We document a new way that discrimination operates: through sequential spillover effects. Employers in an incentivized resume rating experiment evaluate a sequence of hypothetical candidates with randomly assigned characteristics. Candidates are rated worse when following white men than when following women or minorities. Exploring the mechanisms, we find that spillover effects are inversely related to direct bias. When reviewing high-quality resumes or recruiting in STEM (science, technology, engineering, and math) industries, employers directly favor white men and display no spillover effect. For low-quality resumes or non-STEM industries, we find no direct bias but a strong spillover effect. Results suggest that discrimination arises in subtle ways.

Aid fragmentation—the simultaneous operation of multiple development agencies in one setting—has long raised concerns about coordination challenges and opportunities for corruption. Leveraging unique data on project delivery in Afghanistan, we present the first microlevel empirical analysis of aid fragmentation. We find that aid delivered by a single donor can significantly reduce corruption. Projects delivered under conditions of aid fragmentation, by contrast, can facilitate corruption. We find evidence for a theoretical mechanism linking infrastructure and physical goods with waste and leakage. Our results clarify the policy losses tied to fragmentation, yielding insights for combating misappropriation of aid.

Stablecoins are a new form of private money. They are fragile but largely trade at par. How? We present a model and empirical work to examine a novel source of demand for stablecoins. Stablecoin owners are indirectly compensated for run risk by lending their coins to crypto speculators. The stablecoin can then support its $1 peg, but this arrangement links crypto speculation to traditional financial markets where stablecoins invest their reserves.

We investigate how to improve efficiency using regression adjustments with covariates in covariate-adaptive randomizations (CARs) with imperfect subject compliance. Our regression-adjusted estimators, which are based on the doubly robust moment for local average treatment effects, are consistent and asymptotically normal even with heterogeneous probabilities of assignment and misspecified regression adjustments. We propose an optimal but potentially misspecified linear adjustment and its further improvement via a nonlinear adjustment, both of which lead to more efficient estimators than the one without adjustments. We also provide conditions for nonparametric and regularized adjustments to achieve the semiparametric efficiency bound under CARs.

The influence of on-the-job training and supervisors, especially in high-stakes settings like policing, is poorly understood. Examining a central behavior in the debate surrounding police reform, we investigate the impact of a field training officer (FTO) on a recruit’s use of force. Leveraging a setting with conditional as-good-as-random assignment, we demonstrate a causal link between FTO and recruit use of force. A 1 standard deviation increase in FTO force propensity leads to a 14 to 18 percent rise in recruit force, persisting for at least two years. This underscores field training’s impact and reveals a promising avenue for reform.

Pharmacy benefit managers dominate the U.S. pharmaceutical market but are controversial and poorly understood. We analyze PBMs as market intermediaries that operate formulary contests in which on-patent brand-drug makers compete for favorable placement by offering rebates off list price. These formulary contests deliver efficiency gains compared to drug makers selling directly to consumers; PBMs capture some of these gains. Our approach answers key questions regarding the determinants of efficiency, rebates, list prices, and PBM market power in the pharmaceutical market. Our analysis also explains how common contracting practices, federal regulations, and incentives within formulary contests can undermine market efficiency.

We study how firms' inventory holdings are affected by natural disasters. Building on the premise that managers often make decisions in line with the availability heuristic, we investigate whether managers increase inventory holdings in response to heightened disaster risk perceptions and the need to hedge against inventory shortages. Through a battery of tests, we show that the occurrence of disasters in neighboring counties triggers inventory stockpiling, an effect that is unlikely to be driven by the real disaster disruptions. Our results also indicate that inventory stockpiling is likely inconsistent with a rational expectations equilibrium. Collectively, our results highlight another undesirable consequence of natural disasters and warn about supply chain implications due to increased climate ambiguity. Data Availability: All the data used in this study are publicly available.

We propose a novel identification strategy to isolate exogenous immigration shocks across US counties, by interacting quasi-random variations in the composition of ancestry across counties with the contemporaneous inflow of migrants from different countries. We show a positive causal impact of immigration on local innovation and wages at the five-year horizon. The positive dynamic impact of immigration on innovation and wages dominates the short-run negative impact of increased labor supply. A structural estimation of a model of endogenous growth and migrations suggests the increased immigration to the United States since 1965 may have increased innovation and wages by 5 percent.