Knowledge that Transforms

This paper develops a theoretical framework to study the critical role that politics play in shaping the spatial dimension of China's urbanization and the related welfare implications. Utilizing a large data set of residential land transactions matched with city leaders in 200 Chinese cities from 2000 through 2011, the empirical analysis finds that a 1 standard deviation increase in the career-incentive measure leads to 9 additional kilometers of outward expansion, a 23% increase relative to the sample average. It also finds some suggestive evidence pointing to the distortionary impacts of overly strong incentives of city leaders on spatial expansion, consistent with the theory.

This paper studies how monetary policy jointly affects asset prices and the real economy in the United States. I develop an estimator that uses high-frequency surprises as a proxy for the structural monetary policy shocks. This is achieved by integrating the surprises into a vector autoregressive model as an exogenous variable. I use current short-term rate surprises because these are least affected by an information effect. When allowing for time-varying model parameters, I find that compared to the response of output, the reaction of stock and house prices to monetary policy shocks was particularly low before the 2007–2009 financial crisis.

This paper proposes a method to estimate unconditional quantile treatment effects (QTEs) given one or more treatment variables, which may be discrete or continuous, even when it is necessary to condition on covariates. The estimator, generalized quantile regression (GQR), is developed in an instrumental variable framework for generality to permit estimation of unconditional QTEs for endogenous policy variables, but it is also applicable in the conditionally exogenous case. The framework includes simultaneous equations models with nonadditive disturbances, which are functions of both unobserved and observed factors. Quantile regression and instrumental variable quantile regression are special cases of GQR and available in this framework.

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates on March 3, 2020, in response to COVID-19. On March 5 and 6, I surveyed over 500 consumers about their concerns about COVID-19, awareness of the Fed's announcement, and macroeconomic expectations. Most consumers were concerned about effects of COVID-19 on the economy, their health, and their personal finances. About 38% were aware that the Fed had cut interest rates. Greater concern is associated with higher inflation expectations and more pessimistic unemployment expectations. I informed respondents about the Fed's announcement, which led some consumers to become more optimistic about unemployment and revise inflation expectations downward.

Using a representative online panel from the United States, we examine how individuals' macroeconomic expectations causally affect their personal economic prospects and their behavior. To exogenously vary respondents' expectations, we provide them with different professional forecasts about the likelihood of a recession. Respondents update their macroeconomic outlook in response to the forecasts, extrapolate to expectations about their personal economic circumstances, and adjust their consumption plans and stock purchases. Extrapolation to expectations about personal unemployment is driven by individuals with higher exposure to macroeconomic risk, consistent with macroeconomic models of imperfect information in which people are inattentive but understand how the economy works.

Job polarization refers to the shrinking share of employment in middle-skill, routine occupations experienced over the past 35 years. Jobless recoveries refers to the slow rebound in aggregate employment following recent recessions despite recoveries in aggregate output. We show how these two phenomena are related. First, essentially all employment loss in routine occupations occurs in economic downturns. Second, jobless recoveries in the aggregate can be accounted for by jobless recoveries in the routine occupations that are disappearing.

Previous article FreeJPE Turnaround Times, Previous Two YearsFull TextPDF Add to favoritesDownload CitationTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints Share onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditEmailQR Code SectionsMoreJPE Turnaround Times, Previous Two Years Outcome of 1st Round DecisionsMean Days to DecisionMedian Days to DecisionDecision Later than Six Months after Submission (as percentage of decisions within decision type)Desk Rejection49%1070%Reject with Reviews44%11810013%Revise7%16915938%Average time from original submission to acceptance (omitting time with author in revision) = 431 days View Table Image Previous article DetailsFiguresReferencesCited by Journal of Political Economy Volume 128, Number 7July 2020 Article DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1086/710174 Views: 288 © 2020 by The University of Chicago. All rights reserved. Crossref reports no articles citing this article.

Previous articleNext article FreeRecent RefereesPDFPDF PLUSFull Text Add to favoritesDownload CitationTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints Share onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditEmailQR Code SectionsMoreJournal of Political Economy acknowledges the assistance of:Ran AbramitzkyJerome AddaAchyuta AdhvaryuHassan AfrouziFrancesco AgostinelliMarina AgranovLuis AguiarGabriel AhlfeldtAnders AkermanFrancesco AmodioOla AnderssonIsaiah AndrewsJose ApesteguiaPeter ArcidiaconoCarolina ArteagaDavid AtkinChristopher AveryScott BakerTetyana BalyukMarco BassettoJess BenhabibAllen BergerTheodore BergstromMichael BestSourav BhattacharyaManudeep BhullerSaki BigioMark BilsJaroslav BorovičkaJonathan BrogaardAline ButikoferIvan CanayDavide CantoniAlexander CappelenHector ChadeKam ChanLaurens CherchyeJudith ChevalierGabe Chodorow-ReichJeffrey ClemensAllan Collard-WexlerCody CookSimon CowanJanet CurrieEszter CziborGordon DahlMelissa DellManasi DeshpandeFrancesc DilmeDavid DornJoseph DoyleAnna Dreber AlmenbergMehmet EkmekciGlenn EllisonBenjamin EnkeLarry EpsteinHanming FangHenry FarberErnst FehrShuaizhang FengJon H. FivaOlle FolkeAndrew FosterEric FrenchChao FuYana GallenPeter GanongJorge Luis GarciaAlvaro Garcia MarinChristopher GarmonPieter GautierXavier GiroudBart GolsteynFrancois GourioTal GrossRaymond GuiterasKareem HaggagBen HandelBenjamin HansenNikolaj HarmonDavid HémousJonas HjortScott HolladayCosmin IlutNir JaimovichPamela JakielaGregor JaroschDavid Jimenez-GomezCharles JonesBoyan JovanovicBruno JullienAdam KaporKristian Bernt KarlsonMaximilian KasyAyumu KikkawaPhilipp KircherAndras KissPatrick KlineAsen KochovRalph KoijenAnton KolotilinAnton KorinekAndreas KotsadamAmanda KowalskiArvind KrishnamurthyZoe KuehnMoritz KuhnPablo KurlatNicola LaceteraRasmus LandersoeKevin LangFabian LangeJacob LaRiviereMichael LeeDavid LeeJosh LernerJustin LeungEdwin LeuvenSteven LevittShengwu LiIlse LindenlaubXiaodong LiuAlessandro LizzeriLee LockwoodKatrine LokenJingfeng LuJay LuMargaux LufladeErzo LuttmerGiovanni MastrobuoniMaurizio MazzoccoAtif MianKevin MilliganJosepa (Pepita) Miquel-FlorensaAhmed MobarakSidharth MoktanBenny MoldovanuCorina MommaertsMelanie MortenChristian MoserPetra MoserJack MountjoyRebecca MyersonJesse NaidooDavid NeumarkYew-Kwang NgAntonella NoccoScott OrrMatthew OsborneAdam OsmanAmanda PallaisJessica PanCecilia ParlatoreNicola PavaniniHarry PeiPaolo Giovanni PiacquadioJustin PierceRodrigo PintoRoland RathelotImke ReimersPascual RestrepoJames RobertsGuillaume RocheteauRichard RosenMark RosenzweigEsteban Rossi-HansbergMaya Rossin-SlaterJohn RustFelipe SaffieHeather SarsonsKlaus SchmidtMatthew SerflingCarl ShapiroAjay ShenoyHenrik SigstadChristopher SimsAndrzej SkrzypaczDag Einar SommervollIsaac SorkinMichelle SovinskyCharles SprengerStefanie StantchevaMeredith StartzMelvin StephensDavid StrombergAshley SwansonHuan TangDmitry TaubinskyVeikko ThieleDanna ThomasPeter ThompsonPetra ToddMirco ToninAlexander TorgovitskyFabrice TourreChristopher UdryArthur van BenthemStijn Van NieuwerburghJohn Van ReenenDimitri VayanosJulian Vedeler JohnsenFrederic VermeulenRajiv VohraNico VoigtlaenderMatthew WeinbergMarek WeretkaBen WilliamsChristian WolfAsher WolinskyArlene WongRandall WrightYanhui WuErte XiaoYuichi YamamotoMotohiro YogoNoam YuchtmanGiulia ZacchiaBasit ZafarSeth ZimmermanUlf Zoelitz Previous articleNext article DetailsFiguresReferencesCited by Journal of Political Economy Volume 128, Number 2February 2020 Article DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1086/708481 © 2020 by The University of Chicago. All rights reserved.PDF download Crossref reports no articles citing this article.

Previous articleNext article FreeRecent RefereesFull TextPDF Add to favoritesDownload CitationTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints Share onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditEmailQR Code SectionsMoreJournal of Political Economy acknowledges the assistance of:Brant AbbottEliot AbramsRodrigo AdaoDavid AgrawalHeitor AlmeidaIsaiah AndrewsPeter ArcidiaconoDavid AtkinPierre AzoulayMichael BarnettMatthew BaronMarco BassettoChristiane BaumeisterChristian BayerDaniel BenjaminAlessandro BonattiStephane BonhommeTimo BoppartJordi BrandtsPeter BuisseretLuigi ButeraJuan CarrilloGabriel CarrollYuyu ChenLaurens CherchyeGabe Chodorow-ReichKaren ClayPhilip CookKerem CosarAnna CostelloNatalie CoxZoe CullenJakša CvitanićJoel DavidGiacomo De GiorgiFrancesca De NicolaGustavo De SouzaDaniela Del BocaBanu DemirEllora DerenoncourtManasi DeshpandeSebastian Di TellaAnna Dreber AlmenbergPierre DuboisPhilipp EisenhauerKfir EliazRobert EvansKirill EvdokimovHanming FangJames FeigenbaumShuaizhang FengJoseph FerrieTeresa FortAlexander FrankelGuillaume FrechetteChao FuAlberto GalassoDouglas GaleGeorge GeorgiadisAlbrecht GlitzBart GolsteynPhilip GravesDaniel GreenwaldYingni GuoMartin HackmannMarina HalacWilliam HanlonGlenn HarrisonJoop HartogOri HeffetzBart HobijnPär HolmbergRichard HornbeckDaniel HungermanErik HurstB. Kelsey JackTerrance JalbertPriit JeenasLoukas KarabarbounisFatih KarahanNeeraj KaushalNicolas KleinNarayana KocherlakotaNenad KosFrancis KramarzDavid LagakosKurt LavettiArthur LewbelAttila LindnerJason LindoChen LiuQingmin LiuKatrine LokenJens LudwigYao LuoMatthew MastenRaymond Mataloni, Jr.Filip MatejkaArnaud MaurelSteven MelloKonrad MenzelKarel MertensVirgiliu MidriganJosepa (Pepita) Miquel-FlorensaJoel MokyrJack MountjoyXiaosheng MuDaniel MurphyKyle MyersDavid NeumarkPaul NiehausPeter NormanRyan OpreaLuca OpromollaMarco OttavianiPablo OttonelloElias PapaioannouMathieu ParentiYoungmin ParkGert PeersmanHarry PeiKrishna PendakurSantiago PerezVincent PonsRichard PrisinzanoVincenzo QuadriniHeikki RantakariRonny RazinMichael RiordanWilliam RogersonDan-Olof RoothJesse RothsteinSutanuka RoyCian RuaneJuan Rubio-RamirezRaffaele SaggioTobias SalzMichael SattingerFlorian ScheuerJoshua SchwartzsteinCarmit SegalBradley ShapiroYotam Shem-TovItai SherClemens SialmHolger SiegAloysius SiowAndrzej SkrzypaczAlex SmolinMikkel SølvstenIsaac SorkinJörg SpenkuchFrancesco SquintaniJenna StearnsLudwig StraubDavid StrombergBruno StruloviciShinsuke TanakaJean TiroleGeorge TolleyTrevor TombeFabrice TourrePravin TrivediNick TsivanidisHelene TuronJohn Van ReenenFrederic VermeulenEwout VerriestSimon WeberMatthew WeinbergThomas WinberryAbigail WozniakKai Hao YangJunjian YiWes YinBasit ZafarYves ZenouOwen ZidarSeth ZimmermanUlf Zoelitz Previous articleNext article DetailsFiguresReferencesCited by Journal of Political Economy Volume 128, Number 9September 2020 Article DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1086/711484 Views: 187 © 2020 by The University of Chicago. All rights reserved. Crossref reports no articles citing this article.