Knowledge that Transforms

Abstract The corporate bond market is larger, more illiquid, and presumably less efficient than the equity market. These features provide numerous profit opportunities for corporate bond mutual funds that are unique to the corporate bond market. However, whether corporate bond mutual funds have the valuation skills needed to take advantage of these opportunities is unclear. We introduce a novel measure to assess the valuation skills of investment-grade corporate bond mutual funds, which we refer to as the valuation accuracy score (VAS). VAS recognizes funds holding more underpriced and less overpriced corporate bonds as ex-ante having better valuation skills. It predicts future fund performance, is stable over time, and is unrelated to other sources of skill. Investors chase the performance of higher-VAS funds more aggressively and exhibit a convex flow–performance relation among these funds.

Abstract Panic-based (non-fundamental) spikes in depositors’ attention can be a source of bank fragility in theory, but separating such spikes from underlying fundamentals is challenging empirically. Using online search data, we show that during the Global Financial Crisis, UK banks facing surges in attention respond by increasing retail deposit rates, but only for instant withdrawal deposits. Exploiting variation across brands owned by the same bank (and thus sharing the same fundamentals), we find that banks respond even when surges are not justified by fundamentals. In addition, comparing onshore and offshore deposits by the same brand, we show that bank response is substantially stronger when the lack of deposit insurance and a larger presence of wholesale depositors magnifies potential losses to depositors.

Abstract We present results from an experiment where participants have access to automated trading algorithms, which they may deploy at will while still trading manually. Treatments differ in whether robots must not be halted, deployment is compulsory, or robots can be halted and replaced at will. We hypothesize that robot trading would reduce mispricing, and that the effect would be more pronounced as commitment degree increases. Yet, compared to manual trading only, we observe equally large and frequent mispricing and, in early trading, significantly higher bid–ask spreads and more frequent flash crashes/price surges. Participants earn more, provided they combine robot and manual trading. Compared to evidence from archival data, we find significantly higher use of liquidity-taking robots. We attribute this to the inability, in the field, to identify the presence of liquidity takers when they happen not to trade.

Abstract This article documents the existence of an intensive margin of the gender gap in innovative entrepreneurship. Not only there are fewer women than men who become entrepreneurs, but female entrepreneurs also hold smaller equity stakes, make less substantial investments, and are less frequently appointed as firm executives compared to their male counterparts. Leveraging the context of emergency contraception deregulation in Italy and varying abortion service accessibility, I find that mitigating maternity risk narrows these gaps. Consequently, female-led firms become riskier and more attractive to venture capital investors during their early stages.

Abstract In Los Angeles, all-cash home purchases quintupled during the last decade. Compared with an else-equal mortgage offer, a cash offer is associated with 29 percent shorter time-to-close and a 2–3.9 percent price discount, indicating a substantial amount of financing risk—the risk to a seller that a transaction may not close on time and may fail to occur again because a mortgage contingency fails. The estimated cash discount aligns well with a canonical model calibrated to the sample market. Our findings reveal that closing risk alone is insufficient to explain the cash discount. Rather, it turns on the possibility that a property back on the market may fail to sell, requiring a substantial risk compensation. The estimated cash discount is smaller during booms and in larger markets, highlighting the inseparability of financial frictions in the mortgage market and search frictions in the housing market.

Abstract We uncover a link between momentum and overvaluation: assets that generate strong momentum profits have lower risk-adjusted unconditional returns; conversely, trading momentum within overvalued assets doubles the profit of the standard momentum strategy. We compute the profits of a momentum strategy within various portfolios; portfolios within which momentum is profitable are defined as momentum trading opportunity (MTO). High-MTO assets have negative unconditional alphas and concentrate in the short legs of most anomalies; controlling for MTO reduces anomaly alphas by up to half. These results imply that the existence of other anomalies is closely linked to the existence of momentum and they should be studied jointly.

Abstract This article investigates how cross-selling affects relationship lending using internal data from a large bank and the Swedish credit registry. I show that within a bank–firm relationship, profit earned from non-loan products cross-subsidizes loans and increases (1) credit supply and (2) the likelihood of the bank’s pausing or waiving interest payments for delinquent loans (lenience in delinquency). For identification, I exploit the Basel II-induced exogenous variation in products’ profitability while holding constant the firm’s creditworthiness and relationship informativeness. I find that the average affected firm experienced a decrease of 6 percent ($400,000) in credit supply and 30 percent (9.8 pp) in lenience in delinquency. The results highlight the importance of cross-subsidization as a mechanism through which cross-selling affects bank–firm relationships and inform optimal regulatory design for lenders who multi-produce.

Abstract How does common ownership affect creative destruction? What are the underlying mechanisms? Do the effects of increased common ownership vary among different customer segments? Using product-level data, we show that, on average, firms with greater common ownership introduce new products at a faster rate and discontinue existing products at a similar pace. The observed economic impacts intensify over time, reflecting the gradual nature of knowledge spillovers and the learning curve. Subsequent to an increase in common ownership, portfolio firms tend to both add and drop products that are dissimilar to those of their rival firms, with the net effect of decreasing between-firm product dissimilarity. We also find that the effects are more relevant for product modules with greater technological likeness, lower barriers to market entry, and greater numbers of product market players. Product variety is substantially greater in product lines catering to higher-income households. Overall, the result highlights the procompetitive effects of increased common ownership.

Abstract Existing research finds that investors’ returns vary with their wealth and level of sophistication. We bring a new perspective from the supply side by showing that return heterogeneity can be magnified as assets offered by the market become more complex. Using detailed account-level data, we examine the trading of B funds—complex, structured products in the Chinese market. During a 3-year market cycle, the return gap between the naive and sophisticated is an order-of-magnitude greater when trading B funds than when trading simple, non-structured funds. In an event study, we confirm that this disparity is driven by differences in investors’ understanding of product complexity.

Abstract Using new data from US and global markets, we revisit market risk premium predictability by equity anomalies. We apply a repertoire of machine-learning methods to forty-two countries to reach a simple conclusion: anomalies, as such, cannot predict aggregate market returns. Any ostensible evidence from the USA lacks external validity in two ways: it cannot be extended internationally and does not hold for alternative anomaly sets—regardless of the selection and design of factor strategies. The predictability—if any—originates from a handful of specific anomalies and depends heavily on seemingly minor methodological choices. Overall, our results challenge the view that anomalies as a group contain helpful information for forecasting market risk premia.