-M&A period experience a larger increase in their absolute forecast errors. A comparison based on public versus private target firms also suggests that the loss of target firms’ public disclosures plays a role in the deterioration in the quality of analysts’ information environment. In additional analyses, we find evidence consistent with this effect resulting from a deterioration in analysts’ ability to exploit across-firm information complementarities.

This paper examines the effect of state-level monitoring on municipal governance, focusing on outcomes in financial reporting quality, local corruption, political entrenchment, and municipal financial soundness. I exploit the staggered adoption of fiscal monitoring policies that entail a regular review of municipal financial reports for signs of fiscal distress. I find that introducing these monitoring policies is associated with an increase in the proxies for reporting quality, a decrease in the number of corruption convictions, and a reduction in re-election likelihood for incumbent politicians. Consistent with the purpose of the policies, my evidence shows that fiscal health ratios of municipalities improve after initiating state monitoring. Collectively, my results are consistent with state fiscal monitoring improving several important aspects of municipal governance. Data Availability: Data are available from the public sources cited in the text.

Although activist short sellers can play a crucial role in fraud detection, they have come under scrutiny following accusations of systematically disseminating false negative information. We develop a framework delineating the roles of campaign-specific private information quality and short-selling dynamics in shaping disclosure incentives. We predict that the act of disclosure combined with pre-disclosure stock lending dynamics is informative about the quality of an activist’s private information. We find that increased pre-disclosure shorting intensity is associated with more negative post-disclosure returns, adverse media coverage, and consequential campaign outcomes, including auditor turnover, accounting restatements, class-action lawsuits, and performance-related delistings. Furthermore, elevated short-selling costs and risks magnify the association between pre-disclosure shorting intensity and post-disclosure underperformance. Finally, we examine V-shaped reversals and short covering following activists’ disclosures and find no evidence of systematic manipulation. We conclude that activists disclosing fraud allegations under their own names are discouraged from engaging in “short-and-distort” schemes. Data Availability: Data are available from the sources cited in the text.

Auditors collect evidence from clients that vary in social status. I investigate how these status differences interact with the costliness of auditor requests, thereby influencing client cooperation during evidence collection. I develop theory predicting that higher-status clients’ cooperation decisions will be more sensitive to differences in the costliness of requests than lower-status clients’ decisions. I test this theory across two experiments using multiple methods, leveraging the complementary strengths of each method. Experiment 1 is a more abstract experiment in the tradition of experimental economics, and Experiment 2 is a more contextualized experiment using participants with prior experience interacting with auditors. Results from both experiments support the theorized interaction between the costliness of audit requests and client social status. This conclusion carries implications for practitioners in assessing strategic tactics that will efficiently and effectively increase client cooperation. Data Availability: Contact the author.