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Meta-analysis of Empirical Estimates of Loss Aversion

Journal of Economic Literature 2024 62(2), 485-516 open access
Loss aversion is one of the most widely used concepts in behavioral economics. We conduct a large-scale, interdisciplinary meta-analysis to systematically accumulate knowledge from numerous empirical estimates of the loss aversion coefficient reported from 1992 to 2017. We examine 607 empirical estimates of loss aversion from 150 articles in economics, psychology, neuroscience, and several other disciplines. Our analysis indicates that the mean loss aversion coefficient is 1.955 with a 95 percent probability that the true value falls in the interval [1.820, 2.102]. We record several observable characteristics of the study designs. Few characteristics are substantially correlated with differences in the mean estimates.

Classification shifting using income-decreasing special items: measurement and valuation issues

Review of Accounting Studies 2024 29(3), 2871-2926 open access
Research suggests that the standard model used to detect opportunistic shifting of core expenses to special items is potentially biased. Such bias has been attributed to the use of accruals, including special item related accruals, as a control for the impact of performance on core earnings in this model. This paper provides an improved classification shifting model which both tests for such accruals-related bias and controls for other sources of error in the measurement of shifting. The paper also modifies conventional market rationality tests in accounting research to examine new dimensions of rationality in relation to measurement and valuation of shifting. The main empirical findings are as follows. First, the improved classification shifting model provides strong evidence of shifting and rejects the hypothesis that inclusion of accruals in the model causes bias. Second, estimates of shifted core expenses generated by the improved model exhibit forecasting properties of shifted earnings. Third, rationality test results are broadly consistent with rationality in relation to shifted core expenses but indicate possible partial (ir)rationality in relation to adjusted special items (i.e., special items excluding shifted core expenses). Further analysis of the latter findings, however, suggests they are more likely related to risk than irrationality. Overall, the paper contributes to improved measurement of shifting and highlights the importance of considering rational expectations when examining stock returns associated with shifting.

Audit firm tenure disclosure and nonprofessional investors' perceptions of auditor independence: The mitigating effect of partner rotation disclosure

Contemporary Accounting Research 2024 41(2), 1284-1310 open access
In 2017, the PCAOB began requiring audit firm tenure disclosure within the audit report for SEC registrant clients. Many commenters raised the concern that prominent disclosure of firm tenure would lead investors to inappropriately infer a negative relation between audit quality and long tenure. This is particularly troubling given that empirical evidence generally does not support this concern. In our first experiment, we predict and find that disclosing an audit firm's long tenure within the audit report increases investors' perceptions that the audit firm's independence was impaired while conducting the audit. However, we also identify an intervention that mitigates the effects of disclosing long tenure—an accompanying disclosure in the audit report of the firm's adherence to the SEC's mandatory partner rotation requirement. We find that such a disclosure moderates the effect of long tenure disclosure such that in the absence (presence) of a partner rotation disclosure, investors do (do not) perceive increased independence impairment when long firm tenure is disclosed. In a second experiment, we predict and find that long firm tenure disclosure reduces investors' preference to invest in an otherwise quantitatively optimal investment and that this relation is driven, in part, by perceptions of independence impairment. Again, this result is attenuated by partner rotation disclosure. Our results should be useful to regulators in understanding the effects of their disclosure mandate and to audit firms in understanding a practical way in which they might mitigate the implications of such effects.

The asymmetric mispricing information in analysts’ target prices

Review of Accounting Studies 2024 29(1), 889-915 open access
We study the mispricing information present in the target prices of US and international analysts. We hypothesize that asymmetry in the value-relevance of the information that managers supply to analysts, combined with asymmetry in the incentives facing analysts to curry favor with managers, leads to analyst-claimed undervaluation being more predictive of future stock returns than analyst-claimed overvaluation. Our empirical tests isolate analyst-claimed mispricing by first removing analysts’ estimates of the cost of equity from the returns implied by target prices and then separating analyst-claimed undervaluation from overvaluation. We find that target prices only predict future returns (at 16 cents to 18 cents on the dollar) when analysts claim undervaluation, not when they claim overvaluation. We also observe that analyst-claimed undervaluation predicts future returns more strongly after firms experience low returns and when macro-driven valuation uncertainty is low.

Do firms put their money where their mouth is? Sociopolitical claims and corporate political activity

Accounting, Organizations and Society 2024 113, 101510 open access
Firms increasingly respond to stakeholder demands by making public claims about their stances on polarizing issues, but at the same time their political activities may contradict their claims. We analyze the extent to which firms' sociopolitical claims and their political action committee contributions align. We develop a dictionary of claims related to diversity and environmental protection based on word combinations in firm communications and link firms' political contributions to candidate approval ratings provided by third-party advocacy groups. While firms generally donate mostly to lower-rated politicians (i.e., those with lower environmental and human rights ratings), firms making more sociopolitical claims donate relatively more to higher-rated politicians. The latter is consistent with political alignment but also has further limit: While firms with more claims donate more to higher-rated politicians, they donate no less to lower-rated politicians. Moreover, government subsidies, politicians’ power, and community pressure for diversity and environmental disclosures reduce political alignment.

Climate Change and Adaptation in Global Supply-Chain Networks

Review of Financial Studies 2024 37(6), 1729-1777 open access
This paper examines how physical climate exposure affects firm performance and global supply chains. We document that heat at supplier locations reduces the operating income of suppliers and their customers. Further, customers respond to perceived changes in suppliers’ exposure: when suppliers’ realized exposure exceeds ex ante expectations, customers are 7% more likely to terminate supplier relationships. Consistent with experience-based learning, this effect increases with signal strength and repetition and decreases with country-level climate adaptation. Subsequent replacement suppliers show a lower expected and realized but similar projected heat exposure. We find similar results for suppliers’ exposure to floods.

Leadership vacuum and corporate investment

Journal of Financial Stability 2024 74, 101302 open access
The vacuum caused by the absence of a political leader has a major economic impact. We manually collect data on the absence of a political leader in 247 Chinese cities between 2009 and 2019 and find that firms reduce their investment by an average of 2.326 % for each month that a political office remains vacant. This result holds even after subjecting the data to a series of endogeneity tests, robustness tests, and alternative explanations. We also demonstrate that the absence of a political leader reduces corporate investment through increased uncertainty of economic policy, reduced governmental efficiency, and disrupted political connections. Finally, our results show that this kind of absence has a more pronounced impact on younger firms, firms located in provinces with slower marketization, firms located in provinces with weak media development, non-state-owned enterprises, and firms located in regions under significant promotional pressure.

The Impact of Selection into the Labor Force on the Gender Wage Gap

Journal of Labor Economics 2024 42(4), 1093-1133 open access
Using Michigan Panel Study of Income Dynamics data, we study selection bias and the gender wage gap. Employing several methods, we find large declines in the total and unexplained gender gaps in wage offers between 1981 and 2015. Under our preferred selection correction method, the median total and unexplained gaps fell by 0.378 and 0.204 log points, respectively. These are larger declines than if we had not corrected for selection and simply measured convergence in observed wage gaps. However, substantial selectivity-corrected median gender wage gaps remain in 2015: 0.242 log points (total gap) and 0.206 log points (unexplained gap).

Unemployed Job Search across People and over Time: Evidence from Applied-For Jobs

Journal of Labor Economics 2024 42(4), 1175-1217 open access
Using data on applied-for jobs for the universe of Danish UI recipients, we examine variation in job search behavior both across individuals and over time during unemployment spells. We find large differences in the level of applied-for wages across individuals but over time all individuals adjust wages downward in the same way. The decline in applied-for wages over time is descriptively small but economically important in standard models of job search. We find similar results when examining variation in the non-wage characteristics of applied-for jobs and in the search methods used to find them. We discuss implications for theory.

Resolving a Paradox: Retail Trades Positively Predict Returns but Are Not Profitable

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2024 59(6), 2547-2581 open access
Retail order imbalance positively predicts returns, but on average retail investor trades lose money. Why? Order imbalance tests equal-weighted stocks, but retail purchases concentrate on attention-grabbing stocks that subsequently underperform. Long–short strategies based on extreme quintiles of retail order imbalance earn dismal annualized returns of −14.8% among stocks with heavy retail trading but earn 6.6% among other stocks. Our results reconcile the literatures on the performance of retail investors, the predictive content of retail order imbalance, and attention-induced trading and returns. Smaller retail trades concentrate more on attention-grabbing stocks and perform worse.