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Does express delivery run ahead of stock price?

Review of Finance 2024 28(5), 1687-1724
We study the role of logistics information in the stock price discovery process. Using a proprietary dataset on parcel-level express delivery service records from one of the largest express service providers in China, we find that express delivery contains firm-specific information for stock pricing. A long/short portfolio of buying (selling) stocks with high (low) quarterly growth in the number of parcels sent by firms generates an 8.23 percent risk-adjusted annual return. The return predictability is more significantly driven by document, light, and business-to-business parcels, which reflects the intensity of a firm’s overall operations (rather than just sales growth), and by parcels sent to new addresses, which represents new business expansion. Echoing this return predictability, parcel growth also predicts firm growth, profitability, and earnings surprises. Finally, we provide evidence on return predictability associated with topology of logistic network identified by parcel delivery data.

Nowcasting Firms’ Operating Activities from Satellite Data on Thermal Infrared Radiation

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2026 61(3), 1073-1111
Practical real-world activities consume energy and emit thermal infrared radiation (TIR). Leveraging this physical fact, we develop a direct, real-time measure of firms’ operating activity using satellite data. Tracking 28,236 factories of Chinese listed firms, we find TIR declines significantly following operational shocks and strongly forecasts subsequent sales growth, costs, investment, employment, and profits. TIR also predicts future stock returns, especially among opaque firms and those with limited investor access, yet sophisticated investors largely ignore this information. Our findings highlight TIR as a distinctive, under-exploited indicator of corporate fundamentals.

Googling Investor Sentiment around the World

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2020 55(2), 549-580
We study how investor sentiment affects stock prices around the world. Relying on households’ Google search behavior, we construct a weekly measure of sentiment for 38 countries during 2004–2014. We validate the sentiment index in tests using sports outcomes and show that the sentiment measure is a contrarian predictor of country-level market returns. Furthermore, we document an important role of global sentiment in stock markets.

Does the media spotlight burn or spur innovation?

Review of Accounting Studies 2021 26(1), 343-390
We examine the effect of media coverage on firm innovation. Using a comprehensive sample of corporate news coverage and patenting over the period from 2000 to 2012, we find a negative relation between media coverage and firm innovation. We further document the two offsetting economic mechanisms underlying the impact of media coverage on innovation: the media’s role of short-term pressure on managers relates negatively to innovation, while its role of mitigating financial constraints is positively associated with innovation. Our findings provide new insights into the effect of news coverage on firms’ long-term growth.

The world price of home bias

Journal of Financial Economics 2010 97(2), 191-217
Theoretical arguments suggest that as the degree of a country's home bias increases, the global risk sharing between domestic and foreign investors will reduce and thereby increase the country's cost of capital. Consistent with this prediction, we find international differences in the cost of capital to be strongly and positively related to varying degrees of home bias for 38 markets. This finding is robust to different cost of capital proxies, different control variables, alternative home-bias measures, international tradability of stocks, and alternative specifications. Therefore, the overall evidence implies that countries may enjoy a significantly lower cost of capital by reducing the extent of their home bias and hence, increasing global risk sharing.

Does auditor choice matter to foreign investors? Evidence from foreign mutual funds worldwide

Journal of Banking & Finance 2014 46, 1-20
This study explores whether a firm’s auditor choice affects its ability to access foreign equity capital. Using the equity holdings of 35,665 foreign mutual funds from 30 countries for the period 1998–2009, we find evidence that appointing a Big 4 auditor is associated with the increased level of foreign mutual fund ownership in firms. Our results are robust when conditioned on firm-level information asymmetries, country-level information disclosure quality, and when employing the Enron–Andersen fiasco as the natural experiment. Furthermore, appointing Big 4 auditors is particularly important for firms to attract foreign capital during the 2008 global financial crisis.

Stock market liberalization and innovation

Journal of Financial Economics 2021 139(3), 985-1014
We investigate the effect of stock market liberalization on technological innovation. Using a sample of 20 economies that experience stock market liberalization, we find that these economies exhibit a higher level of innovation output after liberalization and that this effect is disproportionately stronger in more innovative industries. The relaxation of financial constraints, enhanced risk sharing between domestic and foreign investors, and improved corporate governance are three plausible channels that allow stock market liberalization to promote innovation. Finally, we show that technological innovation is a mechanism through which stock market liberalization affects productivity growth and therefore economic growth. Our paper provides new insights into the real effects of stock market liberalization on productivity growth and the economy.

Higher education and corporate innovation

Journal of Corporate Finance 2022 72, 102165
This paper investigates the impact of higher education on corporate innovation. To establish causality, we exploit a policy-induced exogenous shock in the supply of Chinese college-educated labor starting in 2003. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that Chinese firms in skilled industries generate better innovation outcomes as measured by patents and citations than those in unskilled industries. This effect is more pronounced among firms headquartered in a province with more science and engineering college graduates, young firms that are more likely to hire young graduates, and firms located near universities. Moreover, higher education expansion increases a firm's innovative human capital in terms of the number of educated employees and inventors. Finally, we show that technological innovation is a mechanism through which higher education affects productivity growth and, thus, the economy.

The Governance Effect of the Media's News Dissemination Role: Evidence from Insider Trading

Journal of Accounting Research 2015 53(2), 331-366
We investigate whether the media plays a role in corporate governance by disseminating news. Using a comprehensive data set of corporate and insider news coverage for the 2001–2012 period, we show that the media reduces insiders’ future trading profits by disseminating news on prior insiders’ trades available from regulatory filings. We find support for three economic mechanisms underlying the disciplining effect of news dissemination: the reduction of information asymmetry, concerns regarding litigation risk, and the impact on insiders’ personal wealth and reputation. Our findings provide new insights into the real effect of news dissemination.