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Share pledges and margin call pressure

Journal of Corporate Finance 2018 52, 96-117
It is common practice worldwide for corporate insiders to put up stock as collateral for personal loans. We highlight a potential problem in such pledging. When controlling shareholders face a margin call threat if stock prices fall below the required level for a loan, they have an incentive to use corporate resources for their private benefit. We develop and test a margin call hypothesis that controlling shareholders may initiate share repurchases to fend off potential margin calls associated with pledged stocks in order to maintain their control rights. Investors seem to recognize such behavior and discount the potential benefits of repurchase programs. However, share pledges are not reliably related to repurchases when control rights are not a concern. We further show that regulatory restrictions of control rights on pledging effectively reduce the likelihood of firms' repurchasing. Overall, our results shed light on the impact of share pledges on corporate decisions.

Can financial innovation succeed by catering to behavioral preferences? Evidence from a callable options market

Journal of Financial Economics 2018 128(1), 38-65
We examine the notion that financial products which cater to investors’ behavioral biases can yield high trading activity and thus be profitable for issuers. Our setting considers options with a callback feature, namely, callable bull/bear contracts (CBBCs). Such contracts have high skewness when close to callback and thus appeal to cumulative prospect theory preferences. CBBCs with high skewness earn negative average returns, and issuers’ gross profits vary positively with CBBC skewness. Over the 2009–2014 period, issuers earn gross profits of about $1.67 billion by trading CBBCs on the Hang Seng Index. These findings highlight the role of behavioral finance in financial innovation.

Deposit insurance, bank exit, and spillover effects

Journal of Banking & Finance 2018 96, 268-276
This study resolves a puzzle in the banking literature: why do an increasing number of countries adopt a deposit insurance scheme (DIS) while prior studies have shown that it increases the likelihood of banking crises? Using a dataset of 64 countries over the period 1970–2009, our study shows that the adoption of a DIS is associated with a 2.0–4.7 percentage points higher likelihood of banking crises (the “direct effect”), while it is associated with a 10.1–11.1 percentage points lower likelihood of non-banking financial crises (the “spillover effect”). Since the “spillover effect” is larger than the “direct effect”, a DIS actually increases overall financial stability. Additionally, we analyze the mechanisms through which a DIS affects financial crises. First, we highlight the existence of the implicit guarantee and examine its interaction with an explicit DIS. Second, we investigate the substitution effect between banking crises and non-banking crises.

Investment, Tobin’s q, and interest rates

Journal of Financial Economics 2018 130(3), 620-640
We study the impact of stochastic interest rates and capital illiquidity on investment and firm value by incorporating a widely used arbitrage-free term structure model of interest rates into a standard q theoretic framework. Our generalized q model informs us to use corporate credit-risk information to predict investments when empirical measurement issues of Tobin’s average q are significant (e.g., equity is much more likely to be mis-priced than debt), as in Philippon (2009). We find, consistent with our theory, that credit spreads and bond q have significant predictive powers on micro-level and aggregate investments corroborating the recent empirical work of Gilchrist and Zakrajšek (2012). We also show that the quantitative effects of the stochastic interest rates and capital illiquidity on investment, Tobin’s average q, the duration and user cost of capital, and the value of growth opportunities are substantial. These findings are particularly important in today’s low interest rate environment.

The consequences of shifting the IPO offer pricing power from securities regulators to market participants in weak institutional environments: Evidence from China

Journal of Corporate Finance 2018 50, 349-370 open access
We examine the consequences of shifting the IPO offer pricing power from securities regulators to market participants in a representative weak investor protection country, China. We show IPO offer prices relative to reported earnings are less depressed when determined by market participants than by securities regulators. IPO firms are also less likely to select a low quality auditor or inflate the pre-IPO earnings when IPO offer prices are determined by market participants. However, we find no evidence that IPO offerings are more likely to be overpriced when offer prices are determined by market participants. Furthermore, IPO firms' financial reporting choices made at the time of the IPO have a long lasting impact on the firms' subsequent financial reporting quality. Overall, our results contribute to the ongoing debate on the appropriate roles of securities regulators versus market forces in protecting public investors in markets with weak institutional environments.

Unobserved Heterogeneity in Matching Games

Journal of Political Economy 2018 126(4), 1339-1373
Agents in two-sided matching games vary in characteristics that are unobservable in typical data on matching markets. We investigate the identification of the distribution of unobserved characteristics using data on who matches with whom. In full generality, we consider many-to-many matching and matching with trades. The distribution of match-specific unobservables cannot be fully recovered without information on unmatched agents, but the distribution of a combination of unobservables, which we call unobserved complementarities, can be identified. Using data on unmatched agents restores identification.

Pay me now (and later): Pension benefit manipulation before plan freezes and executive retirement

Journal of Financial Economics 2018 127(1), 152-173
Large US firms modify top executives’ compensation before pension-related events. Top executives receive one-time increases in pensionable earnings through higher annual bonuses one year before a plan freeze and one year before retirement. Firms also boost pension payouts by lowering plan discount rates when top executives are eligible to retire with lump-sum benefit distributions. Increases in executive pensions do not appear to be an attempt to improve managerial effort or retention and are more likely to occur at firms with poor corporate governance. These findings suggest that in some circumstances managers are able to extract rents through their pension plans.

Very Simple Markov-Perfect Industry Dynamics: Theory

Econometrica 2018 86(2), 721-735 open access
This paper develops a simple model of firm entry, competition, and exit in oligopolistic markets. It features toughness of competition, sunk entry costs, and market-level demand and cost shocks, but assumes that firms' expected payoffs are identical when entry and survival decisions are made. We prove that this model has an essentially unique symmetric Markov-perfect equilibrium, and we provide an algorithm for its computation. Because this algorithm only requires finding the fixed points of a finite sequence of contraction mappings, it is guaranteed to converge quickly.