Knowledge that Transforms

We use administrative data from Missouri to examine the sensitivity of earnings impact estimates for a job training program based on alternative nonexperimental methods. We consider regression adjustment, Mahalanobis distance matching, and various methods using propensity-score matching, examining both cross-sectional estimates and difference-in-difference estimates. Specification tests suggest that the difference-in-difference estimator may provide a better measure of program impact. We find that propensity-score matching is most effective, but the detailed implementation is not of critical importance. Our analyses demonstrate that existing data can be used to obtain useful estimates of program impact.

The World Health Organization estimates that 300 million clinical cases of malaria occur annually and observed that during the 80s and part of the 90s its incidence increased. In this paper, we explore the influence of refugees from civil wars on the incidence of malaria in the refugee-receiving countries. Using civil wars as an instrumental variable, we show that for each 1,000 refugees there are between 2,000 and 2,700 cases of malaria in the refugee-receiving country. On average 13% of the cases of malaria reported by the WHO are caused by forced migration as a consequence of civil wars.

The impact of candidate campaign spending on votes and abstention in multiparty elections is estimated from the specification of a structural model of voter behavior. This model accounts for the endogeneity of campaign spending as well as the heterogeneity in voter preferences. Empirical results are estimated from aggregate (actual) election data. The results demonstrate the importance of spending during the campaign period and voter heterogeneity with respect to these expenditures. The own- and cross-expenditure vote share elasticity estimates reveal that political campaign spending not only redistributes voters across parties but also decreases the size of the abstaining group of the electorate.

We assess competition among retail depository institutions in 1,884 rural markets. We estimate an equilibrium market structure model that endogenizes the operating decisions of three types of depository institutions: multimarket banks, single-market banks, and thrift institutions. Observed market structures and a game-theoretic specification of entry behavior identify the parameters of an underlying profit function. We find strong evidence that product differentiation generates additional profits for retail depository institutions. These profits help to maintain smaller banks and thrifts, even as larger banks expand their operations. Consumers have more options, as more institutions can profitably operate as a result of product differentiation.

This paper estimates the agglomeration benefits that arise from vertical linkages between firms in the context of Indonesia. The analysis is based on international trade and economic geography theory developed by Krugman and Venables (1995). We identify the agglomeration benefits off the spatial variation in firm level nominal wages. Unusually detailed intermediate input data allow us to more accurately capture spatial input/output linkages than in previous studies. We take account of the location of input suppliers to estimate cost linkages; and the location of demand from final consumers and other firms to estimate demand linkages. The results show that the externalities that arise from demand and cost linkages are quantitatively important and highly localized. An understanding of the extent and strength of spatial linkages is crucial in shaping policies that seek to influence regional development.

Many urban growth controls attempt to check sprawl by restricting allowable new housing densities. However, land may be undeveloped to preserve its real-option value. Real options in land markets arise from uncertainty as to the optimum use of a site. By limiting allowable development choices, growth controls can narrow real options and potentially accelerate investment. This paper examines the effect of price volatility, a generator of option value, on the timing of development after the imposition of an Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) around Seattle. While the net effect of the UGB is to lower the likelihood of new housing outside the boundary by between 28% and 39%, price volatility is no longer a deterrent to development.

We develop a test of precautionary behavior in the consumption decisions of rural agricultural households. Among surveyed households facing a median level of consumption risk, 10% of savings can be attributed to a precautionary motive, and this increases to 15% for households with consumption per capita below the poverty line. We next use distant lags of local rainfall shocks uncorrelated with current consumption growth to identify the size of migrant networks outside the village, and then present evidence that both poor and nonpoor households engage in less precautionary saving as the size of the village migrant network increases. Copyright by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

This paper examines the effect of foreign acquisition on wages and employment of different skill groups using panel data on Finnish establishments for 1988–2001. Exploiting the availability of a rich set of preacquisition controls, we use various regression and propensity-score matching methods. The results indicate that foreign acquisition has a positive effect on wages. The magnitude of this effect increases with the level of schooling of the workers. The wage increase is not immediate, but occurs within one to three years from the acquisition. The results also indicate that the acquisition decreases the share of highly educated workers in the plant's employment.

Using U.S. state-level data we show that agglomeration externalities influence the level of foreign-invested capital in a location. Our empirical model allows the separation of agglomeration effects from the rate of capital stock adjustment, two forces that previous research has conflated. We estimate an agglomeration elasticity of investment of 0.11 to 0.15 with respect to same-source-country investment, lower than previous estimates. We also investigate the influence of state policies and find that although general investment incentives do not affect the location of FDI, targeted policies such as unitary taxation and state foreign offices influence investment.

This paper examines the impact of the birth rate on economic growth by using a panel data set of 28 provinces in China over twenty years. Because China's one-child policy applied only to the Han Chinese but not to minorities, this unique affirmative policy allows us to use the proportion of minorities in a province as an instrumental variable to identify the causal effect of the birth rate on economic growth. We find that the birth rate has a negative impact on economic growth. The finding not only supports the view of Malthus, but also suggests that China's birth control policy is indeed growth enhancing.