Knowledge that Transforms

We highlight the role of duration and exchange rate risks on portfolio flows by using a unique and comprehensive database of U.S. investor flows into emerging market government bonds denominated in local currency. Borrowing long-term mitigates rollover risk but amplifies valuation changes that further interact with currency movements. Our analysis highlights the double-edged nature of long-term borrowing and draws attention to market stress dynamics due to strategic complementarities among mutual fund investors.

This paper shows that high market concentration in the U.S. manufactured home loan market allows lenders to charge markedly higher interest rates than in the mortgage market for site-built homes. Borrowers in counties with higher lender concentration face significantly higher rates, and evidence from bunching at a regulatory rate threshold, an instrumental variable analysis, and a difference-in-differences analysis suggests a causal link. Integrated lenders, which play an outsized role in this market, charge particularly high rates, and we provide evidence suggesting that these lenders exploit their market power over borrowers. We discuss factors that may explain limited lender entry.

In a dynamic setting, high-quality firms may tolerate current adverse selection when raising financing because they expect future opportunities to profitably acquire assets from failed lower-quality firms. But search frictions in asset trading impede efficiency, inviting government intervention. Anticipation of such intervention affects ex ante adverse selection and project investment because it reduces buyers’ ex post trading profits. Depending on parameter values, this anticipation can have either pernicious or salutary effects. The pernicious effect reduces participation by high-quality firms, worsens adverse selection, and depresses project investment, potentially triggering investment-enhancing government assistance (an “intervention trap”). The salutary effect mitigates adverse selection and increases project investment.

Many economic questions require estimating the price effect of demand shifts (multipliers) in the bond market. Corporate bonds have salient characteristics that distinguish between close and distant substitutes. We show that accounting for heterogeneous substitutability between bonds is critical for correctly estimating multipliers. We find that security-level multipliers are very small. In fact, an order of magnitude smaller than the estimate ignoring heterogeneous substitutability. Nonetheless, portfolio multipliers are substantially larger and monotonically increase with the aggregation level. Furthermore, we find that the multiplier is larger for high-yield bonds, longer-maturity bonds, and bonds with greater arbitrage risks.

We study a dynamic trade-off model where shareholders can freely adjust debt but lack commitment to future debt policies. A debt policy is time-consistent if shareholders prefer it to deviating and losing credibility ex post. We characterize the optimal time-consistent policy in a class. It includes a stable regime, where shareholders actively manage liabilities to maintain the target interest coverage ratio, and a distress regime triggered by large negative shocks, where shareholders temporarily abandon the target. This policy has realistic properties and bridges the gap between the static trade-off theory of debt and theory based on the leverage ratchet effect.

Performance chasing is pervasive in active mutual funds, index mutual funds, and ETFs, with positive flow-performance sensitivity evident in both broad-based and niche funds and for the skill and nonskill components of returns. The sensitivity of ETFs is greatest, with insignificant differences between active and index mutual funds. The heightened sensitivity of ETFs is not explained by benchmark design or exchange trading, and is amplified by institutional ownership. Institutional trading of ETFs follows a momentum strategy, rather than flow management or benchmarking. Institutional herding and the outsourcing of investment management to model portfolios heightens the performance sensitivity of ETF flows.

This paper proposes a new channel through which long-term interest rates transmit to credit spreads. When life insurers carry negative duration gaps, higher rates reduce their liabilities more than assets. Rate increases therefore boost equity and risk-bearing capacity, lowering equilibrium credit spreads. Empirically, I test this channel with bond-level yields and a maturity-based discontinuity in bond ownership. Insurers’ trades confirm the mechanism: after rates rise, insurers shift portfolios towards riskier, high-yield bonds. As rates increase, bonds more heavily held by life insurers experience greater spread reductions. The results show that institutional duration mismatch shapes credit spreads and corporate financing conditions.

Do impact investors seek impact, or merely “impact wash”? We provide systematic evidence on the nonfinancial determinants of impact investing. Impact investors focus on firms aligned with the priorities of the federal government and disproportionately invest in economically disadvantaged regions. While we find high levels of coinvestment between impact and traditional investors, we also show that impact investors influence the strategies of their traditional coinvestors, are more likely to fund firms in nascent industries, and invest countercyclically. Finally, we characterize investment heterogeneity based on a novel classification of impact investment theses, with a focus on climate, environment, and jobs and equity.

Increasing personal bankruptcy protection raises consumers’ desire to borrow and lenders’ cost of extending credit; the impact on equilibrium borrowing is ambiguous. Using bankruptcy protection changes between 1999 and 2005 across U.S. states, we find that borrowers respond to greater protection by increasing their unsecured debt. Border county estimates suggest that local economic conditions do not drive these results. Borrowers pay more for protection through higher interest rates, yet delinquency is unaffected. Our results indicate that rising borrower demand outstripped decreasing supply. Increased protections did not reduce the aggregate level of household debt but affected the composition of borrowing.

We introduce the nonlinear arbitrage correction (NAC), the residual that renders a linear benchmark model arbitrage-free while preserving the law of one price. The price of NAC captures the marginal Sharpe ratio increase consistent with no-arbitrage and upper-bounds the constrained Hansen–Jagannathan distance. Using four decades of international equity, currency, and factor returns, NAC is strongly countercyclical, peaking during crises when linear models turn negative. The implied Sharpe ratio increase reaches 0.3, underscoring its economic relevance. While linear models perform well on average, they fail in distressed states, underpricing nonlinear payoffs. Incorporating NAC restores positivity and stabilizes pricing across regimes.