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Consensus credit ratings: a view from banks

Review of Accounting Studies 2024 29(3), 2391-2436 open access
While the production of credit ratings has long been limited mainly to rating agencies (CRAs), recent years have seen the growing popularity of consensus credit ratings crowdsourced from banks (i.e., bank ratings). We provide the first comprehensive examination of the properties and informativeness of bank ratings relative to CRA ratings. We find that bank ratings often deviate from CRA ratings, with over 60% of firm-months having different bank and CRA ratings. These deviations contain useful information. Bank ratings improve out-of-sample prediction of defaults and CRA rating revisions and explain the cross-section of credit spreads. However, bank ratings do not improve out-of-sample prediction of credit excess returns, indicating that current prices incorporate bank rating information. Overall our findings suggest that bank ratings are a useful supplement to traditional credit ratings.

Economic uncertainty and investor attention

Journal of Financial Economics 2023 149(2), 179-217 open access
This paper develops a multi-firm equilibrium model of information acquisition based on differences in firms’ characteristics. The model shows that heightened economic uncertainty amplifies stock price reactions to earnings announcements via increased investor attention, which varies by firm characteristics. Firms with higher systematic risk or more informative announcements attract more attention and exhibit stronger reactions to earnings announcements. Moreover, heightened investor attention caused by high economic uncertainty leads to a steeper CAPM relation and higher betas for announcing firms. Empirical analyses using firm-level attention measures and CAPM tests on high- versus low-attention days support the model’s predictions.