Knowledge that Transforms

A wide range of empirical biases hampers hedge fund databases. In this paper we focus upon survival-related biases and disentangle look-ahead biases due to self-selection of funds and due to fund termination. Self-selection arises because funds voluntarily report their information to data vendors and may decide to stop doing so. By extending existing methodology, we analyze persistence in hedge fund performance over the period 1994–2000, taking into account the above biases. The results show that look-ahead biases due to liquidation and self-selection enforce each other and may lead to overestimating expected returns by as much as 8% per year. Overall, the results are consistent with positive persistence in hedge fund returns at horizons of two and four quarters.

This paper analyzes the relation between agency conflicts and risk management. In contrast to previous contributions, our analysis incorporates not only stockholder-debtholder conflicts but also manager–stockholder conflicts. We show that the costs of both underinvestment and overinvestment are essential in determining the firm's hedging policy. In particular, firms that derive more of their value from assets in place (lower market-to-book ratios), although having lower costs of underinvestment, generally display larger costs of overinvestment. Thus, they may be more likely to hedge to control these overinvestment incentives. Our analysis explains why large profitable firms with fewer growth opportunities tend to hedge more (Bartram et al., 2004). It also provides a number of new predictions relating the benefits associated with risk management to various dimensions of the firm's economic environment.

This paper studies a unique buyback method allowing firms to reacquire their own shares on a separate trading line where only the firm is allowed to buy shares. This share repurchase method is called the Second Trading Line and has been extensively used by Swiss companies since 1997. This type of repurchase is unique for two reasons. First, unlike open market programs, the repurchasing company does not trade anonymously. Second, all transactions made by the repurchasing firm are publicly available in real time to every market participant. This is a case of instantaneous disclosure which contrasts sharply with other markets characterized by delayed or no disclosure. We document that the daily repurchase decision is statistically associated with short-term price changes and the release of firm-specific news. We also find that repurchases on the second trading line have a beneficial impact on the liquidity of repurchasing firms. Exchanges and regulators may consider the second trading line an attractive share reacquisition mechanism because of its transparency and positive liquidity effects.

To simultaneously account for the properties of interest-rate term structure and foreign exchange rates within one arbitrage-free framework, we propose a class of multi-currency quadratic models (MCQM) with an (m + n) factor structure in the pricing kernel of each economy. The m factors model the term structure of interest rates. The n factors capture the portion of the exchange rate movement that is independent of the term structure. Our modeling framework represents the first in the literature that not only explicitly allows independent currency movement, but also guarantees internal consistency across all economies without imposing any artificial constraints on the exchange rate dynamics. We estimate a series of multi-currency quadratic models using U.S. and Japanese LIBOR and swap rates and the exchange rate between the two economies. Estimation shows that independent currency factors are essential in releasing the tension between the currency movement and the term structure of interest rates.

This paper analyzes explicit buy recommendations for stocks published by German Personal Finance Magazines from 1995 to 2003. These recommendations earn significant abnormal returns of 2.58% within the five days around the publication day. Both the price-pressure hypothesis and the information hypothesis can be confirmed by our data. The price-pressure effect is most evident for small stocks and glamour stocks. However, whereas the initial price reaction to small stocks is additionally driven by permanent information value, this does not hold true for glamour stocks. In contrast, value stocks are associated with high cumulative abnormal returns that are solely driven by information value.

We derive equilibrium restrictions on the range of the transaction prices of American options on the stock market index and index futures. Trading over the lifetime of the options is accounted for, in contrast to earlier single-period results. The bounds on the reservation purchase price of American puts and the reservation write price of American calls are tight. We allow the market to be incomplete and imperfect due to the presence of proportional transaction costs in trading the underlying security and due to bid-ask spreads in option prices. The bounds may be derived for any given probability distribution of the return of the underlying security and admit price jumps and stochastic volatility. We assume that at least some of the traders maximize a time- separable utility function. The bounds are derived by applying the weak notion of stochastic dominance and are independent of a trader's particular utility function and initial portfolio position.

After completing the first version of this comment (September 2003), we became aware of a paper (Rustichini and Siconolfi 2003) in which a point similar to ours is made. We wish to thank the editor, Robert Shimer, and two anonymous referees for very helpful comments. Financial support from the Ministry for University and Research (project 2005135328_002) and the School for Advanced Studies in Venice to Gottardi and Fundación Ramón Areces and Spanish Dirección General de Ciencia y Tecnología (projects SEJ2004-07861 and HI2001-0039 and Ramón y Cajal Program) to Jerez is gratefully acknowledged.

This paper develops a model of a monetary economy in which individual firms are subject to idiosyncratic productivity shocks as well as general inflation. Sellers can change price only by incurring a real “menu cost.†We calibrate this cost and the variance and autocorrelation of the idiosyncratic shock using a new U.S. data set of individual prices due to Klenow and Kryvtsov. The prediction of the calibrated model for the effects of high inflation on the frequency of price changes accords well with international evidence from various studies. The model is also used to conduct numerical experiments on the economy’s response to various shocks. In none of the simulations we conducted did monetary shocks induce large or persistent real responses.

For industries ranging from software to pharmaceuticals and entertainment, there is an intense debate about the appropriate level of protection for intellectual property. The Internet provides a natural crucible to assess the implications of reduced protection because it drastically lowers the cost of copying information. In this paper, we analyze whether file sharing has reduced the legal sales of music. While this question is receiving considerable attention in academia, industry, and Congress, we are the first to study the phenomenon employing data on actual downloads of music files.We match an extensive sample of downloads to U.S. sales data for a large number of albums. To establish causality, we instrument for downloads using data on international school holidays. Downloads have an effect on sales that is statistically indistinguishable from zero. Our estimates are inconsistent We would like to thank Bharat Anand, Gary Becker, Bob Frank, Shane Greenstein, Austan Goolsbee, Alan Krueger, Steven Levitt, Tom Mroz, Alan Sorensen, Joel Waldfogel, Steven Wildman, Pai-Ling Yin, participants at numerous seminars, and two anonymous referees for helpful comments. This project would not have been possible without the assistance of several individuals and organizations. MixMasterFlame and the FlameNap network shared P2P data with us, and BigChampagne LLC, the CMJ Network, Nathaniel Leibowitz, and Nevil Brownlee generously provided auxiliary data. We thank Keith Ross and David Weekly for assistance in understanding the KaZaA, OpenNap, and WinMX search protocols and database indices. Sarah Woolverton and Christina Hsiung Chen provided superb research assistance. The financial support of the George F. Baker Foundation (Oberholzer-Gee) and the Kenan Faculty Fund (Strumpf) is gratefully acknowledged. We appreciated the aural support from Massive Attack, Sigur Ros, and the Mountain Goats.

To shed new light on the role private profit incentives play in promoting public health, in this paper we conduct an empirical study of the impact of pharmaceutical industry advertising on smoking cessation decisions. We link survey data on individual smokers with an archive of magazine advertisements. The rich survey data allow us to measure smokers' exposure to smoking cessation advertisements based on their magazine-reading habits. Because we observe the same information about the consumers that the advertisers observe, we can control for the potential endogeneity of advertising due to firms' targeting decisions. We find that when smokers are exposed to more advertising, they are more likely to attempt to quit and are more likely to have successfully quit.