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Optimal Debt Structure and the Number of Creditors

Journal of Political Economy 1996 104(1), 1-25
Within an optimal contracting framework, the authors analyze the optimal number of creditors a company borrows from. They also analyze the optimal allocation of security interests among creditors and intercreditor voting rules that govern rule renegotiation of debt contracts. The key to the authors' analysis is the idea that these aspects of the debt structure affect the outcome of debt renegotiation following a default. Debt structures that lead to inefficient renegotiation are beneficial in that they deter default but they are also costly if default is beyond a manager's control. The optimal debt structure balances these effects.

Relative Wage Movements and the Distribution of Consumption

Journal of Political Economy 1996 104(6), 1227-1262
We analyze how relative wage movements among birth cohorts and education groups affected the distribution of household consumption and economic welfare. Our empirical work draws on the best available cross-sectional data sets to construct synthetic panel data on U.S. consumption, labor supply, and wages during the 1980s. We find that low-frequency movements in the cohort-education structure of pretax hourly wages among men drove large changes in the distribution of household consumption. The results constitute a spectacular failure of between-group consumption insurance, a failure not explained by existing theories of informationally constrained optimal consumption behavior. A welfare analysis indicates that the cost of between-group consumption variability is larger than the cost of aggregate consumption variability by two orders of magnitude

How Does Privatization Work? Evidence from the Russian Shops

Journal of Political Economy 1996 104(4), 764-790 open access
We use a survey of 452 Russian shops, most of which were privatized between 1992 and 1993, to measure the importance of alternative channels through which privatization promotes restructuring. Restructuring is measured as major renovation, a change in suppliers, an increase in hours stores stay open, and layoffs. There is strong evidence that the presence of new owners and new managers raises the likelihood of restructuring. In contrast, there is no evidence that equity incentives of old managers promote restructuring. The evidence points to the critical role new human capital plays in economic transformation.

Competition and Corporate Performance

Journal of Political Economy 1996 104(4), 724-746
Are people right to think that competition improves corporate performance? The author's investigations indicate first that there are some theoretical reasons for believing this hypothesis to be correct but they are not overwhelming. Furthermore, the existing empirical evidence on this question is weak. However, the results reported here, based on the analysis of around 670 U.K. companies, provide some support for this view. Most important, the author presents evidence that competition, as measured by increased numbers of competitors or by lower levels of rents, is associated with a significantly higher rate of total factor productivity growth.

Equilibrium Income Inequality among Identical Agents

Journal of Political Economy 1996 104(5), 1047-1064
The paper offers a theory of income differences in which income inequality exists and persists despite identical tastes and talents. Teams of unskilled labor supervised by schooled managers produce goods with increasing returns to scale. Agents are assumed unable to borrow to fund the human capital investment needed to become managers. Despite ex ante identical agents, the model displays the following equilibrium phenomena: (i) risk-averse agents accept fair gambles, implying an unequal ex post distribution of unearned income; (ii) agents agree to publicly subsidize education, although those receiving the subsidy have the highest material wealth; and (iii) income and educational differences are perpetuated from generation to generation

Measurement Matters: Recent Results from Monetary Economics Reexamined

Journal of Political Economy 1996 104(5), 1065-1083
Inferences about the effects of money on economic activity may depend importantly on the choice of a monetary index because simple-sum aggregates cannot internalize pure substitution effects. This hypothesis is investigated by replicating five recent studies that have challenged an aspect of the "conventional wisdom" about the effects of money on aggregate activity. In four of the five cases, the qualitative inference in the original study is reversed when a simple-sum monetary aggregate is replaced by a Divisia index of the same asset collection. The results are mixed in the fifth case.

Social Status, Education, and Growth

Journal of Political Economy 1996 104(1), 108-132
This paper investigates the implications of social rewards on the allocation of talent in society and consequently on the process of economic growth. The authors consider two sources of heterogeneity among workers: nonwage income and innate ability. A greater emphasis on status may induce the 'wrong' individuals, that is, those with low ability and high wealth, to acquire schooling, causing workers with high ability and low wealth to leave the growth-enhancing industries. This crowding-out effect, taken alone, discourages growth. Growth may be enhanced by a more egalitarian distribution of wealth, which reduces the demand for status

Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Consumers

Journal of Political Economy 1996 104(2), 219-240
Empirical difficulties encountered by representative-consumer models are resolved in an economy with heterogeneity in the form of uninsurable, persistent, and heteroscedastic labor income shocks. Given the joint process of arbitrage-free labor prices, dividends, and aggregate income satisfying a certain joint restriction, it is shown that this process is supported in the equilibrium of an economy with judiciously modeled income heterogeneity. The Euler equations of consumption in a representative-agent economy are replaced by a set of Euler equations that depend not only on the per capita consumption growth but also on the cross-sectional variance of the individual consumers' consumption growth.

Federal Fiscal Constitutions: Risk Sharing and Redistribution

Journal of Political Economy 1996 104(5), 979-1009
This paper studies the political and economic determinants of regional public transfers. Specifically, it focuses on how such transfers are shaped by alternative fiscal constitutions, where a constitution is an allocation of fiscal instruments across different levels of governments plus a procedure for the collective choice of these instruments. Realistic restrictions on fiscal instruments introduce a trade-off between risk sharing and redistribution. Different constitutions produce very different results. In particular, a federal social insurance scheme, chosen by voting, provides overinsurance, whereas an intergovernmental transfer scheme, chosen by bargaining, provides underinsurance

Understanding Risk and Return

Journal of Political Economy 1996 104(2), 298-345 open access
This paper uses an equilibrium multifactor model to interpret the cross-sectional pattern of postwar U.S. stock and bond returns. Priced factors include the return on a stock index, revisions in forecasts of future stock returns (to capture intertemporal hedging effects), and revisions in forecasts of future labor income growth (proxies for the return on human capital). Aggregate stock market risk is the main factor determining excess returns but, in the presence of human capital or stock market mean reversion, the coefficient of relative risk aversion is much higher than the price of stock market risk