We study capital structure choices that entrepreneurs make in their firms' initial year of operation, using restricted-access data from the Kauffman Firm Survey. Firms in our data rely heavily on external debt sources, such as bank financing, and less extensively on friends-and-family-based funding sources. Many startups receive debt financed through the personal balance sheets of the entrepreneur, effectively resulting in the entrepreneur holding levered equity claims in their startups. This fact is robust to numerous controls, including credit quality. The reliance on external debt underscores the importance of credit markets for the success of nascent business activity.

In light of the growing numbers of women of color in the entrepreneurial sector in the United States, employing public-use microdata from the 2007 Survey of Business Owners, this study finds that new firms owned by black and Hispanic women were more likely to cease operations than those owned by their male counterparts or by non-Hispanic whites, even when controlling for other owner- and firm-level characteristics and labor market conditions. These differences occurred despite the existence of public programs designed to help female and minority entrepreneurs, raising the question of efficiency of the current policy infrastructure in the United States.

This article develops a dynamic asset pricing model with persistent heterogeneous beliefs. The model features competitive traders who receive idiosyncratic signals about an underlying fundamentals process. We adapt Futia's (1981) frequency domain methods to derive conditions on the fundamentals that guarantee non-invertibility of the mapping between observed market data and the underlying shocks to agents' information sets. When these conditions are satisfied, agents remain asymmetrically informed in equilibrium and must ‘forecast the forecasts of others’. An econometrician, who incorrectly imposes a homogeneous beliefs equilibrium, will find that the asset price displays violations of variance bounds, predictability of excess returns, and rejections of cross-equation restrictions.

We examine the determinants and consequences of broker-hosted investor conferences. We find the number of brokers hosting a firm at conferences is positively related to institutional ownership and intangible assets, consistent with greater client demand for management access among hard-to-value firms. Younger firms and those that issue equity in the future attend more conferences, suggesting firms view conference participation as a means to enhance investor recognition. Hosting brokers are rewarded with increased commission revenue. Commission share increases by 0.61% during the conference week, with larger increases following more informative conference disclosures. Firms also benefit from conference participation. In the subsequent year, conference firms are followed by an additional 0.34 analysts, undergo a 6% reduction in bid-ask spread, and experience a 0.03 increase in Tobin׳s q.

We exploit exogenous variation in the scheduling of gubernatorial elections to study the timing of bank failure in the US. Using hazard analysis, we show that bank failure is about 45% less likely in the year leading up to an election. Political control (i.e., lack of competition) can explain all of this average election year fall in the hazard rate. In particular, we show that the reduction in hazard rate doubles in magnitude for banks operating in states where the governor has simultaneous control of the upper and lower houses of the state legislature (i.e., complete control) heading into an election.

Differences in firm-level productivity explain international activities of non-financial firms quite well. We test whether differences in bank productivity determine international activities of banks. Based on a dataset that allows tracking banks across countries and across different modes of foreign entry, we model the ordered probability of maintaining a commercial presence abroad and the volume of banks’ international assets empirically. Our research has three main findings. First, more productive banks are more likely to enter foreign markets in increasingly complex modes. Second, more productive banks also hold larger volumes of foreign assets. Third, higher risk aversion renders entry less likely, but it increases the volume of foreign activities conditional upon entry.

We examine the outside director selection process using unique data on appointments of academic directors. Overall, we find that academic directors tend to be appointed by small- and mid-cap firms expanding their boards. However, we find important differences in both the factors influencing academic appointments and the market's reaction when allowing for firm, board, and director heterogeneities. Academics in science, medicine and engineering appear to be appointed for their expertise, and the market reacts favorably. Academic administrators appear to be appointed for their networks, and the market reacts favorably when the administrator is affiliated with a business school but negatively when the administrator is not within close geographic proximity. Business professors appear to be appointed for general expertise and reputation, but we find little evidence of any significant market reaction. The results in this paper highlight the importance of recognizing heterogeneity in understanding the director selection process and the role of outside directors.

We study the prevalence of the higher order risk attitudes of prudence and temperance in an experiment with a large demographically representative sample of participants. Under expected utility, prudence and temperance are defined by a convex first, and concave second, derivative of the utility function, and have direct implications for saving behaviour and portfolio choice. In the experiment, participants make pairwise choices that distinguish prudent from imprudent, and temperate from intemperate, behaviour. We correlate individuals' risk aversion, prudence, and temperance levels to their demographic profiles and their financial decisions outside the experiment. We observe that the majority of individuals' decisions are consistent with risk aversion, prudence, and temperance. Prudence is positively correlated with saving, as predicted by precautionary saving theory. Temperance is negatively correlated with the riskiness of portfolio choices.

Entrusting the power to punish to a central authority is a hallmark of civilization, yet informal or horizontal sanctions have attracted more attention of late. We study experimentally a collective action dilemma and test whether subjects choose a formal sanction scheme that costs less than the surplus it makes possible, as predicted by standard economic theory, or instead opt for the use of informal sanctions (IS) or no sanctions. Our subjects choose, and succeed in using, IS surprisingly often, their voting decisions being responsive to the cost of formal sanctions. Adoption by voting enhances the efficiency of both IS and non-deterrent formal sanctions. Results are qualitatively confirmed under several permutations of the experimental design.

We report laboratory experiments that use new, visually oriented software to explore the dynamics of 3×3 games with intransitive best responses. Each moment, each player is matched against the entire population, here 8 human subjects. A “heat map” offers instantaneous feedback on current profit opportunities. In the continuous slow adjustment treatment, we see distinct cycles in the population mix. The cycle amplitude, frequency and direction are consistent with the standard learning models. Cycles are more erratic and higher frequency in the instantaneous adjustment treatment. Control treatments (using simultaneous matching in discrete time) replicate previous results that exhibit weak or no cycles. Average play is approximated fairly well by Nash equilibrium, and an alternative point prediction, “TASP” (Time Average of the Shapley Polygon), captures some regularities that Nash equilibrium misses.