Knowledge that Transforms

This article studies how minimum-wage policies affect capital investment using the industrial census of manufacturing firms in China, where minimum-wage policies vary across counties. Exploiting discontinuities in minimum-wage policy at county borders, we find that minimum wages increase capital investment. The investment response to minimum wages is stronger for firms that are labor intensive, that have more room for technological improvement, and that cannot sufficiently pass on labor costs to consumers. A natural experiment based on county jurisdictional changes further assures the causal relationship.

Mandatory disclosure of CEO compensation peers signals potential outside opportunities for the cited CEOs by revealing which companies view them as viable executive candidates. CEOs cited often as compensation peers (especially by larger firms, which represent attractive employment opportunities) are more likely to leave for better positions or receive compensation increases. Equity-based awards following cites by larger firms have shorter vesting periods, suggesting these CEOs gain negotiating power relative to their boards. The disclosure requirement enhanced labor market transparency and led to higher compensation for highly cited CEOs without penalizing less cited CEOs, putting upward pressure on CEO compensation.

We show that the 2016 Brexit Referendum had multifaceted consequences for corporate America, shaping employment, investment, divestitures, R&D, and savings. The unexpected vote outcome led U.S. firms to cut jobs and investment within U.S. borders. Using establishment-level data, we document that these effects were modulated by the reversibility of capital and labor. American-based job destruction was particularly pronounced in industries with less skilled and more unionized workers. U.K.-exposed firms with less redeployable capital and high input-offshoring dependence cut investment the most. Data on the near universe of U.S. establishments also point to measurable, negative effects on establishment turnover (openings and closings). Our results demonstrate how foreign-born political uncertainty is transmitted across international borders, shaping domestic capital formation and labor allocation.

We offer a new social approach to investment decision making and asset prices. Investors discuss their strategies and convert others to their strategies with a probability that increases in investment returns. The conversion rate is shown to be convex in realized returns. Unconditionally, active strategies (e.g., high variance and skewness) dominate, although investors have no inherent preference for these characteristics. The model has strong predictions for how the adoption of active strategies depends on investors’ social networks. In contrast with nonsocial approaches, sociability, self-enhancing transmission, and other features of the communication process determine the popularity and pricing of active investment strategies.

We present evidence that short sellers alternate between stock picking during expansions and market timing during recessions. First, firm-level short interest is a much stronger negative predictor of the cross-section of stock returns during expansions than it is during recessions. High short interest also only predicts negative future earnings announcement returns during expansions. We attribute these findings to short sellers’ emphasis on collecting firm-specific signals. Second, short sellers appear to make factor bets more so during recessions than during expansions. These bets tend to pay off as we observe a strong negative relation between the betas of highly shorted stocks and future stock market returns, a result that disappears during expansions. Together, these findings are consistent with theories of information acquisition under attention constraints, endogenous information production, as well as theories of time variation in aggregate overconfidence amongst traders.

Existing studies relate the puzzling low average returns on out-of-the-money (OTM) index call and put options to nonstandard preferences. We argue the low option returns are primarily due to the pricing of market volatility risk. When volatility risk is priced, expected option returns match the realized average option returns. Moreover, consistent with its theoretical effect on expected option returns, the volatility risk premium is positively related to future index option returns and this relationship is stronger for OTM options and at-the-money straddles. Finally, we find the jump risk premium contributes to some portion of OTM put option returns.

Small and micro-enterprises are usually majority-owned by entrepreneurs. Using a unique sample of loan applications from such firms, we study the role of owners’ gender in bank credit decisions and post-credit-decision firm outcomes. We find that, ceteris paribus, female entrepreneurs are more prudent loan applicants than are males because they are less likely to apply for credit or to default after loan origination. The relatively more aggressive behavior of male applicants pays off, however, in terms of higher average firm performance after loan origination.

Value and momentum returns and combinations of them across both countries and asset classes are explained by their loadings on global macroeconomic risk factors. These loadings describe why value and momentum have positive return premia, although being negatively correlated. The global macroeconomic risk factors also perform well in capturing the returns on other characteristic-based portfolios. The findings identify a global macroeconomic source of the common variation in returns across countries and asset classes.

We study trading and risk management decisions of banks in over-the-counter markets, accounting for 2 types of risk: payoff risk from loans and counterparty risk from trading activities. Our model provides empirically supported predictions on the structure of the interbank credit default swap (CDS) market: i) banks with high default probabilities either buy or sell CDS contracts; ii) because of the counterparty risk friction, payoff risk is only partially shared; and iii) safe banks act as intermediaries and help diversify counterparty risk. Banks manage their default probabilities to become creditworthy counterparties, but they do so in a socially inefficient way.

We find that acquirers create higher shareholder returns when advised by investment banks with more experience in the target industry. This finding is stronger when acquirers face more difficulties understanding and evaluating the targets. Further analyses show that these banks help acquirers avoid overpaying for targets and thus capture more of the deal synergy rather than making deals generating higher synergy. Our results are robust to controlling for an exhaustive set of determinants of acquirer returns and an identification strategy that exploits exogenous shocks to the supply of investment banks with target-industry experience.