We track the geographic and temporal propagation of local economic shocks from new oil and gas production generated by hydrofracturing. Each million dollars of new production produces $80,000 in wage income and $132,000 in royalty and business income within a county. Within 100 miles, one million dollars of new production generates $257,000 in wages and $286,000 in royalty and business income. Roughly two-thirds of the wage income increase persists for two years. Assuming no general equilibrium effects, new extraction increased aggregate US employment by as many as 640,000, and decreased the unemployment rate by 0.43 during the Great Recession.
Several impatient investors with private costs C i face an indivisible irreversible investment opportunity whose value V is governed by geometric Brownian motion. The first investor i to seize the opportunity receives the entire payoff, V-C i . We characterize the symmetric Bayesian Nash equilibrium for this game. A laboratory experiment confirms the model's main qualitative predictions: competition drastically lowers the value at which investment occurs; usually the lowest-cost investor preempts the other investors; observed investment patterns in competition (unlike monopoly) are quite insensitive to changes in the Brownian parameters. Support is more qualified for the prediction that markups decline with cost.
American Economic Review2016106(5), 656-661open access
Using Danish administrative data, we estimate the impact of bequests on the level and inequality of wealth. We compare the distributions of wealth over time of people whose parent died and those whose parent did not. Bequests account for 26 percent of the average post-bequest wealth 1-3 years after parental death and significantly affect wealth throughout the distribution. Bequests increase absolute wealth inequality (variance of the distribution censored at the top/bottom 1% increases by 33 percent), but reduce relative inequality (the top 1% share declines by 6 percentage points from the base of 31 percent).
Fifty Years of U.S. Income Data from the Current Population Survey: Alternatives, Trends, and Quality by Daniel H. Weinberg, Charles T. Nelson, Marc I. Roemer and Edward J. Welniak. Published in volume 89, issue 2, pages 18-22 of American Economic Review, May 1999
This paper develops and deploys a methodology for testing whether people correctly value tools that reduce attention costs. We call these tools bandwidth enhancements (BEs) and characterize how demand for BEs varies with the pecuniary incentives to be attentive, under the null hypothesis of correct perceptions and optimal choice. We examine if the theoretical optimality conditions are satisfied in three experiments. The first is a field experiment ( n = 1373) with an online education platform, in which we randomize incentives to complete course modules and incentives to utilize a plan‐making tool to complete the modules. In the second experiment ( n = 2306), participants must complete a survey in the future. We randomize survey‐completion incentives and how long participants must wait to complete the survey, and we elicit willingness to pay for reminders. The third experiment ( n = 1465) involves a psychometric task in which participants must identify whether there are more correct or incorrect mathematical equations in an image. We vary incentives for accuracy, elicit willingness to pay to reduce task difficulty, and examine the impact of learning and feedback. In all experiments, demand for reducing attention costs increases as incentives for accurate task completion increase. However, in all experiments—and across all conditions—our tests imply that this increase in demand is too small relative to the null of correct perceptions. These results suggest that people may be uncertain or systematically biased about their attention cost functions, and that experience and feedback do not necessarily eliminate bias.
Using factor methods, we decompose industrial production (IP) into components arising from aggregate and sector-specific shocks. An approximate factor model finds that nearly all of IP variability is associated with common factors. We then use a multisector growth model to adjust for the effects of input-output linkages in the factor analysis. Thus, a structural factor analysis indicates that the Great Moderation was characterized by a fall in the importance of aggregate shocks while the volatility of sectoral shocks was essentially unchanged. Consequently, the role of idiosyncratic shocks increased considerably after the mid-1980s, explaining half of the quarterly variation in IP.
Although daylight saving time (DST) is thought to provide economic benefits, extant research documents various adverse effects of DST adjustments. However, prior research provides little conclusive evidence about the effects of DST adjustments on capital market participants. We examine the effects of “spring forward” DST advances, which disrupt the human sleep cycle and economic activities, on investors’ processing of earnings news. We find a delayed price response to earnings news released during the first week following a DST advance. We also find that this effect is stronger among firms with investors who are more likely to be trading on earnings news and among firms with less sophisticated investors. Our findings contribute to research on the unintended consequences of DST adjustments and to the growing literature on intra-investor variation in disclosure processing costs. Our study may be of interest to legislators currently debating proposed legislation that would eliminate DST phasing. Data Availability: Data are available from the sources cited in the text.
The article presents information about a Committee appointed by the American Accounting Association. The work of the Committee on Monographs during the year, 1943, has been devoted primarily to two projects. The first consisted of preparing a compilation of the releases and pronouncements on accounting matters issued by the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Committee on Accounting Procedure and the Committee on Auditing Procedure of the American Institute of Accountants. The second project was the preparation of a monograph on the principles of consolidated statements. This monograph was written by Dr. Maurice Moonitz of Stanford University, and was reviewed and approved for publication by the Committee. The Committee has also given some attention to two or three other projects and manuscripts. The president of the Committee said that the educational institutions and programs are all being subjected to special stresses and difficult restrictions during the war. The programs of most colleges and universities in fields customarily followed by men have had to be materially curtailed or completely eliminated.
Economywide Implications from US Bioenergy Expansion by Mark Gehlhar, Agapi Somwaru, Peter B. Dixon, Maureen T. Rimmer and Ashley R. Winston. Published in volume 100, issue 2, pages 172-77 of American Economic Review, May 2010