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Option implied volatilities and the cost of issuing equity

Journal of Banking & Finance 2014 47, 88-101
The structure of a firm-commitment Seasoned Equity Offering (SEO) resembles a put-option underwritten by an investment bank syndicate (Smith, 1977). Employing implied volatilities from issuers’ stock options as a direct forward-looking measure, this paper examines the impact of expected price risk around SEO issue dates on the direct cost of issuing equity. Using a comprehensive sample of 1208 SEOs between 1996 and 2009, we find issuers with higher option implied volatilities raise less external equity capital and pay higher investment bank fees in the stock market, ceteris paribus. The effect of implied volatility on the investment bank fees is stronger for larger issuers with lower pre-SEO abnormal realized stock volatilities, and for SEOs with higher expected price pressures around issue dates. These relationships are robust to adjustments for correlations among control variables, sample selection bias and also simultaneous determination of offer size and SEO fees.

The Boss Knows Best: Directors of Research and Subordinate Analysts

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2019 54(3), 1403-1446
Research departments are managed by directors of research (DORs). Subordinate analysts working for higher-quality DORs provide superior earnings forecasts that elicit stronger market reactions, provide better investment recommendations, and have better career outcomes. For the broker, higher-quality DORs drive more trading commissions. Economically, analysts benefit the most from DOR–analyst industry alignment resulting from DORs’ former analyst experience. We provide several tests to mitigate endogeneity concerns and explore various mechanisms to explain these results. Overall, our article identifies a unique channel whereby the industry-specific and general human capital of top management filters through to individual subordinates and consequently improves organizational performance.

Do firms with specialized M&A staff make better acquisitions?

Journal of Financial Economics 2023 147(1), 75-105
We open the black box of the M&A decision process by examining whether specialized M&A staff, who perform a wide range of acquisition-related functions, improve acquisition performance. We find that the presence and the quality of specialized M&A staff is one of the most economically important determinants of acquisition performance. We explore mechanisms through which specialized M&A staff improve acquisition performance and investigate why only less than half of US firms employ such staff. Agency costs are a first-order determinant for specialized M&A staff's value-creation role. Such staff do not improve acquisition performance in firms with heightened agency conflicts.

Are all analysts created equal? Industry expertise and monitoring effectiveness of financial analysts

Journal of Accounting and Economics 2017 63(2-3), 179-206
We examine whether analysts’ prior industry experience influences their ability to serve as effective external firm monitors. Our analyses of firms’ financial disclosure quality, executive compensation and CEO turnover decisions portray a consistent picture that related pre-analyst industry experience is of critical importance for analysts to play an effective monitoring role. Coverage by analysts with such experience is associated with reduced earnings management, lower probability of committing financial misrepresentation, less CEO excess compensation, and higher performance sensitivity of CEO turnover. We also provide evidence on several plausible mechanisms through which industry expert analysts exert monitoring efforts and limit managerial opportunism.

Before an Analyst Becomes an Analyst: Does Industry Experience Matter?

Journal of Finance 2017 72(2), 751-792
Using hand‐collected biographical information on financial analysts from 1983 to 2011, we find that analysts making forecasts on firms in industries related to their preanalyst experience have better forecast accuracy, evoke stronger market reactions to earning revisions, and are more likely to be named Institutional Investor all‐stars. Plausibly exogenous losses of analysts with related industry experience have real financial market implications—changes in firms’ information asymmetry and price reactions are significantly larger than those of other analysts. Overall, industry expertise acquired from preanalyst work experience is valuable to analysts, consistent with the emphasis placed on their industry knowledge by institutional investors.

Are Analyst “Top Picks” Informative?

Review of Financial Studies 2024 37(5), 1538-1583
Following the Global Settlement, analysts extensively use a top pick designation allowing for greater granularity of information among buy recommended stocks, but conflicts of interest can potentially influence this designation. Examining a novel sample of top picks, we find that a calendar-time portfolio of top picks generates an abnormal performance of 17.6% per year. Top picks have greater investment value than do buy recommendations and alternative analyst investment strategies. Both institutional and retail investors trade in response to top picks. However, only institutional investors appear to identify top picks that have greater investment value when they are announced.

Are Analyst Short‐Term Trade Ideas Valuable?

Journal of Finance 2022 77(3), 1829-1875
Short‐term trade ideas are a component of analyst research highly valued by institutional investors. Using a novel and comprehensive database, we find that trade ideas have a stock price impact at least as large as recommendation and target price changes. Trade ideas based on expectations of future events are more informative than those identifying incomplete incorporation of past information in stock prices. Analysts with better access to a firm's management produce better trade ideas. Institutional investors trade in the direction of trade ideas. Investors following trade ideas can earn significant abnormal returns, consistent with analysts possessing valuable short‐term stock‐picking skills.

Is There Investment Value in the Soft-Dollar Arrangement? Evidence from Mutual Funds

Review of Financial Studies 2023 36(8), 3122-3162
Combining novel data on analyst employment history and mutual fund commission payments, we show that client funds generate higher returns on stocks for which they have access to research by industry expert analysts. The outperformance is greater when funds are more important clients and cannot be attributed to tipping. Client funds place modestly higher weights on stocks covered by industry expert analysts and allocate more commissions to brokers providing such coverage. For identification, we exploit exogenous analyst coverage disruptions. Our findings contribute to the debate on whether mutual funds obtain any investment value from access to analysts through the soft-dollar arrangement.