Knowledge that Transforms

This article uses a unique option data set to provide detailed descriptive statistics on the purchased and written open interest and open buy and sell volume of several classes of investors. We also show that volatility trading through straddles and strangles accounts for a small fraction of option trading volume and presents evidence that a large percentage of call writing is part of covered call positions. Finally, we find that during the stock market bubble of the late 1990s and early 2000 the least sophisticated investors in the data set substantially increased their purchases of calls on growth but not value stocks.

We provide the impact on asset prices of search-and-bargaining frictions in over-the-counter markets. Under certain conditions, illiquidity discounts are higher when counterparties are harder to find, when sellers have less bargaining power, when the fraction of qualified owners is smaller, or when risk aversion, volatility, or hedging demand is larger. Supply shocks cause prices to jump, and then “recover” over time, with a time signature that is exaggerated by search frictions: The price jump is larger and the recovery is slower in less liquid markets. We discuss a variety of empirical implications.

This article examines how in a context of limited enforceability of contracts suppliers may have a comparative advantage over banks in lending to customers because they are able to stop the supply of intermediate goods. Suppliers may act also as liquidity providers, insuring against liquidity shocks that could endanger the survival of their customer relationships. The relatively high implicit interest rates of trade credit are the result of insurance and default premiums that are amplified whenever suppliers face a relatively high cost of funds. I explore these effects empirically for a panel of UK firms.

Given the cross-sectional and temporal variation in their liquidity, emerging equity markets provide an ideal setting to examine the impact of liquidity on expected returns. Our main liquidity measure is a transformation of the proportion of zero daily firm returns, averaged over the month. We find that it significantly predicts future returns, whereas alternative measures such as turnover do not. Consistent with liquidity being a priced factor, unexpected liquidity shocks are positively correlated with contemporaneous return shocks and negatively correlated with shocks to the dividend yield. We consider a simple asset-pricing model with liquidity and the market portfolio as risk factors and transaction costs that are proportional to liquidity. The model differentiates between integrated and segmented countries and time periods. Our results suggest that local market liquidity is an important driver of expected returns in emerging markets, and that the liberalization process has not fully eliminated its impact.

In this article, we provide a novel rationale for credit ratings. The rationale that we propose is that credit ratings serve as a coordinating mechanism in situations where multiple equilibria can obtain. We show that credit ratings provide a “focal point” for firms and their investors, and explore the vital, but previously overlooked implicit contractual relationship between a credit rating agency (CRA) and a firm through its credit watch procedures. Credit ratings can help fix the desired equilibrium and as such play an economically meaningful role. Our model provides several empirical predictions and insights regarding the expected price impact of rating changes.

An experimental approach is used to examine the performance of three different multiunit auction designs: discriminatory, uniform-price with fixed supply, and uniform-price with endogenous supply. We find the actual strategies to be inconsistent with theoretically identified equilibrium strategies. The discriminatory auction is found to be more susceptible to collusion than either uniform-price auction and so, contrary to theoretical predictions and previous experimental results, it generates the lowest average revenue. Consistent with theoretical predictions, the actual bid schedules are more elastic with reducible supply or discriminatory pricing than in the uniform-price auction with fixed supply.

This article evaluates the impact of capital controls and their liberalization on the activities of US multinational firms. These firms attempt to circumvent capital controls by reducing reported local profitability and increasing the frequency of dividend repatriations. As a result, the reported profit impact of local capital controls is comparable with the effect of 27% higher corporate tax rates, and affiliates located in countries imposing capital controls are 9.8% more likely than other affiliates to remit dividends to parent companies. Multinational affiliates located in countries with capital controls face 5.25% higher interest rates on local borrowing than do affiliates of the same parent borrowing locally in countries without capital controls. Capital control liberalizations are associated with significant increases in multinational activity—property, plant, and equipment grow at 6.9% faster annual rates following liberalizations. The combination of the costliness of avoidance and higher interest rates discourages investment in countries with capital controls, and this effect is reversed upon liberalization of controls.

This article provides evidence of information transmission from the United States and Japan to Korean and Thai equity markets. Information is defined as important macroeconomic announcements in the United States, Japan, Korea, and Thailand. Using high-frequency intraday data, I find a large and significant association between developed-economy macroeconomic announcements and emerging-economy equity volatility and trading volume at short time horizons. Previous studies’ findings of at most weak evidence of transmission from developed to emerging economies may be due to their use of lower frequency data and their focus on developed-economy financial market innovations as a proxy for information.

We exploit the restrictions of intertemporal portfolio choice in the presence of nonfinancial income risk to test hedging using the information contained in the actual portfolio of the investor. We use a unique data set of Swedish investors with information broken down at the investor level and into various components of investor wealth, income, and demographic characteristics. Portfolio holdings are identified at the stock level. We show that investors do not hedge but invest in stocks closely related to their nonfinancial income. We explain this with familiarity, that is, the tendency to concentrate holdings in stocks to which the investor is geographically or professionally close or that he has held for a long period. We show that familiarity is not a behavioral bias, but is information driven. Familiarity-based investment allows investors to earn higher returns than they would have otherwise earned if they had hedged.

The proposition that investors are overconfident about their valuation and trading skills can explain high observed trading volume. With biased self-attribution, the level of investor overconfidence and thus trading volume varies with past returns. We test the trading volume predictions of formal overconfidence models and find that share turnover is positively related to lagged returns for many months. The relationship holds for both market-wide and individual security turnover, which we interpret as evidence of investor overconfidence and the disposition effect, respectively. Security volume is more responsive to market return shocks than to security return shocks, and both relationships are more pronounced in small-cap stocks and in earlier periods where individual investors hold a greater proportion of shares.