Knowledge that Transforms

A simple construction that will be referred to as an error-duration model is shown to generate fractional integration and long memory. An error-duration representation also exists for many familiar ARMA models, making error duration an alternative to autoregression for explaining dynamic persistence in economic variables. The results lead to a straightforward procedure for simulating fractional integration and establish a connection between fractional integration and common notions of structural change. Two examples show how the error-duration model could account for fractional integration in aggregate employment and in asset price volatility.

We propose a procedure for measuring the effect of systematic discrimination in the income tax. Different socioeconomic groups are assumed to face different tax schedules. We show that a welfare loss is caused by the group specificity of schedules, the dollar value of which is our measure of discrimination. Defining vertical equity as the dollar value of the tax system's welfare superiority over an equal yield flat tax, discrimination equates to a loss in vertical equity. The Australian income tax is found to discriminate against wage and salary earners, causing a roughly 1% loss of social welfare in 1984.

We test the hypothesis associated with a standard assumption in the theoretical literature on learning: that economic agents interpret information identically. We use a data set based on a survey of Israeli business executives forecasting future inflation. One of the main advantages of using this data is that a major change in the inflation regime in 1985 can be treated as a natural experiment in new beliefs formation. We develop a methodology for testing this hypothesis and find evidence that is inconsistent with the identical-interpretation hypothesis, but is consistent with the proposed alternative.

In an oligopolistic product market, shareholders strategically use information on rival firms'performances when designing management-incentive contracts. When shareholders use industry performance information through relative performances evaluation (RPE), they evaluate their manager's effort more easily, but hinder collusive behavior in the product market. However, when compensation is positively linked to the industry performance through strategic group performance evaluation (SGPE), the credibility of a manager's commitment to product market collusion increases, and the sustainability of a collusive outcome increases. I test how industry performance affects management-incentive compensation using the data from 796 Japanese firms during the period 1968 to 1992. The results show that management compensation is positively linked to industry profit, suggesting the use of SGPE in management-incentive compensation. Cross-sectional analysis shows that the positive effect of industry profit on management compensation is higher in competitive industries than in concentrated industries. The positive effect is greater in slow-growing industries than in fast-growing industries. Empirical tests incorporating the risk component method show the same results. These results are consistent with the argument that, in a growing market or in a concentrated market, the value of SGPE diminishes as the value of commitment to collusion diminishes.

This paper contributes to the empirical literature that tests the implications of risk sharing across regions or countries. Rather than test the null of full insurance, the estimation method produces a parameter that measures the fraction of the annuity value of individual income that individuals of different regions (or nations) pool. Comparing the provinces of Canada, the states of the United States, and the G-7 countries, I find similar degrees of risk sharing within regions of Canada and the U.S. that exceed the risk sharing that occurs across countries. Specifically, more than two-thirds of the fitted annual variation in regional consumption is common to all regions compared to less than one-third in the case of G-7 countries.

This paper examines the relation between expected stock returns and their conditional volatility over different holding periods and across different states of the economy. Seminonparametric density estimation and Monte Carlo integration are used to obtain the expected returns and conditional volatility at various holding intervals. We uncover a significantly positive risk and return relation at long holding intervals, such as one and two years, which is nonexistent at short holding periods such as one month. We also show that the existing finding in the literature of a negative risk and return relation may be attributable to misspecification.

This paper bridges the gap between processes where shocks are permanent and those with transitory shocks by formulating a process in which the long-run impact of each innovation is time-varying and stochastic. In the stochastic permanent breaks (STOPBREAK) process, frequent transitory shocks are supplemented by occasional permanent shifts. Consistency and asymptotic normality of quasi-maximum-likelihood estimates is established, and locally best hypothesis tests of the null of a random walk are developed. The model is applied to relative prices of pairs of stocks and significant test statistics result.

This is the first study that decomposes unemployment into its structural and cyclical components and investigates their impact on income distribution, controlling for the influence of inflation. Increases in structural unemployment have a substantial aggravating impact on income inequality. Inflation has a progressive impact, which is due to the unexpected component. The study demonstrates that previous work failed to take into account the stochastic trend behavior of the variables. Consequently, specifications used by previous research cannot predict the behavior of income shares after 1983, whereas the specification used by this paper generates accurate forecasts. The results also indicate that a sustained GNP growth is not necessarily associated with an improvement in income inequality, because sustained GNP growth can coexist with increased structural unemployment.

An important factor driving energy policy over the past two decades has been the “energy paradox,” the perception that consumers apply unreasonably high hurdle rates to energy-saving investments. We explore one possible explanation for this apparent puzzle: that realized returns fall short of the returns promised by engineers and product manufacturers. Using a unique data set, we find that the realized return to attic insulation is statistically significant, but the median estimate (9.7%) is almost identical to a discount rate for this investment implied by a CAPM analysis. We conclude that the case for the energy paradox is weaker than has previously been believed.

In this paper, we analyze the decision by teachers to leave the profession in a dependent competing risks framework. The econometric model allows for a flexible, semiparametric specification of the duration-dependence structure and of the unobserved heterogeneity distribution in each exit-specific hazard function. Our results obtained for a large sample of UK teachers affirm the importance of teacher salaries and opportunity wages in the turnover decision of teachers and illustrate the insight gained from differentiating between multiple destinations or exit types.