Knowledge that Transforms

Using survey data on consumer product purchases, this paper introduces an approach to estimate jointly individual utility functions and risk perceptions implied by their decisions. The behavioral risk beliefs reflected in consumers' risky decisions differ from the stated probabilities given to them in the survey. These results are not consistent with a Bayesian learning model in which the information respondents utilize is restricted to what the survey presents. The results are, however, potentially consistent with models in which prior risk information is influential or models in which people do not act in a fully rational manner.

The paper is concerned with developing a production theory for the case when some inputs have nonlinear prices because the price depends on endogenous quality. This involves extending the notion of a cost function to the case where nonlinear prices are parameters of costs. After developing the appropriate theory, we apply our results to the case of coal-fired electric power generation where fuel quality depends on sulfur and ash impurities. Environmental regulations induce a negative value on sulfur whereas ash impurities degrade performance and thus reduce production possibilities. A number of empirical results emerge, including significant rates of technological change that are sulfur and ash saving though capital using. This change may explain in part the recent drop in the price of sulfur allowances in the United States.

General equilibrium models of international fluctuations that assume complete asset markets predict that consumption will be highly correlated across countries, while the data display correlations that are rather low. It has become common to characterize this empirical regularity by noting that cross-country consumption correlations tend to be lower than corresponding output correlations. This note reconsiders that charac-terization and demonstrates that it is not particularly robust. It also documents a related regularity that is more pervasive: Consumption fluctuations are more highly correlated with domestic production than with world output. This provides an alternative standard for evaluating models of international fluctuations.

This paper considers the effects for offering a “would-not-vote” option in contingent valuation (CV) questions framed using the referendum format. This approach arises from a suggestion made by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) panel on contingent valuation. The NOAA panel was asked to evaluate the use of this method for estimating the economic value of nonmarketed environmental resources in the context of natural resource damage assessments. This test used the CV questionnaire developed for the study of the Exxon Valdez oil spill conducted by the State of Alaska with in-person interviews. The findings suggest that when those selecting the “would-not-vote” response are treated as having voted “against” the program (a conservative coding), offering this option does not alter (1) the distribution of “for” and “against” responses (2) the estimates of willingness to pay derived from these choices, or (3) the construct validity of the results.

In this paper we examine a number of recent studies that claim to have obtained a well-defined liquidity effect using structural VAR models based on broad measures of money. These studies can be distinguished in terms of the identifying restrictions, sample periods, and frequency of data used. We show that estimation of the structural coefficients of all these models can be achieved by instrumental-variable methods, where the instruments are predetermined variables and the estimated structural errors from other equations in the system. Overall, our judgment is that the evidence for a liquidity effect from these studies is much less certain than suggested in the original papers, primarily because of the poor quality of the instruments used in estimation and the sensitivity of the estimates to the sample period used.

This paper uses data from the Luxembourg Income Study to explore the role of differences in supply shifts in explaining cross-national differences in the rise in earnings inequality. Changes in returns to age and education are estimated for eight countries using a common specification of earnings functions across years and countries. We find that the small overall increase in earnings inequality in many countries reflects large but offsetting changes in returns to skill and changes in inequality within age education cells. Furthermore, these differences in returns to skill can largely be explained by differences in supply shifts.

Empirical investigations of the U.S. macroeconomy often examine only the post-World War II period because very few key data series exist for earlier years. However, this brief time period misses major economic shocks like the Great Depression and World War II. Using a previously unknown data set, this paper solves part of the problem by creating a long-run job vacancy series from 1923 to 1994 based on help-wanted advertising data. Analysis suggests that the series is consistent and has no significant biases.

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Federal Reserve Regulation A imposes formal guidelines on borrowing from the discount window and ensures that the facility is used for appropriate purposes. In a way, this regulation imposes a nonprice mechanism that compels depository institutions to be more prudent in exercising their borrowing privileges. In the 1980s, however, banks became increasingly more reluctant to borrow adjustment credit from the discount window. This behavior is puzzling because discount window guidelines have not changed. This paper investigates the reasons behind the weakened demand for borrowed reserves. Our empirical findings suggest that the growing reluctance to borrow stems from the deteriorating financial position of banks during this period. In particular, banks avoided the discount window because they feared that market participants might have interpreted their visits as a signal of serious funding difficulties.

We show that bank branching tends to mitigate localized market power by broadening the geographic scope of competition among banks, even though branch banking allows banks to differentiate themselves through their choices of branch locations. Banking services at peripheral locations will be priced more competitively when those locales are served by branch networks. We develop a theoretical model in support of this view and offer empirical evidence.