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Expectations Management and Beatable Targets: How Do Analysts React to Explicit Earnings Guidance?*

Contemporary Accounting Research 2006 23(3), 593-624 open access
This study investigates security analysts' reactions to public management guidance and assesses whether managers successfully guide analysts toward beatable earnings targets. We use a panel data set between 1995 and 2001 to examine the fiscal‐quarter‐specific determinants of management guidance and the timing, extent, and outcomes of analysts' reactions to this guidance. We find that management guidance is more likely when analysts' initial forecasts are optimistic, and, after controlling for the level of this optimism, when analysts' forecast dispersion is low. Analysts quickly react to management guidance and are more likely to issue final meetable or beatable earnings targets when management provides public guidance. Our evidence suggests that public management guidance plays an important role in leading analysts toward achievable earnings targets.

The Economics of Disclosure and Financial Reporting Regulation: Evidence and Suggestions for Future Research

Journal of Accounting Research 2016 54(2), 525-622
This paper discusses the empirical literature on the economic consequences of disclosure and financial reporting regulation, drawing on U.S. and international evidence. Given the policy relevance of research on regulation, we highlight the challenges with (1) quantifying regulatory costs and benefits, (2) measuring disclosure and reporting outcomes, and (3) drawing causal inferences from regulatory studies. Next, we discuss empirical studies that link disclosure and reporting activities to firm‐specific and market‐wide economic outcomes. Understanding these links is important when evaluating regulation. We then synthesize the empirical evidence on the economic effects of disclosure regulation and reporting standards, including the evidence on International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adoption. Several important conclusions emerge. We generally lack evidence on market‐wide effects and externalities from regulation, yet such evidence is central to the economic justification of regulation. Moreover, evidence on causal effects of disclosure and reporting regulation is still relatively rare. We also lack evidence on the real effects of such regulation. These limitations provide many research opportunities. We conclude with several specific suggestions for future research.

Do Managers Withhold Bad News?

Journal of Accounting Research 2009 47(1), 241-276 open access
In this study, we examine whether managers delay disclosure of bad news relative to good news. If managers accumulate and withhold bad news up to a certain threshold, but leak and immediately reveal good news to investors, then we expect the magnitude of the negative stock price reaction to bad news disclosures to be greater than the magnitude of the positive stock price reaction to good news disclosures. We present evidence consistent with this prediction. Our analysis suggests that management, on average , delays the release of bad news to investors.

The Walk‐down to Beatable Analyst Forecasts: The Role of Equity Issuance and Insider Trading Incentives*

Contemporary Accounting Research 2004 21(4), 885-924
It has been alleged that firms and analysts engage in an "earnings‐guidance game" where analysts first issue optimistic earnings forecasts and then "walk down" their estimates to a level that firms can beat at the official earnings announcement. We examine whether the walk‐down to beatable targets is associated with managerial incentives to sell stock after earnings announcements on the firm's behalf (through new equity issuance) or from their personal accounts (through option exercises and stock sales). Consistent with these hypotheses, we find that the walk‐down to beatable targets is most pronounced when firms or insiders are net sellers of stock after an earnings announcement. These findings provide new insights on the impact of capital‐market incentives on communications between managers and analysts.

Earnings management and investor protection: an international comparison

Journal of Financial Economics 2003 69(3), 505-527
This paper examines systematic differences in earnings management across 31 countries. We propose an explanation for these differences based on the notion that insiders, in an attempt to protect their private control benefits, use earnings management to conceal firm performance from outsiders. Thus, earnings management is expected to decrease in investor protection because strong protection limits insiders’ ability to acquire private control benefits, which reduces their incentives to mask firm performance. Our findings are consistent with this prediction and suggest an endogenous link between corporate governance and the quality of reported earnings.

Portfolio preferences of foreign institutional investors

Journal of Banking & Finance 2005 29(12), 2919-2946
This paper examines the investment allocation choices of actively-managed US mutual funds in emerging market equities after the market crises of the 1990s. We analyze both country- and firm-level disclosure and institutional policies that influence mutual funds’ allocation choices relative to major stock market indices. At the country level, we find that US funds invest more in open emerging markets with stronger accounting standards, shareholder rights, and legal frameworks. At the firm level, US funds are found to invest more in firms that adopt discretionary policies such as greater accounting transparency and the issuance of an ADR. Our results suggest that steps can be taken both at the country and the firm level to create an environment conducive to foreign institutional investment.

On the Relation between Financial Reporting Quality and Country Attributes: Research Challenges and Opportunities

The Accounting Review 2020 95(3), 279-314 open access
We provide new evidence on the codependence among the many country attributes previously linked to financial reporting quality. First, we show that the synchronicity of 21 changing country attributes spikes surrounding mandatory IFRS adoption. Thus, while IFRS adoption “explains” increased reporting quality, this finding disappears after including other changing country determinants of reporting quality. Second, a single underlying factor distills the numerous reporting quality measures used in the international literature. Finally, we document that four underlying country factors largely subsume the individual explanatory power of 72 candidate country attributes in explaining reporting quality levels across countries. We conclude with implications and suggestions for future research on international reporting quality. JEL Classifications: F30; G15; K22; M41. Data Availability: Data used in this paper are from publicly available sources and/or are drawn directly from data tabulated in published research papers.