The composition of immigrants depends not only on immigrant choice but also on immigration policy, because slots are rationed. Policy determines immigrant attainment, as evidenced by immigrants from Algeria having higher educational attainment than those from Israel or Japan. Theory predicts and evidence confirms that immigrant attainment is inversely related to the number admitted from a source country and positively related to population and education levels at home. A parsimonious specification has only two variables yet explains a majority of the variation in educational attainment of US immigrant groups. The theory and predictions are bolstered by Swedish data.

ABSTRACT Accounting for credit losses under U.S. GAAP is transitioning from an incurred to an expected loss model. The model change was motivated by concerns that reporting only incurred losses does not provide investors with sufficient and timely information about banks’ credit risk. In this paper, I develop a measure of lifetime expected credit losses using vintage analysis to examine whether stock prices reflect information about unrecognized expected credit losses in an incurred loss regime. Consistent with investors being able to obtain information about expected losses that are not recognized in the financial statements, I find that unrecognized expected credit losses are negatively associated with bank stock prices. The pricing of these losses is stronger for larger banks, consistent with lower costs of obtaining this information for banks with better information environments. I also find that recorded allowances were less than estimated expected losses, on average, consistent with concerns that implementing the expected loss model will adversely impact regulatory capital adequacy.

Abstract What is the aggregate and distributional impact of microfinance? To answer this question, we develop a quantitative macroeconomic framework of entrepreneurship and financial frictions in which microfinance is modelled as guaranteed small-size loans. We discipline and validate our model using recent empirical evaluations of small-scale microfinance programs. We find that the long-run general equilibrium impact is substantially different from the short-run effect. In the short-run partial equilibrium, output and capital increase with microfinance but total factor productivity (TFP) falls. In the long run, when general equilibrium effects are considered, as should be for economy-wide microfinance interventions, scaling up microfinance has only a small impact on per-capita income, because an increase in TFP is offset by lower capital accumulation. However, the vast majority of the population benefits from microfinance directly and indirectly. The welfare gains are larger for the poor and the marginal entrepreneurs, although higher interest rates in general equilibrium tilt the gains toward the rich.

Abstract Using City of Oakland data during COVID-19, we document that small-business components of survival capabilities (i.e., revenue resiliency, labor flexibility, and committed costs) vary by firm size. Nonemployer businesses rely on low-cost structures to survive. Microbusinesses (1–5 employees) depend on 14% greater revenue resiliency. Enterprises (6–50 employees) use labor flexibility to survive but face 10%–20% higher residual closure risk from committed costs. The evidence argues for size targeting of financial support programs, including committed costs and revenue-based lending programs. Supporting the capabilities mapping, we find that the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) increased medium-run survival probability by 20.5% specifically for microbusinesses.

This study examines the effect of Chief Financial Officers (CFOs) on mergers and acquisitions using a newly constructed CFO Influence Index. Because the perceived influence of CFOs is high in U.K. firms, we use that market for our analysis. We find that influential CFOs as measured by experience, stature, and pay are associated with more deal completions and the pursuit of smaller, domestic targets. High influence CFOs require less time to complete a deal and are able to identify higher quality targets for which they pay less. We also discover that firms with high influence CFOs enjoy greater long-term operating and financial performance post-merger. We conclude that influential CFOs are effective in creating shareholder value during M&A.

Abstract This paper models an unexplored source of liquidity risk large broker-dealers face: a withdrawal of collateral providers. By setting different contracting terms on repurchase agreements with cash borrowers and lenders, dealers can source funds for their own activities. Cash borrowers internalize the risk of losing their collateral in case their dealer defaults, prompting them to withdraw it. This incentive creates strategic complementarities among collateral providers, reducing a dealer’s liquidity position and compromising their solvency. Collateral runs are triggered by a contraction in dealers’ assets making them markedly different than traditional wholesale funding runs. Mitigating these risks involves different policy recommendations.

We examine the persistence of corporate corruption for a sample of privately-held firms from 12 Central and Eastern European countries from 2001 to 2015. Using publicly available information and stochastic frontier analysis, we create a proxy for corporate corruption based on a firm's internal inefficiency. We find that corruption enhances a firm's profitability. A channel analysis further reveals that inflating staff costs is the most common approach by which firms divert funds to finance corruption. In spite of corruption's negative effects on a country's economy, we conclude that it persists because of its ability to improve corporate profitability. We refer to this effect as the Corporate Advantage Hypothesis.

This study investigates whether brokerage houses appear to provide stock tips to politicians. Our results indicate that trades by politicians who are politically connected to the brokerage house where the trade is executed are more profitable. Our estimates suggest that these connected trades earn an incremental 0.3% over a five-day window relative to the politician's average profitability. Given the average number of trades our sample politicians execute in a year, the 0.3% return per trade translates to an incremental $3,411 in trading profits each year. We provide additional support by investigating the frequency and differential profitability of politicians' trades immediately before the brokerage house issues a revised recommendation, as well as during a period when Goldman, Sachs & Co. was sanctioned for providing stock tips to high priority clients. Additional tests suggest that brokerages may provide stock tips to politicians in exchange for favorable legislative outcomes or political information.