We investigate (1) how well a machine learning algorithm can predict one-year ahead effective tax rates (ETRs) and (2) which items in the financial statements and notes are most useful for these predictions. We compare our machine-generated ETR predictions with those from ETRs implied by analysts’ earnings forecasts and find the algorithm’s predictions are less biased, more precise, and explain more of the variance in future ETRs. We then use Explainable AI (based on Shapley values) to measure the usefulness of each disclosure item in the algorithm’s predictions. We find that while some tax-related items are useful, others offer minimal value. Using the machine learning algorithm’s use of information as a benchmark, we then further use Shapley values to examine which information is underweighted or overweighted by analysts. Overall, our results help inform standard setters on the relevance of certain tax disclosures in achieving the objective of predicting future ETRs

We employ a novel machine learning technique to classify analysts’ forecast revisions into five types based on how the revision weighs publicly available signals. We label these forecast types as quant, sundry, contrarian, herder, and independent forecasts. Our tests reveal that a greater diversity of forecast types within the consensus is associated with increased consensus dispersion and improved consensus accuracy. Additionally, consensus diversity is associated with an improved information environment for firms, as reflected in reduced earnings announcement information asymmetry and volatility, higher earnings response coefficients, and faster price formation. Our study sheds light on how analysts revise their forecasts and documents capital market benefits associated with different analyst forecasting approaches

Many countries have converged their domestic auditing standards with International Standards on Auditing (ISA). This study provides global empirical evidence on first-order determinants of audit quality by examining whether and how convergence affects audit quality through utilizing data on 41 jurisdictions and using a staggered difference-in-differences approach. We find that ISA convergence leads to higher audit quality on average. The positive effect is stronger for clients of domestic audit firms, in jurisdictions with stronger enforcement, and when the ISA convergence level is higher. Insights from textual features suggest that changes in principle-orientation, comparability, readability, and size (or length) of auditing standards are positively related to audit quality. Exploratory analyses of textual content using machine learning reveal that the emphases of ISA on going-concern assessment and legal compliance, fraud risk assessment and internal control evaluation, and related-party transactions and subsequent events contribute to enhanced audit quality

We examine firm disclosure choice during the initial public offering (IPO) roadshow presentation to understand the informativeness of a management presentation designed to attract investors. Although firms submit a comprehensive registration filing during the IPO, managers also prepare a roadshow presentation, which is shorter and typically allows managers more autonomy to select the information released and how it is discussed. We find that IPO roadshows have significantly more positive, less negative, and less uncertain language than the SEC filing. Using machine learning to classify roadshow sentences into five major topics from the registration statement, we find that roadshows differ in both the topics selected and the language used within each topic. We then examine the predictive ability of the roadshow language, finding that roadshow language predicts future accounting performance, whereas filing language does not. These results highlight the informational role of management presentations, despite the flexibility they grant managers

Companies, including public accounting firms, are integrating systems with advanced algorithms into decision-making processes to assist with developing and evaluating complex estimates. However, individuals may hesitate to rely on algorithmic output, particularly under conditions of uncertainty. We conduct two experiments examining whether and how a system’s ability to adapt—an emerging feature of machine learning—interacts with uncertainty to influence accounting professionals’ reliance on algorithmic advice. In Experiment 1, we find that auditors are more willing to rely on advice from learning algorithms than static algorithms when estimation uncertainty is relatively high. Experiment 2 replicates this result in a general accounting context where preparers develop their own estimates. Our findings demonstrate that accounting professionals’ reliance on algorithms is contextually dependent, and highlights algorithm adaptability as an important technological feature that can promote advice utilization, particularly when adaptability is likely important to the judgment context (e.g., when estimation uncertainty is high

The relationships between accounting earnings and stock prices, as well as between unexpected earnings and returns, have received substantial attention in the empirical literature. Several theoretical models predict the shapes of these relationships. However, a comprehensive empirical description that could be used to evaluate these predictions is lacking. By integrating recent advances in statistics and machine learning with findings in the accounting literature, we develop an empirical method to identify the relationships, which is consistent with the firm-specific and nonlinear features of the theoretical models. Our approach provides a clear description of stylized and robust patterns in the relationships that are relevant to distinguish between existing models and to aid future theory development. The findings are consistent with recently proposed dynamic option models for both the earnings-price and unexpected earnings-returns relationships. Data availability: Data are available from the public sources cited in the text. A summary of the R code used in the article is available in Starica and Marton (2024

This study uses machine learning models to forecast future material misstatements. Using raw financial data, audit variables, qualitative features, and an efficient algorithm, we design a dynamic model that continuously updates with new information. Our model outperforms the benchmarks for both one-year-ahead and two-year-ahead predictions in terms of out-of-sample predictive power and economic impact on net income. Using Explainable Artificial Intelligence, we identify key predictive features, including comprehensive income, foreign firm status, and accrued interest and penalties from unrecognized tax benefits. Results show that investors achieve better outcomes using a proactive investment strategy based on our prediction models than reactive detection models. Furthermore, our prediction model can help managers prevent internal control weaknesses, assist auditors in assessing misstatement risks in advance, and enable regulators to allocate inspection resources proactively. Our study advances the literature by moving beyond the detection of past material misstatements to the forecasting of future misstatements. Data Availability: Publicly available

To mitigate information asymmetry about borrowers in developing economies, digital lenders use machine-learning algorithms and nontraditional data from borrowers’ mobile devices. Consequently, digital lenders have managed to expand access to credit for millions of individuals lacking a prior credit history. However, short-term, high-interest digital loans have raised concerns about predatory lending practices. To examine how digital credit influences borrowers’ financial well-being, we use proprietary data from a digital lender in Kenya that randomly approves loan applications that would have otherwise been rejected based on the borrower’s credit profile. We find that access to digital credit improves borrowers’ financial well-being across various mobile-phone-based well-being measures, including monetary transactions and balances, mobility, and social networks as well as borrowers’ self-reported income and employment. We further show that this positive impact is more pronounced when borrowers have limited access to credit, take loans for business purposes, and obtain more credit

This study evaluates alternative measures of the tone of financial narrative. We present evidence that word-frequency tone measures based on domain-specific wordlists—compared to general wordlists—better predict the market reaction to earnings announcements, have greater statistical power in short-window event studies, and exhibit more economically consistent post-announcement drift. Further, inverse document frequency weighting, advocated in Loughran and McDonald (2011), provides little improvement to the alternative approach of equal weighting. We also provide evidence that word-frequency tone measures are as powerful as the Naïve Bayesian machine-learning tone measure from Li (2010) in a regression of future earnings on MD&A tone. Overall, although more complex techniques are potentially advantageous in certain contexts, equal-weighted, domain-specific, word-frequency tone measures are generally just as powerful in the context of financial disclosure and capital markets. Such measures are also more intuitive, easier to implement, and, importantly, far more amenable to replication

Despite the growing use of subjective performance incentives used in executive bonuses, empirical evidence on their effectiveness remains inconclusive. This study explores three aspects of subjective metrics in bonus plan design: their prevalence, the goals they target, and their impact on managerial behavior and firm outcomes. First, I document 53.8 percent of CEO bonus plans include at least one subjective performance measure, and among these plans, an average of 38.9 percent of total bonus weight is allocated to these measures. Using machine learning, I show subjective metrics target incentives related to employees, firm culture, and executive performance. Second, using the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act as a quasi-exogenous shock to contract design, I find firms increase the number and weight of subjective metrics by 22.9 percent and 10.4 percent, respectively. Finally, I find the increasing prevalence of subjective performance measures positively influences CEO effort, corporate culture, and innovation. Data Availability: The data used in this study are from public sources and available upon request