Knowledge that Transforms

Abstract Sweden has a high degree of separation of ownership from control through pyramids, dual-class shares, and cross-holdings. This increases the potential for private benefits of control. However, Sweden's extralegal institutions—tax compliance and newspaper circulation—are consistent with greater shareholder protection. Using data on Swedish mergers we find limited evidence of shareholder expropriation. Apparently, Sweden's extralegal institutions offset the drawback of weak corporate governance.

Abstract We document by several methods that trading in Nasdaq stocks is localized, but find little evidence that cloudy weather in the city in which a company is based affects its returns. The first evidence of localized trading is that the time zone of a company's headquarters affects intraday trading patterns in its stock. Second, firms in blizzard-struck cities see a dramatic trading volume drop compared to firms in other cities. Third, the Yom Kippur holiday dampens trading volume in companies located in cities with high Jewish populations. Despite the strong evidence of localized trading, cloudy conditions near the firm's headquarters do not provide profitable trading opportunities.

Abstract Previous studies offer a mixed understanding of the economic role of stock repurchases. This paper investigates three key economic motivations—mispricing, disgorging free cash flow, and increasing leverage—by evaluating cross-sectional differences in both the initial market reaction and long-run performance. The initial reaction provides some support for the mispricing story. However, subsequent earnings-related information shocks suggest that the initial market reaction is incomplete and that long-run performance may be informative. The long-horizon return evidence is most consistent with the mispricing hypothesis and, to some degree, the free cash flow hypothesis. We find little support for the leverage hypothesis.

Abstract This paper studies the link between population age structure, net outflows (dividends plus repurchases less net issues) from the stock market, and stock market returns in an overlapping generations framework. I find support for the traditional lifecycle models—the outflows from the stock market are positively correlated with the changes in the fraction of old people (65 and over) and negatively correlated with the changes in the fraction of middle-aged people (45 to 64). Changes in population age structure also add significant explanatory power to equity premium regressions. The population structure adds to the predictive power of regressions involving the investment/savings rate for the U.S. economy. Finally, international demographic changes have some power in explaining international capital flows.

Abstract This paper examines intra-day trading data from the inter-dealer broker market for U.S. Treasury securities and measures the degree of price pressure in the off-the-run Treasury market. As is well known, securities that would appear to be very close substitutes, i.e., on-the-run and off-the-run Treasury bonds, behave as if there is some degree of market segmentation. This is the first systematic study of the off-the-run Treasury note and bond market focused entirely on a price pressure effect using intra-day data. The paper analyzes price pressure through matched pairs of securities that differ only in liquidity.

Abstract In 1997, the Securities and Exchange Commission enacted significant reforms in U.S. markets. Several studies document that the new order handling rules increased competition for Nasdaq stocks, but the reforms were designed with an additional goal in mind—to increase quote competition for the trading of NYSE-listed securities on Nasdaq (i.e., third market trading). An evaluation of the reforms in the third market indicates that they did not achieve this objective. Instead, both quote quality and quoting frequency were diminished, due primarily to elimination of the excess spread rule. This suggests that more significant changes are needed to increase inter-exchange competition.

Abstract We study a financial market where risk-neutral traders are endowed with a signal that perfectly reveals the direction (but not the exact amount) of the liquidation value of a normally distributed risky asset. The impact of order flow on prices is nonlinear with a bullish/bearish information structure, which is broadly consistent with empirical evidence. Also, private information is revealed quicker than in a strategic oligopoly.

Abstract Motivated by economic models of sequential trade, empirical analyses of market dynamics frequently estimate liquidity as the coefficient of signed order flow in a price change regression. This paper implements such an analysis for futures transaction data from pit trading. To deal with the absence of timely bid and ask quotes (which are used to sign trades in most equity market studies), this paper proposes new techniques based on Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation. The model is estimated for four representative Chicago Mercantile Exchange contracts. The highest liquidity (lowest order flow coefficient) is found for the S&P 500 index. Liquidity for the Euro and U.K. £ contracts is somewhat lower. The pork belly contract exhibits the least liquidity.

Abstract I analyze the impact of competition on the risk premia of R&D ventures engaged in a multiple-stage patent race with technical and market uncertainty. After solving in closed form for the case of a two-stage race in continuous time, I show that a firm's risk premium decreases as a consequence of technical progress and increases when a rival pulls ahead. Compared to the case where firms collude, R&D competition erodes the option value to mothball a project, reduces the completion time and the failure rate of R&D, and causes higher and more volatile risk premia. Numerical simulations reveal that competition can generate risk premia up to 500 annual basis points higher and up to three times more volatility than in a collusive industry.

Abstract One striking feature of international portfolio investment is the extent to which equity portfolios are concentrated in the domestic equity market of the investor—the home bias puzzle. I examine the role of investors' perception of foreign investment risk on their portfolio choices. The expected returns and risk of foreign investment are specified through an asset pricing model with the home portfolio being the benchmark asset—Pastor's (2000) domestic CAPM. The model serves as a reference point around which investors can center their prior beliefs. I focus on investors' prior beliefs that are consistent with the literature on confidence in the familiar—foreign equities, in terms of both expected returns and risk, being viewed less favorably than domestic equities. These prior beliefs are then combined with the data on G7 equities, and the revised beliefs are used to obtain the global optimal asset allocation. To hold predominantly domestic equities, each G7 investor has to believe that the risk of foreign investment is several times higher than the actual risk. The home bias is more of a puzzle for a U.S. investor during the 1970s. Specifying investors' prior beliefs around the world CAPM does not help resolve the puzzle.