Knowledge that Transforms

Abstract Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) increases healthcare costs, hospital stays, and mortality. This study examines how AMR affects antibiotic prescribing for cystitis in France (2002–2019), using data from general practitioners. A decision model is developed to capture prescribing behavior with and without rapid bacterial or susceptibility testing. To address endogeneity, veterinary antibiotic sales are used as instruments. Results show rising resistance prompts drug substitution, and physicians respond to predictable resistance trends. Counterfactual analysis reveals that reducing animal antibiotic use and limiting fluoroquinolones lowers resistance but affects substitution and consumer welfare differently. The study also assesses the value of rapid diagnostic testing.

Abstract We show an equivalence result in the representative-agent New-Keynesian model after demand, wage-markup and correlated price-markup and TFP shocks: assuming sticky prices and flexible wages yields identical allocations for GDP, consumption, labor, inflation and interest rates to the opposite case—flexible prices and sticky wages. This equivalence arises with identical price and wage Phillips-curve slopes and generalizes to any slopes' pair whose sum and product are identical. Equilibrium profits and wages are, however, substantially different; equivalence breaks when these factor-distributional implications matter for aggregate allocations, e.g. in New-Keynesian models with heterogeneous agents, endogenous firm entry, and non-constant returns to scale.

Abstract We estimate the elasticity of vacancy duration with respect to posted wages, using data from the near-universe of online job adverts in the United Kingdom. Our research design leverages firm-level wage policies that are plausibly exogenous to hiring difficulties on specific job vacancies, and controls for job and marketlevel fixed-effects. Wage policies are defined based on external information on pay settlements, or on sharp, internally-defined, firm-level changes. In our preferred specifications, we estimate duration elasticities in the range −3 to −5, which are substantially larger than the few existing estimates.

Abstract We construct a new dataset containing parcel sizes and building footprints of Canadian manufacturing plants and decompose industrial density (parcel size per worker) into: crowding (floorspace per worker); building height (floorspace to building footprint); and parcel coverage (building footprint to parcel size). We find that establishments occupy parcels more densely in big cities and central locations, and that larger establishments use less land per worker. Floorspace per worker is unrelated to distance from the city centre. The estimated elasticity of substitution between land- and non-land factors is small, between 0.14 and 0.42.

Abstract We examine the use of instrumental variable (IV) methods to measure the effect of a ceteris paribus change in an endogenous variable on an ordered outcome. Specifically, we use these methods to investigate the effect of neighborhood characteristics on subjective well-being (SWB) among participants in the Moving to Opportunity (MTO) housing voucher experiment. We find that the estimated positive effect of a decrease in neighborhood poverty on SWB is sensitive to the specification of the first-stage auxiliary equation for endogenous neighborhood poverty. Our results highlight the influential role of control function restrictions in complete triangular models.

Abstract We examine how the 2018–19 US–China trade war affected Mexican firms' trade and find that US tariff hikes on China increased exports to the US, imports from the US and Asia, and net exports overall. Distinguishing firms by global value chain (GVC) participation and parent country, we show that foreign multinationals in technology-intensive industries drove much of the adjustment. Heterogeneous responses between US and non-US MNEs highlight nearshoring dynamics and GVC reorganization toward Mexico. The results provide firm-level evidence of trade policy's transformative effects on GVCs and the role of MNEs in transmitting policy spillovers to third countries.

Abstract Using administrative data and a regression discontinuity design, we study the labor market effects of a government-sponsored award given to top-performing students on Colombia’s national college exit exam. The award signals field-specific skills, leading recipients to earn seven to ten percent more than comparable peers without the signal. The benefits are concentrated among graduates from lowerreputation institutions, who enter the market with weaker signals and gain access to better job matches and higher-paying firms. These returns persist for up to five years, driven by an upward shift in the intercept of the wage-experience profile of those with weaker signals.

Abstract The economic and social integration of refugees is a key policy concern and the situation of refugee women is particularly challenging, as many never enter the labor force. We study a reform of the Swedish integration program designed to tackle this issue by increasing women's participation in and access to active labor market programs. Using administrative data and a regression discontinuity design, we show that the reform resulted in lasting improvements in women's earnings and employment. We find no effects for men. Additional analyses suggest that individualizing financial benefits and early registration with the Public Employment Service are key mechanisms.

Abstract We develop a framework to analyze partial population experiments, a generalization of the cluster experimental design where clusters are assigned to different treatment intensities. Our framework allows for heterogeneity in cluster sizes and outcome distributions. We study the large-sample behavior of OLS estimators and cluster-robust variance estimators and show that (i) ignoring cluster heterogeneity may result in severely underpowered experiments and (ii) the cluster-robust variance estimator may be upward-biased when clusters are heterogeneous. We derive formulas for power, minimum detectable effects, and optimal cluster assignment probabilities. All our results apply to cluster experiments, a particular case of our framework. We set up a potential outcomes framework to interpret the OLS estimands as causal effects. We implement our methods in a large-scale experiment to estimate the direct and spillover effects of a communication campaign on property tax compliance. We find an increase in tax compliance among individuals directly targeted with our mailing, as well as compliance spillovers on untreated individuals in clusters with a high proportion of treated taxpayers.

Abstract Waiting times for mental health treatment have been increasing in many countries. Using administrative data on all inhabitants of the Netherlands and exploiting exogenous variation at the municipality level, I find that these waiting times have substantial repercussions on labor market outcomes for at least eight years after the start of treatment. A one-month (0.5 SD) increase in waiting time decreases the probability of employment by two percentage points. Vulnerable groups with lower educational attainment or a migration background are especially affected given that the impact of waiting time is larger for them and their average waiting time is longer.