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Need for Speed? Exchange Latency and Liquidity

Review of Financial Studies 2017 30(4), 1188-1228 open access
A faster exchange does not necessarily improve liquidity. On the one hand, speed enables a high-frequency market maker (HFM) to update quotes faster on incoming news. This reduces payoff risk and thus lowers the competitive bid-ask spread. On the other hand, HFM price quotes are more likely to meet speculative high-frequency bandits, and thus are less likely to meet liquidity traders. This raises the spread. The net effect of exchange speed depends on a security's news-to-liquidity-trader ratio.

The Effect of Regulatory Harmonization on Cross-Border Labor Migration: Evidence from the Accounting Profession

Journal of Accounting Research 2017 55(1), 35-78
The paper examines whether international regulatory harmonization increases cross-border labor migration. To study this question, we analyze European Union initiatives that harmonized accounting and auditing standards. Regulatory harmonization should reduce economic mobility barriers, essentially making it easier for accounting professionals to move across countries. Our research design compares the cross-border migration of accounting professionals relative to tightly matched other professionals before and after regulatory harmonization. We find that international labor migration in the accounting profession increases significantly relative to other professions. We provide evidence that this effect is due to harmonization, rather than increases in the demand for accounting services during the implementation of the rule changes. The findings illustrate that diversity in rules constitutes an economic barrier to cross-border labor mobility and, more specifically, that accounting harmonization can have a meaningful effect on cross-border migration.

A Lottery-Demand-Based Explanation of the Beta Anomaly

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2017 52(6), 2369-2397
The low (high) abnormal returns of stocks with high (low) beta, which we refer to as the beta anomaly, is one of the most persistent anomalies in empirical asset pricing research. This article demonstrates that investors’ demand for lottery-like stocks is an important driver of the beta anomaly. The beta anomaly is no longer detected when beta-sorted portfolios are neutralized to lottery demand, regression specifications control for lottery demand, or factor models include a lottery demand factor. The beta anomaly is concentrated in stocks with low levels of institutional ownership and it exists only when the price impact of lottery demand is concentrated in high-beta stocks.

Foldability of a Natural De Novo Evolved Protein

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2017 25(11), 1687-1696.e4
The de novo evolution of protein-coding genes from noncoding DNA is emerging as a source of molecular innovation in biology. Studies of random sequence libraries, however, suggest that young de novo proteins will not fold into compact, specific structures typical of native globular proteins. Here we show that Bsc4, a functional, natural de novo protein encoded by a gene that evolved recently from noncoding DNA in the yeast S. cerevisiae, folds to a partially specific three-dimensional structure. Bsc4 forms soluble, compact oligomers with high β sheet content and a hydrophobic core, and undergoes cooperative, reversible denaturation. Bsc4 lacks a specific quaternary state, however, existing instead as a continuous distribution of oligomer sizes, and binds dyes indicative of amyloid oligomers or molten globules. The combination of native-like and non-native-like properties suggests a rudimentary fold that could potentially act as a functional intermediate in the emergence of new folded proteins de novo.

Improving Experienced Auditors’ Detection of Deception in CEO Narratives

Journal of Accounting Research 2017 55(5), 1137-1166
We experimentally study the deception detection capabilities of experienced auditors, using CEO narratives from earnings conference calls as case materials. We randomly assign narratives of fraud and nonfraud companies to auditors as well as the presence versus absence of an instruction explaining that cognitive dissonance in speech is helpful for detecting deception. We predict this instruction will weaken auditors’ learned tendency to overlook fraud cues. We find that auditors’ deception judgments are less accurate for fraud companies than for nonfraud companies, unless they receive this instruction. We also find that instructed auditors more extensively describe red flags for fraud companies and more accurately identify specific sentences in narratives that pertain to underlying frauds. These findings indicate that instructing experienced auditors to be alert for cognitive dissonance in CEO narratives can activate deception detection capabilities.

CEO Turnovers and Disruptions in Customer–Supplier Relationships

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2017 52(6), 2565-2610
Events that disrupt customer–supplier relationships pose a source of risk for suppliers that depend on a customer for a large portion of their revenues. We identify the replacement of a customer’s chief executive officer (CEO) as a disruptive event that results in suppliers losing substantial sales. These losses are greater when an incumbent customer CEO is more likely to be entrenched and stem largely from the successor divesting assets. Finally, we document that losses in sales following a customer CEO turnover lead to declines in a supplier’s financial performance and that suppliers experience negative abnormal stock returns to announcements of customer CEO departures.

Seasonal Asset Allocation: Evidence from Mutual Fund Flows

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2017 52(1), 71-109 open access
We analyze the flow of money between mutual fund categories, finding strong evidence of seasonality in investor risk aversion. Aggregate investor flow data reveal an investor preference for safe mutual funds in autumn and risky funds in spring. During September alone, outflows from equity funds average $13 billion, controlling for previously documented flow determinants (e.g., capital-gains overhang). This movement of large amounts of money between fund categories is correlated with seasonality in investor risk aversion, consistent with investors preferring safer (riskier) investments in autumn (spring). We find consistent evidence in Canada and also in Australia, where seasons are offset by 6 months.

Is economic uncertainty priced in the cross-section of stock returns?

Journal of Financial Economics 2017 126(3), 471-489
We investigate the role of economic uncertainty in the cross-sectional pricing of individual stocks and equity portfolios. We estimate stock exposure to an economic uncertainty index and show that stocks in the lowest uncertainty beta decile generate 6% more annualized risk-adjusted return compared to stocks in the highest uncertainty beta decile. We find that the uncertainty premium is driven by the outperformance (underperformance) by stocks with negative (positive) uncertainty beta. Our results indicate that uncertainty-averse investors demand extra compensation to hold stocks with negative uncertainty beta and they are willing to pay high prices for stocks with positive uncertainty beta.

Shades of darkness: A pecking order of trading venues

Journal of Financial Economics 2017 124(3), 503-534 open access
We characterize the dynamic fragmentation of U.S. equity markets using a unique data set that disaggregates dark transactions by venue types. The “pecking order” hypothesis of trading venues states that investors “sort” various venue types, putting low-cost-low-immediacy venues on top and high-cost-high-immediacy venues at the bottom. Hence, midpoint dark pools on top, non-midpoint dark pools in the middle, and lit markets at the bottom. As predicted, following VIX shocks, macroeconomic news, and firms’ earnings surprises, changes in venue market shares become progressively more positive (or less negative) down the pecking order. We further document heterogeneity across dark venue types and stock size groups.