Knowledge that Transforms

Current Editorial Board:Pierre Azoulay, Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyOlivier Coibion, University of Texas, AustinWill Dobbie (Co-Chair), Harvard UniversityRaymond Fisman (Co-Chair), Boston UniversityBenjamin R. Handel, University of California, BerkeleyBrian A. Jacob, University of MichiganKareen Rozen, Brown UniversityXiaoxia Shi, University of Wisconsin–MadisonTavneet Suri, MITDaniel Xu, Duke UniversityRecently Retired from the Editorial Board:Rema N. Hanna (Co-Chair), Harvard UniversityShachar Kariv, University of California, BerkeleyTable 1—Manuscripts Submitted and Published, 2017–2021This table shows the trends in papers submitted and published over the past five years. The journal has seen increased growth in paper submissions: 14% in 2018, 11% in 2019, and 25% in 2020. Submission numbers remained steady in 2021. The number of published papers has remained steady, ranging from 65 to 70 papers per year.Table 2—Status of Manuscripts by Year of Submission, 2017–2021This table shows the status of manuscripts submitted over the past five years. The papers summarily rejected remained steady, ranging from 54% to 62% of papers submitted. The percent of papers sent out for review but ultimately rejected has remained steady, ranging from 29% to 35% of papers. Acceptance rates range from 7% to 8% of papers submitted. Papers submitted in 2021 have not had enough time to accurately reflect the acceptance rate.Table 3—Decision Time for Manuscripts Sent to Referees for ReviewThis table reports the decision time for manuscripts sent to referees for review over the past five years. In 2018, the average decision time for papers that were sent to referees was 95 days. The average decision time in 2021 improved to 86 days. In addition, the decision time at the right tail improved substantially.Table 4—Distribution of First Decision Times by Submission YearThis table includes all first-round paper submissions and shows the distribution of decision times in monthly increments for the past five years. This table also reflects the improvement in the journal's decision turnaround times. In 2021, 86% of manuscripts received a decision within three months and 99% within five months.Table 5—Subject Matter of Published Manuscripts, 2021This table shows the distribution of the subject matter of papers published in 2021. Published papers covered a variety of subjects, but the most common were microeconomics and macro- and monetary economics. Table 1.Manuscripts Submitted and Published, 2017–2021YearSubmittedPublished20171,0496820181,2007020191,3306620201,6666520211,67465

Many development programs that attempt to disseminate improved technologies are limited in duration because of external funding constraints or an assumption of impact sustainability, but there is limited evidence on whether and when terminating such programs is efficient. We provide novel experimental evidence on the impacts of a randomized phaseout of an agricultural extension and subsidy program that promotes improved inputs and cultivation practices among smallholder women farmers in Uganda. We find that phaseout does not diminish the use of either practices or inputs as farmers shift purchases from NGO-sponsored village-based supply networks to market sources. These results indicate that short-term interventions can suffice to trigger persistent effects, consistent with models of technology adoption that emphasize learning from experience.

The existence of collective reputation implies an important externality. Among firms trading internationally, quality shocks about one firm's products could affect the demand of other firms from the same origin country. We study such a reputation spillover in the context of a large-scale scandal that affected the Chinese dairy industry in 2008. Leveraging detailed firm-product level administrative data and official quality inspection reports, we document sizable reputation spillovers on uncontaminated firms. We further investigate potential mechanisms that could mediate the strength of collective reputation, including information accuracy, observability of the supply chain, and prior export experience.

Since the Great Recession in 2007–2009, U.S. real GDP has failed to return to its previously projected path, a phenomenon widely associated with secular stagnation. We investigate whether this stagnation was due to hysteresis effects from the Great Recession, a persistent negative output gap following the recession, or slower trend growth for other reasons. To do so, we develop a new Markov-switching time series model of output growth that accommodates two different types of recessions: those that permanently alter the level of real GDP and those with only temporary effects. We also account for structural change in trend growth. Estimates from our model suggest that the Great Recession generated a large, persistent negative output gap rather than any substantial hysteresis effects, with the economy eventually recovering to a lower trend path that appears to be due to a reduction in productivity growth that began prior to the onset of the Great Recession.

We study the effect of Internet diffusion on childbirth procedures performed in England between 2000 and 2011. We show that broadband Internet access increased cesarean sections (C-sections): mothers living in areas with better Internet access are 2.5% more likely to obtain a C-section. The effect is driven by first-time mothers who are 6% more likely to obtain a C-section. The increased C-section rate is not accompanied by changes in health care outcomes; thus health care costs increased with no corresponding medical benefits. We show evidence documenting the growing importance of the Internet as a source of health-related information.

We examine price negotiation in the payment card industry by exploiting a unique merchant-, industry-, and city-level data set. Motivated by the substantial variation in acquirer fees and heterogeneous merchant card transactions, we use Nash bargaining to model the negotiation over the acquirer fee between an acquirer and a merchant. We find that the merchants secure a larger incremental surplus than the acquirer on average. Moreover, merchants might face upward pressure on acquirer fees as the card penetration rate rises over time, and policies that weaken the acquirer's bargaining power could relieve the upward fee pressure.

Berkson errors are commonplace in empirical microeconomics. In consumer demand, this form of measurement error occurs when the price an individual pays is measured by the (weighted) average price paid by individuals in a group (e.g., a county) rather than the true transaction price. We show the importance of Berkson errors for demand estimation with nonseparable unobserved heterogeneity. We develop a consistent estimator using external information on the true price distribution. Examining gasoline demand in the United States, we document substantial within-market price variability. Accounting for Berkson errors is quantitatively important. Imposing the Slutsky shape constraint reduces sensitivity to Berkson errors.

Over the past fifteen years, eleven states have restricted employers' access to the credit reports of job applicants. We estimate that county-level job vacancies have fallen by 5.5% in occupations affected by these laws relative to exempt occupations in the same counties and national-level vacancies for the same occupations. Cross-sectional heterogeneity suggests that employers use credit reports as signals of a worker's ability to perform the job: vacancies fall more in counties with a large share of subprime residents and less for occupations with other commonly available signals. Vacancies fall most for occupations involving routine tasks, suggesting that credit reports contain information relevant for these types of jobs.

We study a dynamic game in which players compete for a prize. In a waiting game with two-sided private information about strength levels, players choose fighting, fleeing, or waiting. Players earn a “deterrence value” on top of the prize if their opponent escapes without a battle. We show that this value is a key determinant of the type of equilibrium. For intermediate values, sorting takes place, with weaker players fleeing before others fight. Time then helps to reduce battles. In an experiment, we find support for the key theoretical predictions and document suboptimal predatory fighting.

We study the importance of social interactions on occupational choice in Victorian London using a multinomial choice model within an incomplete social network. Individuals form heterogeneous rational expectations about their peers' behaviors, taking into account their characteristics and the strength of their ties. We show the conditions under which the endogenous, exogenous, and correlated effects can be identified and a unique equilibrium can be established, Using a novel data set, we proxy social groups by parish boundaries and strength of ties by geographic distances, Our results show the importance of the endogenous effects and reveal distinct effects by occupation.