Prior research has documented positive abnormal stock returns around the announcements of repurchase programs; several explanations of these returns have been suggested, including signaling, free cash flow, and wealth redistributions. This study analyzes abnormal stock, bond, and firm returns around repurchase announcements to examine these hypotheses. We find evidence consistent with both signaling and wealth redistribution. The loss to bondholders is a function of the size of the repurchase, and the risk of the firm's debt. We also find that bond ratings are twice as likely to be downgraded as upgraded after the announcement of the repurchase program.

Starting from an example of the Allies' decision to feint at Calais and attack Normandy on D-Day, this paper models misrepresentation of intentions to competitors or enemies. Allowing for the possibility of bounded strategic rationality and rational players' responses to it yields a sensible account of lying via costless, noiseless messages. In some leading cases, the model has generically unique pure-strategy sequential equilibria, in which rational players exploit boundedly rational players, but are not themselves fooled. In others, the model has generically essentially unique mixed-strategy sequential equilibria, in which rational players' strategies protect all players from exploitation.

The standard analysis of price controls assumes that goods are efficiently allocated, even when there are shortages. But if shortages mean that goods are randomly allocated across the consumers that want them, the welfare costs from misallocation may be greater than the undersupply costs. We develop a framework to empirically test for misallocation. The methodology compares consumption patterns for demographic subgroups in rent-controlled and free-market places. We find that in New York City, which is rent-controlled, an economically and statistically significant fraction of apartments appears to be misallocated across demographic subgroups.

Empirical research over the last decade has uncovered predictive relationships between the slope of the yield curve and subsequent real activity and inflation. Some of these relationships are highly significant, but their theoretical motivations suggest that they may not be stable over time. We use recent econometric techniques for break testing to examine whether the empirical relationships are in fact stable. We consider continuous models, which predict either economic growth or inflation, and binary models, which predict either recessions or inflationary pressure. In each case, we draw on evidence from Germany and the United States. Models that predict real activity are somewhat more stable than those that predict inflation, and binary models are more stable than continuous models. The model that predicts recessions is stable over our full sample period in both Germany and the United States.

This study examines the effect of an increase in product quality information to consumers on firms' choices of product quality. In 1998 Los Angeles County introduced hygiene quality grade cards to be displayed in restaurant windows. We show that the grade cards cause (i) restaurant health inspection scores to increase, (ii) consumer demand to become sensitive to changes in restaurants' hygiene quality, and (iii) the number of foodborne illness hospitalizations to decrease. We also provide evidence that this improvement in health outcomes is not fully explained by consumers substituting from poor hygiene restaurants to good hygiene restaurants. These results imply that the grade cards cause restaurants to make hygiene quality improvements.

This paper provides new evidence on the substitutability between private and pension wealth by exploiting the Italian pension reform of 1992. We use a difference-in-difference estimator that exploits the differential effects of the reform on individuals belonging to several year-of-birth cohorts and different occupational groups. We find convincing evidence that saving rates increase as a result of a reduction in pension wealth. By allowing for the possibility that substitutability changes with age, we find that substitutability is particularly high (and precisely estimated) for workers between 35 and 45.

We examine the costs and benefits of the global integration of initial public offering (IPO) markets associated with the diffusion of U.S. underwriting methods in the 1990s. Bookbuilding is becoming increasingly popular outside the United States and typically costs twice as much as a fixed-price offer. However, on its own, bookbuilding only leads to lower underpricing when conducted by U.S. banks and/or targeted at U.S. investors. For most issuers, the gains associated with lower underpricing outweighed the additional costs associated with hiring U.S. banks or marketing in the United States. This suggests a quality/price trade-off contrasting with the findings of Chen and Ritter, particularly since non-U.S. issuers raising US$20 million–US$80 million also typically pay a 7% spread when U.S. banks and investors are involved.

Cointegrated bivariate nonstationary time series are considered in a fractional context, without allowance for deterministic trends. Both the observable series and the cointegrating error can be fractional processes. The familiar situation in which the respective integration orders are 1 and 0 is nested, but these values have typically been assumed known. We allow one or more of them to be unknown real values, in which case Robinson and Marinucci (2001, 2003) have justified least squares estimates of the cointegrating vector, as well as narrow-band frequency-domain estimates, which may be less biased. While consistent, these estimates do not always have optimal convergence rates, and they have nonstandard limit distributional behavior. We consider estimates formulated in the frequency domain, that consequently allow for a wide variety of (parametric) autocorrelation in the short memory input series, as well as time-domain estimates based on autoregressive transformation. Both can be interpreted as approximating generalized least squares and Gaussian maximum likelihood estimates. The estimates share the same limiting distribution, having mixed normal asymptotics (yielding Wald test statistics with χ2 null limit distributions), irrespective of whether the integration orders are known or unknown, subject in the latter case to their estimation with adequate rates of convergence. The parameters describing the short memory stationary input series are √n-consistently estimable, but the assumptions imposed on these series are much more general than ones of autoregressive moving average type. A Monte Carlo study of finite-sample performance is included.

Shareholder rights vary across firms. Using the incidence of 24 governance rules, we construct a “Governance Index” to proxy for the level of shareholder rights at about 1500 large firms during the 1990s. An investment strategy that bought firms in the lowest decile of the index (strongest rights) and sold firms in the highest decile of the index (weakest rights) would have earned abnormal returns of 8.5 percent per year during the sample period. We find that firms with stronger shareholder rights had higher firm value, higher profits, higher sales growth, lower capital expenditures, and made fewer corporate acquisitions.