Knowledge that Transforms

This paper examines whether monetary policy responsibilities alter the central bank's role as a bank supervisor. The analysis focuses on the United States, where the Federal Reserve System shares supervisory duties with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. Among the three institutions, the Fed is the only one responsible for monetary policy. Hence, the Fed's supervisory behavior—as captured by formal actions—is compared with the behavior of the other two agencies. The results suggest that the Fed's monetary policy responsibilities do alter its bank supervisory behavior: indicators of monetary policy affect the supervisory actions of the Fed, but do not affect the actions of the other two agencies.

We analyze the impact of takeover threats on long-term relationships between the target owners and other stakeholders. In the absence of takeovers, stakeholders' bargaining power increases their incentive to invest but reduces the owners' incentive to invest. The threat of a takeover that would transfer value from the stakeholders reduces their ex ante investment. However, the stakeholders may appropriate ex post some value created by a takeover. This can prevent some value-enhancing takeovers. We examine extensions to the disciplinary role of takeovers, takeover defense mechanisms, and trade credit, and discuss empirical predictions.

This paper presents a dynamic model of imperfect competition in banking where the banks can invest in a prudent or a gambling asset. We show that if intermediation margins are small, the banks' franchise values will be small, and in the absence of regulation only a gambling equilibrium will exist. In this case, either flat-rate capital requirements or binding deposit rate ceilings can ensure the existence of a prudent equilibrium, although both have a negative impact on deposit rates. Such impact does not obtain with either risk-based capital requirements or nonbinding deposit rate ceilings, but only the former are always effective in controlling risk-shifting incentives.

We test a new hypothesis that may help explain the procyclicality of bank lending. The institutional memory hypothesis is driven by deterioration in the ability of loan officers over the bank's lending cycle that results in an easing of credit standards. We test this hypothesis using data from individual US banks over 1980–2000: over 200,000 bank-level observations on commercial loan growth, over 2,000,000 loan-level observations on interest rate premiums, and over 2000 bank-level observations on credit standards and loan spreads from bank management survey responses. The empirical analysis supports the hypothesis, although there are differences by bank size class.

Using a unique set of banking data containing both originally-reported and subsequently-revised financial variables, we study accounting restatements. Our results indicate the worse a bank's financial condition, the more likely it is for originally-reported data to understate financial losses. Also, we find supervisory exams have an important role in uncovering financial problems and prompting accounting restatements to correct loss underreporting. While revisions are directly related to financial difficulties, exam-based restatements are evident at even the earliest stages of deterioration, indicating substantial accounting misstatements—at both banks and other types of companies—can occur well outside severe business circumstances.

Only recently the debate on bank capital regulation has devoted specific attention to the role that bank loan loss provisions can play as a part of the overall capital regulatory framework. This paper contributes to the ongoing debate by demonstrating empirically that loan loss provisioning needs to be an integral component of capital regulation. We find empirical evidence that many banks around the world delay provisioning for bad loans until too late, when cyclical downturns have already set in, thereby magnifying the impact of the economic cycle on banks' income and capital.

I demonstrate that ratings-based capital rules, including both the current Basel Accord and its proposed revision, can be reconciled with the general class of credit value-at-risk models. Each exposure's contribution to VaR is portfolio-invariant only if (a) dependence across exposures is driven by a single systematic risk factor, and (b) no exposure accounts for more than an arbitrarily small share of total portfolio exposure. Analysis of rates of convergence to asymptotic VaR leads to a simple and accurate portfolio-level add-on charge for undiversified idiosyncratic risk. There is no similarly simple way to address violation of the single factor assumption.

This paper examines the costs, wealth effects, and determinants of international capital raising for a sample of 260 public debt issues made by non-U.S. firms in the Yankee bond market. We find that investors demand economically significant premiums on bonds issued by firms that are located in countries that do not protect investors' rights and do not have a prior history of ongoing disclosure. The results provide support for the literature that suggests better legal protections and more detailed information disclosure increases the price investors will pay for financial assets. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: F3, G1.

We provide a new theory of the role of banks as catalysts for industrialization. In their influential analysis of continental European industrialization, Gerschenkron and Schumpeter argued that banks promoted the creation of new industries. We formalize this role of banks by introducing financial intermediaries into a “big push” model. We show that banks may act as catalysts for industrialization provided they are sufficiently large to mobilize a critical mass of firms and that they possess sufficient market power to make profits from coordination. The theory provides simple conditions that help explain why banks seem to play a creative role in some but not in other emerging markets. The model also shows that universal banking helps to reduce the cost of acting as catalyst. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: G21, N2, O14, O16.

The paper examines the relation between the architecture of an economy's financial system—its degree of market orientation—and economic performance in the real sector. I find that while market-based systems outperform bank-based systems among countries with developed financial sectors, bank-based systems fare better among countries with underdeveloped financial sectors. Countries dominated by small firms grow faster in bank-based systems and those dominated by larger firms in market-based systems. The findings suggest that recent trends in financial development policies that indiscriminately prescribe market-oriented financial-system architecture to emerging and transition economies might be misguided because suitable financial architecture, in and of itself, could be a source of value. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: G1, G21, O1, 04.