Knowledge that Transforms

Abstract We develop an equilibrium model with moral hazard, which arises because some productivity shocks are privately observed by firm managers only. We characterize the optimal contract and its implications for firm size, growth, and managerial pay-performance sensitivity and exploit them to quantify the severity of the moral hazard problem. Our estimation suggests that unobservable shocks are relatively modest and account for about 10% of the total variation of firm output. Nonetheless, moral-hazard-induced incentive pay is quantitatively significant and accounts for 50% of managerial compensation. Eliminating moral hazard would result in about a 1% increase in aggregate output.

Abstract Using data on international equity portfolio allocations by U.S. mutual funds, we estimate a portfolio expression derived from a standard mean-variance portfolio model extended with portfolio frictions. The optimal portfolio depends on the previous month and the buy-and-hold portfolio shares, and a present discounted value of expected excess returns. We estimate expected return differentials and use them in the portfolio regressions. The estimates imply significant portfolio frictions and a modest rate of risk aversion. While mutual fund portfolios significantly respond to expected returns, portfolio frictions lead to a weaker and a more gradual portfolio response to changes in expected returns. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

Abstract We investigate the effects of financial risk cycles on business cycles, using a panel spanning 73 countries since 1900. Agents use a Bayesian learning model to form their beliefs about risk. We construct a proxy of these beliefs and show that perceived low risk encourages risk-taking, augmenting growth at the cost of accumulating financial vulnerabilities, and, therefore, a reversal in growth follows. The reversal is particularly pronounced when the low-risk environment persists and credit growth is excessive. Global risk cycles have a stronger effect on growth than local risk cycles via their impact on capital flows, investment, and debt-issuer quality. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

Abstract This paper studies how private equity creates value and its consequences for consumer welfare in the insurance industry, where PE investments grew tenfold following the financial crisis. PE firms add value through regulatory and tax arbitrage that increases profits relative to their non-PE counterparts. Crucially, the impact on consumer welfare is nuanced: in the short run, consumers benefit from more favorably priced products. But the arbitrage strategy also exposes them to more risk, as annual expected losses scaled by capital buffers rise by 50 percentage points. This creates the possibility of consumer harm in the event of a downturn. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

Abstract Bank-created money, shadow-bank money, and Treasury bonds all satisfy investors’ demand for liquidity. We measure the quantity of these forms of liquidity and their corresponding liquidity premium in a sample from 1934 to 2016, estimating the substitutability of these assets and the liquidity per unit delivered by each asset. Treasuries and bank transaction deposits are imperfect substitutes, in contrast to perfect substitutes found by Nagel (2016). Bank and nonbank non-transaction deposits are closer substitutes for Treasuries. Our empirical results inform theories of the monetary transmission mechanism running through shifts in asset supplies and models of the coexistence of the shadow banking and regulated banking system. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

Abstract Large-scale shocks directly affect some firms and households and indirectly affect others through general equilibrium spillovers. In this paper, I describe how researchers can directly estimate spillovers using quasi-experimental or experimental variation. I then argue that spillover estimates suffer from distinct sources of mechanical bias that standard empirical tools cannot resolve. These biases are particularly relevant in finance and macroeconomics, where multiple spillover channels and nonlinear effects are common. I offer guidance on how to detect and overcome mechanical biases. An application and several examples highlight that the suggested methods are broadly relevant and can inform policy and multiplier calculations. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

Abstract Taking advantage of the implementation of the 2003 European Commission (EC) directive on financial reporting, we explore the impact of mandatory financial disclosure on mergers and acquisitions (M&A). We find robust evidence that the number (and volume) of private firms becoming an M&A target increases with mandatory disclosure. Analyses of cross-industry differences, deal-level data, and post-deal performance indicate that financial disclosure increases M&A activity by reducing information frictions in the market for corporate control. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online

Abstract We show that search frictions in credit markets affect accepted interest rates and loan sizes and distort consumption. Using data on car loan applications and originations not intermediated by car dealers, we isolate quasi-exogenous variation in both the costs and benefits to searching for credit. After identifying lender-specific policies that price risk discontinuously, we study the differential response to offered interest rates by borrowers who face high and low search costs. High-search-cost borrowers are 10% more likely to accept loan offers with higher markups, consequently originating smaller loans and purchasing older and less expensive cars than lower-search-cost borrowers. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

Abstract This paper investigates the effects of college tuition on student debt and human capital accumulation. We exploit data from a random sample of undergraduate students in the United States and implement a research design that instruments for realized tuition with relatively large changes to the advertised tuition of students who enrolled at the same school in different cohorts. We find that $5,000 in higher tuition causally reduces the probability of graduating with a graduate degree by 3.1 percentage points and increases student debt by $1,480. Higher tuition also leads to a decline in mortgage balances and an increase in credit card delinquencies. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

Abstract In this paper, we infer how the estimates of firm value by “optimists” and “pessimists” evolve in response to information shocks. Specifically, we examine returns and disagreement measures for portfolios of short-sale-constrained stocks that have experienced large gains or large losses. Our analysis suggests the presence of two groups, one of which overreacts to new information and remains biased over about 5 years, and a second group, which underreacts and whose expectations are unbiased after about 1 year. Our results have implications for the belief dynamics that underlie the momentum and long-term reversal effect. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.