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Divestitures and the liquidity of the market for corporate assets

Journal of Financial Economics 2002 64(1), 117-144
The liquidity of the market for corporate assets plays an important role in explaining whether a firm divests a business segment, which segment the firm divests, and whether it divests a core segment or an unrelated segment. Firms are more likely to divest segments from industries with a more liquid market for corporate assets, unrelated segments, poorly performing segments, and small segments. Strikingly, the segment with the least liquid market is less likely to be divested than the best-performing segment, while the worst-performing segment is less likely to be divested than the segment with the most liquid market.

The Economic Dilution of Employee Stock Options: Diluted EPS for Valuation and Financial Reporting

The Accounting Review 2002 77(3), 627-652
In this paper, we derive a measure of diluted EPS that incorporates the economic implications of the dilutive effects of employee stock options. We show that the existing FASB treasury-stock method of accounting for the dilutive effects of outstanding options systematically understates the options' dilutive effect, and thus overstates reported EPS. Using firm-wide data on 731 employee stock option plans, our proposed measure suggests that economic dilution from options is, on average, 100 percent greater than dilution in reported diluted EPS using the FASB treasury-stock method. We examine the implications of our analysis for stock price valuation, the price-earnings relation, and the return-earnings relation. We demonstrate analytically that when firms have options outstanding, empirical applications of equity valuation models that use reported per-share earnings as an input (e.g., Ohlson 1995) yield upwardly biased estimates of the market value of common stock. We predict that when the difference between our measure of economic dilution from options and the FASB treasury-stock method dilution from options is greater, the observed return-earnings and price-earnings coefficients will be smaller, and we provide some (albeit weak) empirical support for this prediction.

Informal Insurance Arrangements with Limited Commitment: Theory and Evidence from Village Economies

Review of Economic Studies 2002 69(1), 209-244
Recent work on consumption allocations in village economies finds that idiosyncratic variation in consumption is systematically related to idiosyncratic variation in income, thus rejecting the hypothesis of full risk-pooling. We attempt to explain these observations by adding limited commitment as an impediment to risk-pooling. We provide a general dynamic model and completely characterise efficient informal insurance arrangements constrained by limited commitment, and test the model using data from three Indian villages. We find that the model can fully explain the dynamic response of consumption to income, but that it fails to explain the distribution of consumption across households.

Ferreting out Tunneling: An Application to Indian Business Groups

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2002 117(1), 121-148 open access
Owners of business groups are often accused of expropriating minority shareholders by tunneling resources from firms where they have low cash flow rights to firms where they have high cash flow rights. In this paper we propose a general methodology to measure the extent of tunneling activities. The methodology rests on isolating and then testing the distinctive implications of the tunneling hypothesis for the propagation of earnings shocks across firms within a group. When we apply our methodology to data on Indian business groups, we find a significant amount of tunneling, much of it occurring via nonoperating components of profit.

Emerging Market Spreads: Then versus Now

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2002 117(2), 695-733
We analyze yield spreads on sovereign bonds issued by emerging markets, using modern data from the 1990s and newly collected historical data on bonds traded in London during 1870–1913, a previous era of global capital market integration. We show that spreads today comove across emerging markets to a significantly higher degree than they did in the historical sample. Moreover, sharp changes in spreads in the 1990s tend to be mostly related to global events, whereas they were primarily related to country-specific events in 1870–1913. Although we find that fundamentals comove somewhat more strongly today than they did in the past, we conjecture that today's investors pay less attention to country-specific events than their predecessors did.

Inequality, Transfers, and Growth: New Evidence from the Economic Transition in Poland

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2002 84(2), 324-341 open access
This paper analyzes the evolution of inequality in Poland during the economic transition that began in 1989-1990. Using microdata from the Household Budget Surveys, we find that, after a brief spike in 1989, income and consumption inequality actually declined to below pretransition levels during 1990-1992 and then increased gradually, rising only moderately above pretransition levels by 1997. In sharp contrast, inequality in labor earnings increased markedly and consistently throughout the 1990-1997 period. We find that social transfer mechanisms, including pensions, played an important role in mitigating increases in both overall inequality and poverty. We argue that, from a political economy perspective, transfer mechanisms were well designed to reduce political resistance to market-oriented reforms in the early years of transition, paving the way for rapid growth. Finally, we provide cross-country evidence from the transition economies that is consistent with our interpretation of the Polish experience and is also consistent with recent work in growth theory suggesting that redistribution that reduces inequality can enhance growth.

Land Values in a Newly Zoned City

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2002 84(1), 62-72
The introduction of a new zoning ordinance to Chicago in 1923 offers a natural experiment that allows us to determine the effects of zoning on relative land-value growth rates. Policymakers claimed at the time that land-use zoning would raise aggregate land values by reducing negative externalities associated with mixed land use. After controlling for initial land use and the endogeneity of zoning decisions, we find that residential zoning led to higher land value growth rates than commercial zoning.

Disentangling the Incentive and Entrenchment Effects of Large Shareholdings

Journal of Finance 2002 57(6), 2741-2771
This article disentangles the incentive and entrenchment effects of large ownership. Using data for 1,301 publicly traded corporations in eight East Asian economies, we find that firm value increases with the cash‐flow ownership of the largest shareholder, consistent with a positive incentive effect. But firm value falls when the control rights of the largest shareholder exceed its cash‐flow ownership, consistent with an entrenchment effect. Given that concentrated corporate ownership is predominant in most countries, these findings have relevance for corporate governance across the world.

Tax Reform and Automatic Stabilization

American Economic Review 2002 92(3), 411-433 open access
An income tax provides implicit insurance by dampening the variability of disposable income and consumption. Using an empirical framework derived from the consumption insurance literature and data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics we examine the effect of federal income tax reforms of the 1980's on automatic stabilization of consumption. Overall, ERTA and TRA86 reduced consumption stability by about 50 percent. Recently increased EITC generosity restored or enhanced consumption insurance. The welfare cost of moving to the post-TRA86 system is sizable for relatively risk-averse households facing large income risk but is much more modest for the typical household.