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The Value of Flexible Work: Evidence from Uber Drivers

Journal of Political Economy 2019 127(6), 2735-2794
Technology has facilitated new, nontraditional work arrangements, including the ride-sharing company Uber. Uber drivers provide rides anytime they choose. Using data on hourly earnings and driving, we document driver utilization of this real-time flexibility. We propose that the value of flexibility can be measured as deriving from time variation in the drivers' reservation wage. Measuring time variation in drivers' reservation wages allows us to estimate the surplus and labor supply implications of Uber relative to alternative, less-flexible work arrangements. Despite other drawbacks to the Uber arrangement, we estimate that Uber drivers earn more than twice the surplus they would in less-flexible arrangements.

Concept links and return momentum

Journal of Banking & Finance 2022 134, 106329 open access
Unlike traditional asset categories (e.g., industry classifications) that are generally defined clearly, some groups of stocks are tied to certain loosely defined “concepts” (e.g., e-commerce). When investors find it difficult to analyze ambiguous concept-oriented information, information diffuses slowly, creating “concept momentum”. Based on unique concept data in the Chinese stock market, this study constructs a concept-momentum strategy that involves buying stocks from past winning concepts and selling stocks from past losing concepts, which can generate pronounced abnormal returns. Neither risk factors, firm-level momentum, nor industry-level momentum can explain concept momentum. Furthermore, we find that both the underreaction and cross-stock lead-lag effect channels can cause slow information diffusion and drive concept momentum. Moreover, the concept momentum effect is stronger for relatively ambiguous concepts, for concepts that attract less investor attention, and following high-sentiment periods.

Do Hedge Fund Managers Understand Politics? Political Sensitivity and Investment Skill

Journal of Banking & Finance 2022 135, 106371 open access
We show that hedge fund managers who more actively and astutely adjust the political sensitivity of their portfolios, in line with the dynamic U.S. political landscape, improve their investment performance. Funds that tilt their portfolios toward market segments expected to perform better during the new political regime, specifically around U.S. Presidential elections, generate significantly higher alphas. Further, hedge fund families with greater responsiveness to political changes exhibit persistently superior performance and are more likely to survive. Hedge fund investors reward more responsive fund managers with greater inflows.

Executive Equity Risk-Taking Incentives and Firms’ Choice of Debt Structure

Journal of Banking & Finance 2021 133, 106274
We examine how executive equity risk-taking incentives affect firms’ choice of debt structure. Using a longitudinal sample of U.S. firms, we document that when executive compensation is more sensitive to stock volatility (i.e., has higher vega), firms reduce their reliance on bank debt financing. We utilize the passage of the Financial Accounting Standard (FAS) 123R option-expensing regulation as an exogenous shock to management option compensation to account for potential endogeneity. In cross-sectional analyses, we find that the documented effect of vega is amplified among firms with higher growth opportunities and more opaque financial information; we also find vega's effect is mitigated in firms with limited abilities to tap into public debt market. Supplemental analyses suggest that firms with higher vega face more stringent bank loan covenants. We conclude that, by encouraging risk-taking, higher vega reduces firms’ reliance on bank debt financing in order to avoid more stringent bank monitoring.

Political connection of financial intermediaries: Evidence from China's IPO market

Journal of Banking & Finance 2017 76, 15-31
Using a sample of Chinese Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) from 2006 to 2011, we document that politically connected (PC) underwriters increase the likelihood of clients’ IPO applications being approved by the Chinese Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC). We further show that PC underwriters charge premium underwriting fees. Consistent with the rent-seeking argument, we find that minority shareholders’ interests may be impaired as indicated by post-IPO underperformance. We do not detect significant differences in the underpricing of IPO deals underwritten by PC versus non-PC investment banks.

Risk, illiquidity or marketability: What matters for the discounts on private equity placements?

Journal of Banking & Finance 2015 57, 41-50 open access
Using a clean sample of private equity placements over the period of 1999 to 2012, we examine the determinants of the discounts on private placements. Classifying various determinants into three categories, namely risk, illiquidity, and marketability, we show that risk and marketability are significant determinants of the discount on private placements over the entire sample period. However, we identify a structural break in the relation between the discount on private placements with illiquidity and, to a lesser degree, marketability. Specifically, we find that liquidity is a more important determinant during the pre-2003 period, but marketability becomes a more important determinant during the post-2003 period. We attribute the structural break to substantial changes in market microstructure during our sample period. Lower transaction costs make illiquidity less of a concern for investors, whereas more active trading by investors calls for a higher discount for the lack of marketability.

Smartphone Data Reveal Neighborhood-Level Racial Disparities in Police Presence

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2025 107(6), 1734-1742 open access
Research on policing has focused on documented actions such as stops and arrests—less is known about patrols and presence. We map the neighborhood movement of nearly 10,000 officers across 21 of America’s largest cities using anonymized smartphone data. Police spend 0.36% more time in neighborhoods for each percentage point increase in Black residents. This neighborhood-level disparity persists after controlling for density, socioeconomic status, and crime-driven demand for policing, and may be lower in cities with more Black police supervisors (but not officers). Patterns of police presence statistically explain 57% of the higher arrest rate in more Black neighborhoods.

The Vagaries of the Sea: Evidence on the Real Effects of Money from Maritime Disasters in the Spanish Empire

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2024 106(5), 1220-1235 open access
We estimate the effect of money supply changes on the real economy by exploiting a recurring natural experiment: maritime disasters in the Spanish Empire (1531–1810) that resulted in the loss of substantial amounts of silver money. We find that negative money supply shocks caused Spanish real output to decline. A transmission channel analysis highlights slow price adjustments and credit frictions as mechanisms through which money supply changes affected the real economy. Especially large output declines occurred in textile manufacturing against the backdrop of a credit crunch that impaired merchants’ ability to supply their manufacturers with inputs.

Personal Bankruptcy Laws and Corporate Policies

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2020 55(7), 2397-2428
In this article we examine whether and how changes in personal bankruptcy laws, viewed as a shock to employees’ expected personal wealth, affect corporate policies. Following a reform in personal bankruptcy laws that limits individuals’ access to bankruptcy protection, firms more affected by this regulation reform increase labor costs, reduce investment, and engage in less risk taking. The effects are stronger when employees have more bargaining power. Furthermore, firms in industries characterized by high unemployment risk reduce leverage. These results support the view that firms choose more conservative policies to mitigate employees’ expected welfare losses.