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CEO optimism and incentive compensation

Journal of Financial Economics 2014 114(2), 366-404
I study the effect of chief executive officer (CEO) optimism on CEO compensation. Using data on compensation in US firms, I provide evidence that CEOs whose option exercise behavior and earnings forecasts are indicative of optimistic beliefs receive smaller stock option grants, fewer bonus payments, and less total compensation than their peers. These findings add to our understanding of the interplay between managerial biases and remuneration and show how sophisticated principals can take advantage of optimistic agents by appropriately adjusting their compensation contracts.

The Downstream Impact of Upstream Tariffs: Evidence from Investment Decisions in Supply Chains

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2024 59(6), 2695-2732 open access
We study how U.S. manufacturing firms’ investment responds to tariff reductions in supplier industries. Our estimates, based on tariff reductions following multinational trade agreements, suggest that a hypothetical 10% reduction of all upstream tariffs would increase downstream investment by 4% to 6%. This estimate is not explained by decreasing uncertainty and stems from tariff reductions for homogeneous and low-R&D inputs, consistent with the investment response resulting from cost reductions rather than superior foreign technology embodied in imported inputs. Evidence from an instrumental variable estimation using the sudden increase in Chinese import penetration suggests that import competition also increases downstream investment.

Do Firms Respond to Peer Disclosures? Evidence from Disclosures of Clinical Trial Results

The Accounting Review 2023 98(3), 71-108
Using data on the registration of clinical trials and the disclosure of trial results, we examine how firms respond to peer disclosures. We find that firms are less likely to disclose their own trial results if the results of a larger number of closely related trials are disclosed by their peers. This relation is stronger if the firms face higher competition (as measured by the number of competing trials). It is weaker if the firms are further along in their research than the peers (as measured by the trials’ phase) and if the peers’ disclosures convey more negative news (as measured by the firms’ stock price reaction). We also find that firms are more likely to abandon ongoing trials if a larger number of peers disclose the results of closely related trials. Additional tests suggest that this real effects channel does not drive the impact on the firms’ disclosure decisions. Data Availability: Data are available from the public sources cited in the text.

CAPM-Based Company (Mis)valuations

Review of Financial Studies 2021 34(1), 1-66 open access
There is a discrepancy between CAPM-implied and realized returns. Using the CAPM in capital budgeting—as recommended in textbooks—should thus have real effects. For instance, low beta projects should be valued more by CAPM users than by the market. We test this hypothesis using M&A data and show that bids for low-beta private targets entail lower bidder returns. We provide further support by testing several ancillary predictions. Our analyses suggest that using the CAPM when valuing targets leads to valuation errors (relative to the market’s view) corresponding on average to 12% to 33% of the deal values.

Accounting Quality and Debt Concentration

The Accounting Review 2021 96(1), 377-400
We examine the relation between accounting quality and debt concentration in corporate capital structures (i.e., firms' tendency to rely predominantly on only a few types of debt). Motivated by theoretical and empirical research that supports a strong link between debt concentration and creditors' coordination costs and the importance of accounting quality in reducing these costs, we hypothesize that firms with higher accounting quality have less concentrated debt structures. Measuring accounting quality with a comprehensive index based on the occurrence of material internal control weaknesses, accounting restatements, SEC AAERs, and firms' reliance on small auditors, we find that higher accounting quality is indeed associated with less concentrated debt structures. This relation is stronger for firms with higher default risk, as the probability that creditors need to coordinate is higher, and for firms with lower liquidation values, as creditor coordination to avoid liquidation is more important. Data Availability: Data are available from the public sources cited in the text.