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Private Placements of Equity and Firm Value: Value Enhancing or Value Destroying?

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2021 56(6), 2072-2102 open access
This paper reassesses two conflicting hypotheses on the valuation impacts of private placements of equity (PPEs), the monitoring/certification hypothesis and the managerial entrenchment hypothesis, by focusing on the shareholder approval, active buyer, and premium pricing features of PPEs. We find that PPEs with these features have significant positive announcement returns and insignificant mean long-run returns, while the corresponding announcement and long-run returns for PPEs without such features are significantly negative. Firms with value-enhancing PPE features are better governed and use proceeds more efficiently. Thus, the heterogeneous nature of PPEs helps reconcile the puzzling return patterns and conflicting hypotheses regarding PPEs.

More Cash, Less Innovation: The Effect of the American Jobs Creation Act on Patent Value

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2021 56(1), 1-28
Firms can become less innovative following a sudden cash “inflow.” Specifically, multinational firms that were eligible to repatriate (and indeed repatriated) cash to the United States under the American Jobs Creation Act (AJCA) generate less valuable patents than otherwise similar firms. They also explore more. This effect only exists among firms in less competitive industries, firms with lower institutional ownership (IO), and firms with overconfident chief executive officers (CEOs); this effect is mainly driven by the reduction in the value of U.S.-originated patents. Our evidence suggests that, without appropriate governance, a cash windfall may lead managers to engage in riskier innovation strategy, which can destroy value.

Does Independent Advice to the Board Affect CEO Compensation?

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2021 56(2), 693-744
This article investigates the role external advice plays in the board’s determination of chief executive officer (CEO) compensation. We show that CEO incentive pay increases with the degree of compensation consultant independence using a quasi-natural experiment provided by the creation of an independent consultant after separation from an affiliated consultant. Specifically, switching to an independent consultant significantly increases the pay–performance sensitivity and relative performance evaluation of CEO contracts. Despite the benefits of independent advice, independent consultants may not be hired due to the influence of powerful CEOs or because boards already possess adequate expertise.

Asset Variance Risk Premium and Capital Structure

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2021 56(2), 647-691
This article investigates how the asset-return variance risk premium changes leverage. I find that the premium reduces leverage by increasing risk-neutral bankruptcy probability and costs in a model where asset returns have stochastic variance with the risk premium. Empirically, the model calibrations verify a significant reduction in optimal leverage, closer to observed leverage than the model without the premium. In model-free regressions, I document that leverage correlates negatively with the variance premium. The highest negative correlation is among investment-grade firms with low asset beta and historical variance but high variance premiums because their assets have high exposure to the market’s variance premium.

Do Analysts and Their Employers Value Access to Management? Evidence from Earnings Conference Call Participation

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2021 56(3), 745-787 open access
The literature examining analyst activity assumes that access to management is valued by analysts and their employers. We propose a readily observable measure of access: How often an analyst is invited to be among the first to ask questions in the Q&A session of an earnings conference call. These “early participants” are more successful in the labor market than peers from the same brokerage when their brokerages close. Our results show that access is valued by both sell-side and buy-side employers and reflects connectivity to management as well as analyst skill dimensions not captured in traditional measures of performance.

Fiscal Deficits, Bank Credit Risk, and Loan-Loss Provisions

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2021 56(5), 1537-1589
Fiscal deficits represent an important variable for banks’ aggregate credit risk, revealing governments’ ability to curb banks’ losses in bad states, either with direct cash infusions or with macroeconomic stabilization policies. Deteriorating deficits are associated with increasing financial distress of the banking sector and higher levels of loan-loss provisions. The effect is more pronounced for banks with a strong aversion to underprovisioning and is robust to a battery of tests and to the identification of fiscal shocks using military-spending data. This association represents an additional source of negative comovement between provisions and economic conditions, with implications for financial stability.

Government Employment Guarantee, Labor Supply, and Firms’ Reaction: Evidence from the Largest Public Workfare Program in the World

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2021 56(2), 409-442
Using establishment-level data, we examine the impact of the Indian government’s employment guarantee program on labor and firm behavior. We exploit the staggered implementation of the program for identification and find that the program led to a 10% reduction in the permanent workforce in firms. Firms responded to the adverse labor-supply shock by resorting to increased mechanization. This significantly increased the firms’ cost of production, leading to a decline in net profits and productivity. These effects manifested primarily in firms paying low wages, firms having low labor productivity and greater sales volatility, and firms located in states with pro-employer labor regulations.

Can Restructuring Gains Be Sustained Without Ownership Changes? Evidence from Withdrawn Privatizations

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2021 56(4), 1476-1504
By employing a novel, hand-collected sample of withdrawn and completed share issue privatizations, we show that both groups undergo comparable restructuring processes over the 3 years preceding the event. We employ matching procedures to explicitly control for the restructuring effect, isolating the effect of the ownership transfer from state to private investors on corporate policies and performance. We document that, absent the ownership transfer, most of the gains realized during the restructuring process are reabsorbed over the posttreatment period. The transition from state to private ownership thus represents a necessary condition for the long-term success of privatization programs.

Corporate Liquidity, Acquisitions, and Macroeconomic Conditions

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2021 56(2), 443-474 open access
This paper evaluates how the relation between firms’ cash holdings and their acquisition decisions changes over macroeconomic cycles using a sample of 47,615 acquisitions from 36 countries between 1997 and 2014. Higher cash holdings and stronger macroeconomic conditions each increase the likelihood that a firm will make an acquisition. However, larger cash holdings decrease the sensitivity of acquisitions to macroeconomic factors, suggesting that cash holdings lower financing constraints during times when the cost of external finance is high. Announcement day abnormal returns for acquirers follow a consistent pattern: They decrease with acquirer cash holdings and with better macroeconomic conditions.

The COVID-19 Crisis and the Allocation of Capital

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2021 56(7), 2309-2319
We summarize and synthesize the results of the articles in this symposium issue on research in financial economics related to the COVID-19 pandemic. We argue that the articles, taken together, present evidence that the pandemic resulted in a distributional shock to capital allocation. The underlying mechanisms include accelerating technological shifts, government stimulus programs, and heterogeneous responses of investors and firms. We augment these articles with evidence on the heterogeneous effects of the pandemic on profitability, payout, investment, employment, and productivity across sectors.